Title: A Study of Physical and Biological Factors Determining West Antarctic Peninsula Adlie Penguin Popula
1A Study of Physical and Biological Factors
Determining West Antarctic Peninsula Adélie
Penguin Population DynamicsDissertation
ProposalErik W. Chapman
Oral Qualifying Exam 30 Nov. 2005 CCPO
2Outline
- General Interest and Research Philosophy
- Research and Environmental Context
- Research Questions
- Research Plan
3General Research Interest
- The combined use of modeling, data analysis and
observational techniques to study the
relationship between climate variability and
ecosystem behavior.
4Research Planning Philosophy
- Combine conservative and risky goals to maximize
contribution and chances for successful
completion of research. - Maintain communication with expertise throughout
the process. - Create environment that will allow for on-going
critique and assessment of research.
5Marine Ecosystem Research
- Growing interest in the influence of Climate on
Ecosystems. - Interest in climate variability causing regime
change among multiple stable-states. - The west Antarctic Peninsula (WAP) is an
excellent model where ENSO is known to influence
atmospheric temperature and sea-ice.
6Top Predators and Southern Ocean Research
- Demographics and foraging behavior of seabirds
are being used to index consequences of
environmental variability. - Long-term data-sets and availability of
atmospheric variability indices facilitate
time-series analyses.
7WAP Research
- Underlying mechanisms behind patterns are being
investigated.
Fraser and Hofmann 2003, A predators perspective
on causal links between climate change, physical
forcing and ecosystem response. MEPS
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9Environmental Context
- Warming (0.56 ºC decade-1 Turner et al., 2005)
- Maximum sea-ice coverage becoming less (15,000
km2 year -1 Kwok and Comiso, 2002) - Timing of sea-ice advance and retreat changing
(duration down 0.3 days year -1 Smith et al.,
2002) - Krill populations declining (50 decline since
1976 Atkinson et al., 2004 ) - Antarctic silverfish populations declining
(Adelie diets, net tows Fraser, personal
communciation) - Anvers Island Adelie populations down (40 since
1974 Fraser and Patterson, 1997) - Avian Island Adelie populations up (100 since
1974 Woehler, 2993 Fraser, unpublished data)
10Research Questions
- 1. How is the prey field affected by variation
in circulation and sea-ice? - 2. How is Adélie foraging, chick growth and
fledging weights at breeding colonies affected by
variability in the prey field? - 3. Can these influences explain opposite
population trajectories at ANV and AVI? - 4. How are Adélie penguin population
trajectories affected by variations in the
environmental structure and prey availability
(including future climate scenarios)?
11Atmospheric temperature
Antarctic krill distribution/abundance
Sea-Ice
Circulation
Antarctic silverfish distribution/abundance
Productivity
Adult foraging
Adult survival
Penguin population Trajectory
Chick growth
Death
Fledgling survival, recruitment
Fledge
12Atmospheric temperature
Antarctic krill distribution/abundance
Sea-Ice
Circulation
Antarctic silverfish distribution/abundance
Time-series correlation.
1
Productivity
Adult foraging
Adult survival
Penguin population Trajectory
Chick growth
Death
Fledgling survival, recruitment
Fledge
13Data Sea-ice, silverfish time-series
- Sea-ice data
- NSIDC passive microwave satellite derived ice
concentration. - 25km grid
- Daily and monthly data since Oct. 1978
- Antarctic Silverfish composition
- Diet sample data
- Weekly since 1986 at Anvers Island
- One-time samples from Avian Island since 1995
14Data Processing Sea-ice, silverfish time-series
- Sea-ice
- Average percent coverage (gt15 ) within 100 km
and 200 km of Anvers Island and Avian Islands - Maximum sea-ice extent
- Antarctic silverfish
- Percent composition in Adélie diet
- Spearman rank correlation
15100 km and 200 km ranges from colonies
lt15 ice coverage
gt15 ice coverage
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17Anticipated Contributions Sea-ice, silverfish
time-series
- Advance understanding of the conditions
surrounding disappearance of silverfish from diet
at ANV. - Identify the age-class of fish present in the
diet at ANV, AVI? - Results will suggest physical-biological
processes affecting the distribution of
silverfish on the peninsula. - Results will help in parameterizing modeling
efforts.
18Atmospheric temperature
Virtual population analysis.
2
Antarctic krill distribution/abundance
Sea-Ice
Circulation
Antarctic silverfish distribution/abundance
Time-series correlation.
