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Decision Tools to Evaluate Vulnerabilities and Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change The Water Res

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Title: Decision Tools to Evaluate Vulnerabilities and Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change The Water Res


1
Decision Tools to Evaluate Vulnerabilities and
Adaptation Strategies to Climate Change The
Water Resource Sector
2
Outline
  • Vulnerability and adaptation with respect to
    water resources
  • Viewing water resources from a services
    perspective
  • Hydrologic implications of climate change for
    water resources
  • Tools/models
  • WEAP model presentation
  • Role for Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA)

3
Effective VA Assessments
  • Defining VA assessment
  • Often VA focuses on analysis over assessment
  • Why? Because the focus is on biophysical impacts,
    e.g., hydrologic response, crop yields, forests,
    etc.
  • Assessment is an integrating process requiring
    the interface of physical and social science and
    public policy

4
Effective VA Assessments (continued)
  • General questions
  • What is the assessment trying to influence?
  • How can the science/policy interface be most
    effective?
  • How can the participants be most effective in the
    process?
  • General problems
  • Participants bring differing objectives/
    expertise
  • These differences often lead to dissention/
    differing opinions this is where MCA can help
    in prioritization

5
Effective VA Assessments (continued)
  • To be valuable, the assessment process requires
  • Relevancy
  • Credibility
  • Legitimacy
  • Consistent participation
  • An interdisciplinary process
  • The assessment process often requires a tool
  • The tool is usually a model or suite of models
  • These models serve as the interface
  • This interface is a bridge for dialogue between
    scientists and policy makers

6
The Water Resource SectorWaters Trade-Off
Landscape
7
Water Resources from a Services Perspective
  • Not just an evaluation of rainfall-runoff or
    streamflow
  • But an evaluation of the potential impacts of
    global warming on the goods and services provided
    by freshwater systems

8
Freshwater Ecosystem Services
Extractable Direct Use Indirect Use
9
Water Resources A Critical VA Sector
  • Critical to both managed and natural systems
  • Human activity influences both systems

Managed Systems
External Pressure
Product, good or service Process Control
services
Example Agriculture
Example Wetlands
10
Hydrologic External Pressures related to
Climate Change
  • Precipitation amount
  • Global average increase
  • Marked regional differences
  • Precipitation frequency and intensity
  • Less frequent, more intense (Trenberth et al.,
    2003)
  • Evaporation and transpiration
  • Increase total evaporation
  • Regional complexities due to plant/atmosphere
    interactions

11
Specific Pressures Retreating Himalayan glaciers
  • Forecasts of 25 losses globally by 2050 50 by
    2100

12
Specific Pressures Retreating Himalayan glaciers
  • Meltwaters are depended upon during dry season to
    sustain low flow periods
  • Probable diminished volume and earlier timing of
    flows
  • Has implications for hydropower production,
    agricultural demands, and river and riparian
    quality and ecosystem needs

13
Specific Pressures Sea level rise
  • Sea level could rise by as much as 50 cm by 2100
    (IPCC, 2001)
  • For islands, coasts
  • sea level rise, inundation of coast lines, and
    decreasing infiltration of precipitation will
    lead to shrinking groundwater lenses
  • Displacement of people will cause new localized
    stresses on water resource allocation
  • water tables may rise to land surface, causing
    full evapotranspiration and diminished water
    quality (Burns 2000)

14
Specific Pressures Extreme weather
  • Typhoons and cyclones could increase by 50-60
    (NASA, 2001), with intensities increasing by
    10-20 (IPCC 2001).
  • Possible doubling of frequency of 100 mm/day
    rainfall events and 15-18 increase in rainfall
    intensity over large areas of the Pacific (IPCC
    2001).
  • This may lead to greater soil erosion and runoff,
    and less water available for infiltration and
    evapotranspiration

15
Examples of Adaptation in Water Resources
  • Construction/modification of physical
    infrastructure
  • Canal linings
  • Closed conduits instead of open channels
  • Integrating separate reservoirs into a single
    system
  • Reservoirs/hydro-plants/delivery systems
  • Raising dam wall height
  • Increasing canal size
  • Removing sediment from reservoirs for more
    storage
  • Inter-basin water transfers

16
Examples of Adaptation in Water Resources
(continued)
  • Adaptive management of existing water supply
    systems
  • Change operating rules
  • Use conjunctive surface/groundwater supply
  • Physically integrate reservoir operation system
  • Coordinate supply/demand
  • Indigenous options

