Urban sprawl and transport the case of Oslo and Bergen a presentation of research activities at TOI

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Urban sprawl and transport - the case of Oslo and
Bergena presentation of research activities at
TOI

• Jon Inge Lian, Institute of Transport Economics,
  Oslo
• COST 355 meeting, Paris 1. July 2004

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Background

• Car ownership
• Major cities
• Oslo 0,8 mill
• Bergen 0,21 m.
• Stavanger 0,17 m.
• Trondheim 0,15 m.

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Data

• National Travel Surveys 1992, 1998, 2001
• Registers on population, cars and income
• Local travel surveys

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Analysis Oslo 1992, NTS
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Discussions

• Travel time (from transport models) proved better
  than distance, linear relationship?
• Travel time and time difference (car transit)
  and number of children were significant
• Regressions on zones gave similar results
• But time difference were not significant, due to
  local differences in walking distances to transit
• Travel time, income and single unit dwelling had
  high t-values (5)

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Urban sprawl analysis Oslo 1998

• Based on 1900 census districts
• Regression on cars per adult, R2 0.66
• The effect of distance from CBD not very strong

Change from 2.7 km to 7.4 km from CBD gt 0,085
cars/adult
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Cars per adult by distance from Oslo c
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Cars per adult by distance from Oslo c
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Cars per adult by distance from Oslo c
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Cars per adult by road distance from Oslo c
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Car use and distance, Oslo 1998
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The case of Bergen

• Regression on cars per adult, R2 0.76
• Even weaker effect of distance

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Cars per adult by distance from Bergen c
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Cars per adult by distance from Bergen c
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Residential location and travel
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Other locations and travel
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Workplace location and travel
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Summary

• Residential location effect effect car use mainly
  by differences in car ownership
• The distance effect is diminishing after 6 km
• Change in settlement pattern is very slow mixed
  trends
• Workplace location strongly affect car use
• Workplace and shopping centre location change at
  a higher rate than housing, but income growth
  is by far the most important driver of car
  ownership and use.
• Future studies based on NTS 2001 will elaborate
  more on socio-demographics and travel
  alternatives.