1
Productivity
Adult foraging
Adult survival
Penguin population Trajectory
Chick growth
Death
Fledgling survival, recruitment
Fledge
19Data Sea-ice, krill demographics time-series
- Sea-ice data
- NSIDC passive microwave satellite derived ice
concentration. - 25km grid
- Daily and monthly data since Oct. 1978
- Antarctic krill data
- Diet sample data
- Weekly since 1986 at Anvers Island
- One-time samples from Avian Island since 1995
20Data Processing Sea-ice, krill demographics
time-series
- Sea-ice
- Average percent coverage (gt15 ) within 100 km
and 200 km of Anvers Island and Avian Islands - Maximum sea-ice extent
- Antarctic krill
- Virtual Population Analysis
- Krill growth rates (between seasons (ANV, AVI),
within seasons (ANV)) - Krill longevity (ANV)
- Recruitment events (ANV)
- Spearman rank correlation
- Krill growth rates only. Relationship between
krill longevity and recruitment events assessed
qualitatively.
21Fraser and Hofmann 2003
22d
Growth Rate
Relative presence
T1
T2
Krill length
23Anticipated Contributions Sea-ice, krill
demographics time-series
- Quantify the relationship between physical
environment and vital rates in krill. - Explore the relationship between changes in the
physical environment and krill population
dynamics. - Provide important relationship that will guide
parameterization in the model.
24Atmospheric temperature
Virtual population analysis.
2
Antarctic krill distribution/abundance
Sea-Ice
Circulation
Antarctic silverfish distribution/abundance
Time-series correlation.
1
Productivity
Adult foraging
Adult survival
Penguin population Trajectory
Adult foraging model.
3
Chick growth
Death
Fledgling survival, recruitment
Fledge
25ADULT FORAGING MODEL SCHEMATIC
Prey Field
Ingestion, Penguin adult
- Ingestion, chick
Chick Growth Model
Ingested food beyond Individual needs
Assimilated mass
- Respiratory losses ( swimming resting
foraging)
Telemetry Data
Adult growth ( or -)
Estimate from literature
Survivorship (reproductive cost)
26Data Adult Foraging Model
- Telemetry studies (ANV, AVI1999 to present)
- Based on field studies (Fraser)
- Foraging location, duration
- Activity budget (time spent diving, swimming,
resting) - Energetics data
- BMR, FMR for Swimming, resting on ice, on land
from literature. - Feeding rate
- Based on estimates from stomach content mass,
energetic expenditure during foraging trip (e.g.
Chappell et al. 1993) - Mass(t) of adult penguins (ANV)
- Based on field data (Fraser) 1986 to present?
27Anticipated Contributions Adult foraging model
- Assess our knowledge of the linkage between
physical-biological environment and foraging
behavior - Provide the mechanistic framework to test the
influence of environmental conditions and
variability on penguin foraging. - Model may be modified to examine other processes
of interest
28Atmospheric temperature
Virtual population analysis.
2
Antarctic krill distribution/abundance
Sea-Ice
Circulation
Antarctic silverfish distribution/abundance
Time-series correlation.
1
Productivity
Adult foraging
Adult survival
Penguin population Trajectory
Adult foraging model.
3
Chick growth
Death
Fledgling survival, recruitment
Fledge
Chick growth model.
4
29CHICK GROWTH MODEL SCHEMATIC
Adult foraging model
Ingestion, Penguin chick
Assimilated mass
Field collected data
Estimated from literature
- Respiratory loss
Net productivity
Chick growth
Fledge
Death
Recruitment
30Data Chick Growth Model
- Salihoglu parameterizations
- Field collected data.
- Feeding rate
- Daily weighing of marked chicks during crèche
period to derive feeding rates, chick growth. - Instantaneous growth measurements at AVI 1999
to present. - Caloric content of prey (t).
- Bomb calorimeter at ANV and AVI.
31Anticipated Contributions Chick growth model
- Will allow for investigation of the influence of
diet complexity on the growth of chicks. - The model will be parameterized to assess
conditions on the west Antarctic Peninsula.
32Atmospheric temperature
Virtual population analysis.
2
Antarctic krill distribution/abundance
Sea-Ice
Circulation
Antarctic silverfish distribution/abundance
Time-series correlation.
1
Productivity
Adult foraging
Adult survival
Penguin population Trajectory
Adult foraging model.
3
Chick growth
Death
Fledgling survival, recruitment
Fledge
Leslie Matrix Simulations.
Chick growth modeling.
5
4
33Data Leslie Matrix Simulations
- Long-term demographic studies (circum-Antarctic)
- Modified to represent populations on west
Antarctic Peninsula (banding studies at ANV)
34Linked Model Simulations
- Historical conditions at Anvers Island
- Current conditions at Anvers Island and Avian
Island - Future climate scenarios
35Anticipated Contributions Combined model
simulations
- Will quantify the influence of model simulations
varying the physical environment and prey field
on penguin population trajectory. - Models could be modified and expanded to address
future research questions. - Will assess state of current knowledge.
36Questions? Comments? Concerns?
- Planning is on-going so..