This presentation includes forwardlooking statements' Actual future conditions including economic co

1
The Outlook for Energy and transport
A View to 2030
Event IEA transport analysis Date 10/03/2006
B.Kelecom Advanced Fuels and Vehicles
This presentation includes forward-looking
statements. Actual future conditions (including
economic conditions, energy demand, and energy
supply) could differ materially due to changes in
technology, the development of new supply
sources, political events, demographic changes,
and other factors discussed herein (and in Item 1
of ExxonMobils latest report on Form 10-K).
This material is not to be reproduced without the
permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation.
This presentation includes forward-looking
statements. Actual future conditions (including
economic conditions, energy demand, and energy
supply) could differ materially due to changes in
technology, the development of new supply
sources, political events, demographic changes,
and other factors discussed herein (and in Item 1
of ExxonMobils latest report on Form 10-K. This
material is not to be reproduced without the
permission of Exxon Mobil Corporation.
2
Energy Outlook Basis
3
The Need for Innovative Technology

• Assumed Advances In
• Fossil Fuels
• Energy intensity
• Nuclear
• Renewables

• Gap Technologies
• Carbon capture and storage
• H2 and advanced transportation
• Bio-technologies
• Solar

The Gap
Source J. Edmonds, PNNL
4
Energy Use - 2030
5
Energy Intensity - Declining Trend Accelerates
6
Energy Demand Grows
7
Oil Primarily Meeting Transport Demand
8
Oil Growth Led by Non-OECD Transport Demand
9
Personal Vehicles Function of Income Per Capita
U.S.
10
Vehicle Fleet
11
Vehicle Fuels
12
CO2 Growth - Primarily Non-OECD
CO2 Emissions -- 2030 vs. 2000
Billion Tonnes CO2
16 Billion Tonnes Per Year
1.7
3
OECD
5
Non-OECD
6
2.7
Growth 2000 - 2030
43
24
Non-OECD
19
0.5
OECD
Transport
Electricity Generation
Heat/Other
13
Technology Critical to Efficiency Improvements
14
Criteria for Technology Evaluation

• Performance
• Safety
• Cost
• Consumer acceptance
• Enabling infrastructure and capacity
• Regulatory compliance
• Environmental impacts

Especially critical for developing countries
Weakest link paradigm failure in any dimension
will prevent widespread commercialization
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Many opportunities ahead
Mid-Size Cars
Average US
European Diesel
Well-to-Wheel g CO2/mile
Prius II
H2 FCV (Practical)
H2 FCV (Best Case)
Ultimate Vehicle
Fuel Cost (cents/mile, ex. tax)
Sources Argonne National Lab, Toyota, NRC, IEA,
EM analysis
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Understanding Combustion is Key to Higher
Efficiency and Lower Emissions

• Potential for 50 improvement in efficiency vs
  todays systems
• Conducting joint research with major OEMs

17
Significant ICE Efficiency Improvements Possible
ExxonMobil Researchers Are Working on
Understanding How to Significantly Increase the
Efficiency of Low Emission, Internal Combustion
Fuel/Engine Systems. Initial Opportunities That
Can Yield Improvements Up to 45 Include Lean
Burn Operation and Higher Compression
Ratios Thermal Efficiencies gt 60 Are Possible
Yet Require Breakthroughs in the Following Areas
Todays ICE
Low-Entropy Combustion Concepts
Insulated Engines
Advanced Exhaust Energy Recovery
Techniques (Turbocharging, etc)
Improved Lubricants
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Potential Engine Improvements on the Horizon

• Large efficiency and emissions improvements
  captured in the past
• Focus is now on lower emissions from diesel and
  higher efficiency from gasoline
• HCCI RD includes links among fuel composition -
  engine performance - aftertreatment systems

Diesel with No Smoke?
TODAY
FUTURE ?
Source Toyota / ExxonMobil SAE Paper
2001-01-0655
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Future Fuels - Synthetics
Potential GTL Volumes
GTL of Road Transport Fuel
Source Industry estimates

• Gas-to-Liquids and Biomass-to-Liquids fuels can
  reduce engine-out emissions
• Likely used as a blend component
• Technology breakthroughs needed to produce
  significant volumes economically

20
Full-Cycle Efficiency Analysis Examples
81 Efficient
17
14 Efficient
One Alternative Hydrogen Fuel Cell from U.S.
Electricity Grid
Retail Hydrogen Production from Electrolysis
Electricity Transmission
Retail Site
Electricity Generation
Fuel Cell Vehicle
U.S. Electricity Fuels Mix
28 Efficient
41
11 Efficient
21
Advanced Reforming - An Alternative Hydrogen
Production Pathway

• Unique proprietary technology to convert
  hydrocarbons to high purity hydrogen
• Scaleable from vehicle to refinery applications
• Potential for high efficiency and low emissions
• Enables use of existing fueling infrastructure

22
GCEP Research Portfolio Development
Wells
Wires
Wheels
Wastes
T i m e
Advanced Materials
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Current GCEP Transport Research Projects

• Advanced Combustion
• Controlled Combustion, Bowman
• Development of Low-Irreversibility Engines,
  Edwards
• Sensors for Advanced Combustion Systems, Hanson
• Coal and Biomass Char Reactivity, Mitchell
• Optimization of Synthetic Oxygenated Fuels,
  Bowman, Golden, Hanson, Pitsch
• Hydrogen
• Biohydrogen Generation, Swartz, Spormann
• Monitoring of the Bioconversion Processes, Prinz
• Micro and Nano Scale Electrochemistry Applied to
  Fuel Cells, Prinz
• Nanomaterials Engineering for Hydrogen Storage,
  Cho, Clemens, Dai, Nilsson
• Hydrogen Effects on Climate, Stratospheric Ozone,
  and Air Pollution, Jacobson, Golden
• Nuclear Magnetic Resonance Studies of Ceramic
  Materials for Fuel Cells, Stebbins, Prinz
• Modeling, Simulation and Characterization of
  Ionic Transport and Impedance in PEM Fuel Cells,
  Pinsky, Barnett
• Biomass
• Genetic Engineering of Cellulose Accumulation,
  Somerville
• Directed Evolution of Novel Yeast Species,
  Sherlock, Rosenzweig (U. Montana)
• Advanced Materials and Catalysts
• Electrocatalysis with Discrete Transition Metal
  Complexes, Chidsey, Stack, Waymouth

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The Outlook for Energy to 2030
25
The Outlook for Energy
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