Current%20IEA%20analysis%20on%20Hydrogen

1
Current IEA analysis on Hydrogen

• Dolf Gielen and Lew Fulton
• International Energy Agency
• ETPD
• Intl Energy Workshop
• IEA, 22 June 2004

2
IEA Analytical Work

• The World Energy Investment Outlook (WEIO 2003)
  included analysis of hydrogen, fuel cells and
  other advanced technologies, based on ETP data
• The IEA Energy Technology Perspectives (ETP)
  model is used to assess the economic implication
  of the Hydrogen and Fuel Cells economy compared
  to other options
• Joint Industry IEA transportation scenario
  analysis.

3
Some Well-Known Reasons for a Switch to Hydrogen

• Oil dependency is a headache (supply security,
  economic impact of price fluctuations)
• Kyoto is by far not enough (environment)
• High efficiency Fuel Cell vehicles and
  distributed power generation require hydrogen
  fuel
• Industry policy get an important share of the
  market by being the first.

4
ButPast experience shows that a technology
transition only happens if there is a clear need

• On a global scale we are not running out of oil
  in the next 25 years, even in case of a 70
  demand growth (WEO 2002)
• Post-Kyoto CO2 policy goals are unclear
• Many other GHG emission mitigation measures are
  less costly
• Hydrogen is not a primary energy carrier. Its
  supply security and environmental benefits are
  not a given fact
• Transport competes with other sectors for
  hydrogen feedstocks
• The technical and economic feasibility of a
  hydrogen transport energy system is unclear.

5
A Lot of Uncertainty Frequently Asked Questions

• Are high political expectations for the near term
  realistic ?
• Can technical and cost issues be solved ?
• What about hydrogen hybrids/ICEs ?
• Does it make sense to use scarce and costly
  electricity from renewables for H2 production ?
• Can CO2 Capture Electrification be an
  alternative for a Hydrogen Economy?
• Can energy security and climate change policies
  speed-up the market ?
• What are the cost of a learning-by-doing strategy
  ?
• How to overcome the Chickenor-Egg problem
  (transition issues) ?

6
Projected H2 Production Cost(CO2-free options
only)
Source IEA 2003
Source IEA 2003
7
Future Transport H2 Supply Cost Higher than
Gasoline
COST /GJ Gasol. Diesel Nat. Gas H2 NG no CO2 H2 Coal no CO2 H2 Biom. H2 On-s Wind H2 Off-s Wind H2 Solar Th. H2 Solar PV H2 Nuc. H2 CHP HTGR
Fuel/Electr 25-29 /bbl 3-4 LNG imp. 3-5 LNG imp. 1-2 2-5 3-4 /kWh 4-5.5 /kWh 6-8 /kWh 12-20 /kWh 2.5-3.5 /kWh
Feedstock 4-5 3-4 3.8-6.3 1.3-2.7 2.9-7.1 10-13 13-18 20-26 39-65 8-11
Process 2 NA 1.2-2.7 4.7-6.3 5-6 5 5 5 5 5 8-23
Production 6-7 3-4 5-9 6-9 8-13 15-18 18-23 25-31 44-70 13-16 8-23
Distribution lt1-1 lt1-1 2 2 2-5 2-5 2-5 2-5 2-5 2 2
Refueling 2 4 5-7 5-7 5-7 5-7 5-7 5-7 5-7 5-7 5-7
Total Supply Cost 8-10 7-9 12-18 13-18 15-25 22-30 25-35 32-43 52-82 20-25 15-32
Source IEA 2003
8
But Efficiency Could Make Fuel Cost Competitive

Source IEA 2003
9
The FC Vehicle Cost Problem

• FCV currently leased at 10,000/month
  (3,000-6,000/kW)
• FCV production cost large-scale plant
  200-350/kW (ICE lt50/kW )
• FC lifetime 30-50 of ICE life span
• FC RD Target 50-100/kW (comparable to current
  ICEs)
• How to achieve cost reductions
• Economies of scale and learning-by-doing
• RD Reduced membrane and catalysts cost,
  extended life span