17
Examples of Adaptation in Water Resources
(continued)
  • Policy, conservation, efficiency, and technology
  • Domestic
  • Municipal and in-home re-use of water
  • Leak repair
  • Rainwater collection for non-potable uses
  • Low-flow appliances
  • Dual-supply systems (potable and nonpotable)
  • Agriculture
  • Irrigation timing and efficiency
  • Drainage re-use, use of wastewater effluent
  • High value/low water use crops
  • Drip, micro-spray, low-energy, precision
    application irrigation systems
  • Salt-tolerant crops that can use drain water

18
Examples of Adaptation Water Supply (continued)
  • Policy, conservation, efficiency, and technology
    (continued)
  • Industry
  • Water re-use and recycling
  • Closed cycle and/or air cooling
  • More efficient hydropower turbines
  • Cooling ponds, wet towers and dry towers
  • Energy (hydropower)
  • Reservoir re-operation
  • Cogeneration (beneficial use of waste heat)
  • Additional reservoirs and hydropower stations
  • Low head run of the river hydropower
  • Market/price-driven transfers to other activities
  • Using water price to shift water use between
    sectors

19
Tools in Water Resource VA Studies
  • What tools are available to understand both water
    resource vulnerabilities and evaluate adaptation
    strategies?
  • How can stakeholders be engaged in these
    processes?

20
Types of Water Resources Models
  • Hydraulic biophysical process models describing
    streamflow, flooding
  • Hydrology rainfall/runoff processes
  • Planning water resource systems models
  • Which model?...
  • What questions are you trying to answer?

21
Hydraulic Model
  • Critical questions
  • How fast, deep is river flowing
  • How do changes to flow and channel morphology
    impact sediment transport and services provided
    (fish habitats, recreation, etc).

22
Hydrology Model
  • Critical questions
  • How does rainfall on a catchment translate into
    flow in a river?
  • What pathways does water follow as it moves
    through a catchment?
  • How does movement along these pathways impact the
    magnitude, timing, duration, and frequency of
    river flows, as well as water quality?

23
Planning Model
  • Critical questions
  • How should water be allocated to various uses in
    time of shortage?
  • How can these operations be constrained to
    protect the services provided by the river?
  • How should infrastructure in the system (e.g.,
    dams, diversion works) be operated to achieve
    maximum benefit (economic, social, ecological)?
  • How will allocation, operations, and operating
    constraints change if new management strategies
    are introduced into the system?

24
Tools to Use for the Assessment Referenced Water
Models
  • Operational and hydraulic
  • HEC
  • HEC-HMS event-based rainfall-runoff (provides
    input to HEC-RAS for doing 1-d flood inundation
    mapping)
  • HEC-RAS one-dimensional steady and unsteady
    flow
  • HEC-ResSim reservoir operation modeling
  • WaterWare
  • RiverWare
  • MIKE11
  • Delft3d

25
Hydraulic Water Management Model
  • HEC-HMS watershed scale, event based hydrologic
    simulation, of rainfall-runoff processes
  • Sub-daily rainfall-runoff processes of small
    catchments
  • Free, download from web

26
Tools to Use for the Assessment Referenced Water
Models (continued)
  • Planning/ hydrology
  • WEAP21
  • Aquarius
  • SWAT
  • IRAS (Interactive River and Aquifer Simulation)
  • RIBASIM
  • MIKE 21 and BASIN

27
Current Focus Planning and Hydrologic
Implications of Climate Change
  • Selected planning/hydrology models can be
    deployed on PC, extensive documentation, ease of
    use, free (or free to developing nations)
  • Aquarius
  • SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool)
  • WEAP21 (Water Evaluation and Planning)

28
Physical Hydrology and Water Management Models
  • AQUARIS advantage Has economic efficiency
    criterion requiring the reallocation of stream
    flows until the net marginal return in all water
    uses is equal
  • Cannot be climatically driven flows prescribed
    by user
  • Economic focus

29
Physical Hydrology and Water Management Models
(continued)
  • SWAT advantage
  • Can predict effect of management decisions on
    water, sediment, nutrient and pesticide yields on
    ungauged river basins. Considers complex water
    quality constituents.
  • Rainfall-runoff, river routing on a daily
    timestep
  • Focuses on supply side of water balance

30
Physical Hydrology and Water Management Models
(continued)
  • WEAP21 advantage Seamlessly integrates watershed
    hydrologic processes with water resources
    management
  • Can be climatically driven
  • Based on holistic approach of integrated water
    resources management (IWRM) supply and demand

31
IWRM Principles
  • Freshwater is finite and has economic and social
    value in its competing uses
  • Water is essential to sustain life and safe water
    should be accessible to all
  • Water development and management should be
    participatory, involving users, planners, policy
    makers at all levels and recognize that women in
    particular play a central role in water provision
    for their families.

