Impacts de la crise mondiale sur les enfants en Afrique de l - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

Loading...

PPT – Impacts de la crise mondiale sur les enfants en Afrique de l PowerPoint presentation | free to download - id: 1c8b81-ZDc1Z



Loading


The Adobe Flash plugin is needed to view this content

Get the plugin now

View by Category
About This Presentation
Title:

Impacts de la crise mondiale sur les enfants en Afrique de l

Description:

The global economic crisis Including children in the policy response ... Regional: Sami Bibi, John Cockburn, Massa Coulibaly, Isma l Fofana and Luca Tiberti ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

Number of Views:36
Avg rating:3.0/5.0
Slides: 11
Provided by: johnco93
Learn more at: http://www.unicef.org
Category:

less

Write a Comment
User Comments (0)
Transcript and Presenter's Notes

Title: Impacts de la crise mondiale sur les enfants en Afrique de l


1
Impacts de la crise mondiale sur les enfants en
Afrique de lOuest et du Centre
Burkina Faso Lacina Balma and Samuel
Kabore Cameroon Christian Emini and Paul
Ningaye Ghana Theodore Antwi-Asare, Edgar Cooke
and Daniel Twerefou Regional Sami Bibi, John
Cockburn, Massa Coulibaly, Ismaël Fofana and Luca
Tiberti Commissioned by UNICEFs West and
Central Africa Regional Office
The global economic crisis Including children
in the policy response ODI-UNICEF, London,
November 9-10, 2009
2
The Poverty and Economic Policy (PEP) Research
network
  • Capacity building, research funding and promotion
    of developing country researchers
  • Research grants (and scientific support) to
    conduct policy research on poverty issues.
  • Open and competitive global call for proposals
    (deadline Jan. 6, 2010)
  • 150 projects in Africa, Asia and Latin America
    (45.7 female 22.5 under 30) Since 2002
  • Activities training workshops, study visits,
    distance support, general meetings, national and
    international policy conferences, working papers,
    journal articles, policy briefs, presentations in
    international conferences, newsletters.
  • Child welfare topics Policy impact evaluation,
    community-based poverty monitoring, macro-micro
    shock and policy simulations, multidimensional
    poverty analysis, implementing the capabilities
    approach, incidence analysis
  • Offices Africa (Dakar), Asia (Manila), Latin
    America (Lima) and Quebec.
  • Funding AusAID, CIDA and IDRC www.pep-net.org

3
Objective Simulate child welfare impacts of the
global crisis and policy responses in Burkina
Faso, Cameroon and Ghana (and S. Africa)
4
  • Methodology
  • Macro impacts CGE model capturing main channels
    of impact of the global crisis on the national
    economy, notably prices, wages and employment.
  • Child welfare impacts
  • Monetary poverty Based on changes in prices,
    wages, employment and remittances
  • Hunger (caloric adequacy) Consumption behavior
    nutritional tables
  • School/child labor participation Econometric
    estimation f(real income)
  • Health access/choice of supplier Econometric
    estimation f(real income)
  • Simulations
  • Business as usual (no crisis) historic trends
    (6-8 years)
  • Crisis
  • 2009 Various sources (IMF, UNCTAD, national,
    etc.)
  • 2010 Stagnation, except import prices
  • 2011 Back to historic growth trends
  • Policy response (financed by foreign aid equal to
    1 of 2008 GDP)
  • Food subsidies
  • Child cash transfers proxy means, no
    administrative costs, sharing

5
Impacts on monetary poverty and hunger in BF
6
Education and Child Labour 6 to 10 years
7
Education and Child Labour 11 to 14 years
8
Health 0 to 14 years
9
  • Targetting (proxy means)
  • Cash transfers target predicted poor children
    f(demographics, housing conditions, durable
    goods, region) easily observable and
    non-manipulable characteristics

Predicted status Predicted status Predicted status Predicted status Predicted status Predicted status
national national urban urban rural rural
Actual status non-poor poor non-poor poor non-poor poor
Burkina
non-poor 63.1 36.9 74.7 25.3 59.4 40.6
poor 23.4 76.6 9.6 90.4 24.4 75.6
Cameroon
non-poor 70.0 30.0 93.3 6.7 41.7 58.3
poor 9.9 90.1 58.1 41.9 5.1 94.9
Ghana
non-poor 60.8 39.2 67.9 32.1 55.0 45.0
poor 19.2 80.8 23.9 76.1 17.9 82.1
Exclusion errors Inclusion errors Cash transfer
amount Burkina Faso 12340 CFA francs per
child Cameroon 21065 CFA francs per
child Ghana 23.10 cedis per child
10
Impact of the global crisis on child povertyin
West and Central Africa
  • Take-home lessons
  • Crisis brings many shocks imports, exports, FDI,
    aid, remittances
  • Complex impacts wages, employment,
    self-employment income, consumer prices
  • Strongly increases monetary poverty and hunger
    (up to 10 percentage points)
  • Mildly reduces schooling and recourse to (modern)
    health services (up to 1 percentage point), while
    increasing child labor
  • Food subsidies marginally offset the impacts of
    the crisis
  • (Well-) targeted cash transfers are far more
    effective
  • (Pursuit of fiscal balance further (slightly)
    worsens the impacts)
  • Future work focus subsidies on poor child foods,
    focus CTs on youngest children, other financing
    (domestic taxes, deficit, other cuts), other
    dimensions (mortality, morbidity, nutritional
    status, etc.)
About PowerShow.com