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Recovery Goal, Objectives, and Scenarios

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Title: Recovery Goal, Objectives, and Scenarios


1
Recovery Goal, Objectives, and Scenarios
  • Oregon Lower Columbia
  • Recovery Plan
  • April 18, 2006

2
Hierarchical Viability Criteria(TRT recs)
ESU
ESU Status
Major Population Group, Strata, Geographic Region
Stratum 2
Stratum 3
Stratum 1
Pop Status
Pop Attributes
3
ESU Criteria
  • All historical strata should have low risk of
    extinction
  • Until all ESU viability criteria are met, no
    population can deteriorate
  • More pops should be targeted for recovery than
    needed (all attempts will not be successful)
  • Case specific evaluation can provide exceptions

4
Stratum Criteria
  • How many and which populations?
  • Should consider
  • Catastrophes
  • Diversity
  • Metapopulation Process
  • Historical Reference
  • ROUGHLY greater of 2 or 50 of historical
    populations need to be viable

5
Population Level Criteria
  • Viable population is lt5 extinction risk in 100
    years
  • Viable Salmonid Population (VSP) Parameters
  • Abundance
  • Productivity
  • Spatial Structure
  • Diversity

6
Washingtons Approach
  • NOAA approved interim plan April 2005
  • Oregon populations considered in consultation
    with ODFW
  • Oregon retained option to modify priorities and
    targets for Oregon populations

7
Example Population Trajectories Corresponding to
Scenario Designations
8
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9
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10
Oregon Can Do Better?
  • Our Approach
  • Aim high
  • No initial population priorities
  • Determine management actions to reach proposed
    goal
  • Evaluate the feasibility of reaching proposed
    goal
  • Choose preferred alternative

11
Proposed Recovery Goal
  • Populations of naturally produced salmon and
    steelhead are sufficiently abundant, productive,
    and diverse that the ESU as a whole
  • (a) will be self-sustaining, and
  • (b) will provide significant ecological,
    cultural, and economic benefits

12
Recovery Objectives
  • By the year 2050, Oregon intends to achieve the
    following objectives
  • All Lower Columbia salmon and steelhead
    populations are highly viable ( 1 POE)
    throughout their historic range
  • The majority of Lower Columbia salmon and
    steelhead populations are capable of contributing
    social, cultural, economic and aesthetic benefits
    on a regular and sustainable basis
  • Out-of-basin limiting factors to recovery are
    reduced to the level that they do not pose a
    significant limitation on the beneficial effects
    of in-basin recovery efforts.

13
Actions Needed to Accomplish theGoal and
Objectives
  • Management actions are based on a strategic
    priority framework that recognizes the importance
    of protection, enhancement, and restoration
    throughout the life cycle of the species.
  • Collaborative management processes and
    approaches, including both volunteer and
    incentive-based programs, encourage restoration
    of habitat.
  • Agencies and residents employ a diversity of
    management approaches across the ESU which meets
    both social and biological objectives.

14
This vision for recovery encompasses ESA
delisting goals in the sense that ESA delisting
goals would be achieved while working towards
this broader vision
15
Recovery Targets forLower Columbia Coho
16
Historical Comparisons?
  • Columbia Basin 600,000 coho (Chapman 1986)
  • 300-400k below Bonneville
  • 80? Washington side (Cowlitz)
  • Oregon tribs 60 80k
  • LCFRB production potential
  • 150,000
  • Proposed Goal OR tribs 40-50 of historical

17
Recovery Targets forWinter Steelhead
18
Is Everything A Priority?
  • Yes, but strategic priorities will emerge
  • Range of fixes and response times will vary
  • Funding constraints will force priority setting
  • We will learn from our successes and mistakes
  • Unforeseen circumstances

19
Questions?
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