1992 International Conference on Water and
Environment, Dublin, Ireland
32
IWRM Principles
  • Promotes the coordinated development and
    management of land, water and related resources
    to maximize social and economic welfare in
    equitable way without comprising sustainability
  • Cross-sectoral integration in water policy
    development

Global Water Partnership
33
IWRM Resources
Global Water Partnership at www.gwp.forum.org
34
Overview WEAP21
  • Hydrology and planning
  • Planning (water distribution) examples and
    exercises
  • Adding hydrology to the model
  • User interface
  • Scale
  • Data requirements and resources
  • Calibration and validation
  • Results
  • Scenarios
  • Licensing and registration

35
A Simple System with WEAP21
36
An Infrastructure Constraint
37
A Regulatory Constraint
38
Different Priorities
  • For example, the demands of large farmers (70
    units) might be Priority 1 in one scenario
    whereas the demands of smallholders (40 units)
    may be Priority 1 in another

39
Different Preferences
30
10
  • For example, a center pivot operator may prefer
    to take water from a tributary because of lower
    pumping costs

0
90
40
WEAP and Planning
  • Provides a common framework for transparently
    organizing water resource data at any scale
    desired local watershed, regional or
    transboundary river basin
  • Scenarios can be easily developed to explore
    possible water futures
  • Implications of various policies can be evaluated

41
WEAP Capabilities
  • Can do
  • High level planning at local and regional scales
  • Demand management
  • Water allocation
  • Infrastructure evaluation
  • Cannot do
  • Sub-daily operations
  • Optimization of supply and demand (e.g. cost
    minimizations or social welfare maximization)

42
Uses of WEAP
  • Policy Research
  • Alternative Allocations
  • Climate Change
  • Land Use Change
  • Infrastructure Planning
  • Capacity Building
  • Negotiation
  • Stakeholder Engagement

43
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44
WEAP is Scenario-driven
  • The scenario editor readily accommodates analysis
    of
  • Climate change scenarios and assumptions
  • Future demand assumptions
  • Future watershed development assumptions

45
Futures and Scenarios Why?
  • Scenarios a systematic way of thinking about the
    future
  • To gain a better understanding of the possible
    implications of decisions (or non-decisions
    across scales and time
  • To support decision-making

46
Driving Forces
  • Technological
  • Computer and information technology
  • Biotechnology
  • Miniaturization
  • Environmental/Climatic
  • Increasing global stress
  • Local degradation
  • Some remediation in richer countries
  • Governance
  • Global institutions
  • Democratic government
  • Role for civil society in decision-making
  • Demographic
  • More people
  • Urbanization
  • Older
  • Economic
  • Growing integration of global economy
  • Social
  • Increasing inequality
  • Persistent poverty
  • Cultural
  • Spread of values of consumerism and individualism
  • Nationalist and religious reaction

47
Who are the Actors?
  • Government
  • Private sector
  • Civil society
  • Public
  • Rich farmers
  • Poor farmers
  • Urban users
  • Environmentalists
  • Or?

48
Consider Sources of Uncertainty
Ignorance
Understanding is limited
Surprise
The unexpected and the novel can alter directions

Volition
Human choice matters
49
Forecast and Backcast
Where do we want to go? How do we get there?
50
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51
WEAP21 Program Structure
52
The WEAP21 Graphical User Interface
Languages Interface Only English French Chinese S
panish
53
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54
Data Requirements
  • WEAP allows the user to determine the level of
    complexity desired
  • according to the questions that need to be
    addressed
  • the availability of data

55
From the simple
56
To the complex.
57
Data Requirements Supply
  • User-prescribed supply (riverflow given as fixed
    time series)
  • Time series data of riverflows (headflows) cfs
  • River network (connectivity)
  • Alternative supply via physical hydrology (let
    the watershed generate riverflow)
  • Watershed attributes
  • Area, land cover . . .
  • Climate
  • Precipitation, temperature, windspeed, and
    relative humidity