10
Hydrogen FCV Efficiency GainsLimited advantages
compared to ICE improvements may be consider
hydrogen hybrids?
Technology Fuel Fuel Fuel consumption Fuel Index
      GJ/1000 km
Current ref. ICE Gasoline Gasoline 2.6 100
Advanced ICE Gasoline Gasoline 2.0-2.2 81
Advanced ICE Diesel Diesel 1.7-1.9 69
Hybrid ICE Gasoline Gasoline 1.6-1.8 65
Hybrid ICE Diesel Diesel 1.5-1.7 62
Hybrid ICE Hydrogen Hydrogen 1.5-1.7 62
Hybrid ICE Methanol/DME Methanol/DME 1.5-1.7 62
Fuel cell Hydrogen Hydrogen 1.2-1.4 50
Fuel cell Natural gas Natural gas 1.3-1.6 56
Electric vehicle Electricity 1.2-1.3 1.2-1.3 48
Source IEA 2003
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Learning Investment Needs 1-5 Trillion who
will pay?
VEHICLE PRODUCTION VEHICLE PRODUCTION VEHICLE PRODUCTION 2020 2030 2040 2050
Cumulative FCVProduction, OECD (millions) 0.1 14.1 95 261.2
Cumulative FCV Production, World (millions) 0.1 14.7 113.7 404.3
FCV Share of Sales, OECD () 0.1 10 30 50
FCV Share of total vehicle stock, OECD () 0.1 2.2 13.7 32.7
VEHICLE COSTS, OPTIMISTIC CASE VEHICLE COSTS, OPTIMISTIC CASE VEHICLE COSTS, OPTIMISTIC CASE
Incremental cost per vehicle - 0.82 progress ratio () Incremental cost per vehicle - 0.82 progress ratio () 13,000 3,300 1,850 1,300
Total FCV incremental cost ( bln) Total FCV incremental cost ( bln) 2 55 255 654
VEHICLE COSTS, PESSIMISTIC CASE VEHICLE COSTS, PESSIMISTIC CASE VEHICLE COSTS, PESSIMISTIC CASE
Incremental cost per vehicle - 0.9 progress ratio () 34,000 16,400 12,000 9,900
Total FCV incremental cost ( bln) 6 257 1,501 4,481
FUEL COST FUEL COST FUEL COST
Central H2 production, distrib. and refueling (/GJ) Central H2 production, distrib. and refueling (/GJ) 100 75 60 50
Total fuel use, scenario (EJ/yr) Total fuel use, scenario (EJ/yr) 0.002 0.294 2.274 8.086
Total Cumulative fuel supply Investment Cost ( bln) Total Cumulative fuel supply Investment Cost ( bln) Total Cumulative fuel supply Investment Cost ( bln) 0 22 140 431
Total cumulative cost, optimistic case ( bln) Total cumulative cost, optimistic case ( bln) Total cumulative cost, optimistic case ( bln) 2 77 395 1,085
Total cumulative cost, pessimistic case ( bln) Total cumulative cost, pessimistic case ( bln) Total cumulative cost, pessimistic case ( bln) 6 279 1,641 4,912
Source IEA 2003
12
ETP Analysis Hydrogen Supply and Demand in a
Global Emission Stabilization Scenario
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ETP Analysis

• Hydrogen plays a limited role in the first half
  of the 21st century, but is growing rapidly
• Fossil fuel CO2 capture seems a cost-effective
  supply option
• Coal based electricity/H2 cogeneration Future
  Gen type seems attractive
• Transport sector H2 use is for airplanes and
  hydrogen hybrids
• Add H2 to natural gas (pipelines).

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Conclusions so far

• Hydrogen will be only a part, maybe an important
  part, of the future energy economy
• Cost, in a fully-developed system, may be
  sustainable and even competitive
• The transition is a challenge (especially demand
  side cost reduction via learning)
• The transition will take decades
• Fossil fuels with CCS could provide as much H2 as
  FCV vehicle sales would require at acceptable
  cost

15
Policy Analysis Needs

• More analysis of transition strategies
• More attention for technology learning and cost
  reduction
• Account for competing strategies that can achieve
  the same policy targets
• Re-assess supply constraints for competing
  transportation fuels.