58
Letting Climate Drive Hydrology
59
The WEAP 2-Bucket Hydrology Module
Surface Runoff f(Pe,z1,1/LAI)
Sw
Dw
60
One 2-Bucket Model per Land Class
61
Integrated Hydrology/Water Management Analytical
Framework in WEAP21
62
Data Requirements Demand
  • Water demand data multi-sectoral
  • Municipal and industrial demand
  • Aggregated by sector (manufacturing, tourism,
    etc.)
  • Disaggregated by population (e.g., use/capita,
    use/socioeconomic group)
  • Agricultural demands
  • Aggregated by area ( hectares, annual
    water-use/hectare)
  • Disaggregated by crop water requirements
  • Ecosystem demands (in-stream flow requirements)

63
Data Requirements (continued)
SECTOR
SUBSECTOR
END-USE
DEVICE
Furrow Sprinkler Drip Standard Efficient ... K
itchen Bathing Washer Toilet ...
Agriculture Industry Municipal
Irrigation ... Cooling Processing Others Sing
le Family Multi-family ...
Cotton Rice Wheat ... Electric
Power Petroleum Paper ... South City West
City ...
64
Example Data Resources
  • Indigenous knowledge!
  • Climate
  • www.apdrc.soest.hawaii.edu
  • (Asia Pacific Data Research Center)
  • Hydrology
  • www.grdc.bafg.de
  • (Global Runoff Data Center)
  • GIS
  • www.asian.gu.edu/au
  • (Asian Spatial Information and Analysis
    Network)
  • General Resources
  • www.weap21.org

65
Calibration and Validation
  • Model evaluation criteria
  • Flows along mainstem and tributaries
  • Reservoir storage and release
  • Water diversions from other basins
  • Agricultural water demand and delivery
  • Municipal and industrial water demands and
    deliveries
  • Groundwater storage trends and levels

66
Modeling Streamflow
67
Looking at Results
68
What next?
  • How can output from WEAP, or any water resource
    model for that matter, be organized and analyzed
    to select adaptation strategies?...
  • Stakeholder-driven multi-criteria analysis can
    help

69
Multi-criteria Analysis (MCA)
  • Any structured approach used to determine overall
    preferences among alternative options, where the
    alternatives can accomplish several objectives
  • Is particularly useful to situations where a
    single criterion would fall short, and allows
    decision-makers to address a range of relevant
    factors

70
MCA Scope
  • All sectors, regions, livelihoods, ecosystems,
    etc.
  • Has been used extensively in water resources
    planning, coastal zone management, agricultural
    development, and stakeholder processes

71
MCA Key Outputs
  • A single preferred option, or
  • A short list of preferred options, or
  • A characterization of acceptable and unacceptable
    possiblities

72
MCA Key Inputs
  • Evaluation criteria
  • Relevant metrics for those criteria

73
MCAWEAP Motivation
  • Develop an interactive computer tool to
    facilitate multi-criteria assessment for water
    resource options in a stakeholder context
  • Designed specifically to be used in conjunction
    with outputs from the WEAP model and stakeholder
    processes to develop, weight and apply evaluation
    criteria to adaptation options

74
MCAWEAP History
  • MCA-WEAP is a new Excel macros-based model, built
    off of NAPAssess, a tool developed by SEI for use
    by Sudan and Yemen in their NAPA processes
  • Now reshaped to focus exclusively on adaptation
    options around water used so far in Netherlands
    Climate Assistance Program (NCAP) studies
  • ensure adequate stakeholder representation
  • Identify CC adaptation strategies
  • establish country-driven criteria to evaluate and
    prioritize
  • Make concensus-based recommendations for
    adaptation initiatives
  • Open source, and still a BETA version!

75
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76
MCAWEAP Capabilities
  • Streamlines the multi-criteria analysis process
    by
  • Housing all relevant project information on a
    single platform
  • Supporting a transparent, user-friendly process
    for developing, weighting, and applying
    evaluation criteria
  • Producing a ranked set of alternatives

77
MCAWEAP Steps
  • Assess vulnerability priorities
  • Identify key stakeholders
  • Identify potential adaptation strategies
  • Develop stakeholder-driven evaluation criteria to
    determine trade-offs
  • Assign weights to criteria
  • Prioritize adaptation options for best meeting
    the needs of those most vulnerable

78
Licensing WEAP
  • Go to www.weap21.org and register for a new
    license (free for government, university, and
    non-profit organizations in developing countries)
  • Register WEAP under Help menu and select
    Register WEAP
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