Can California Import Enough College Graduates to Meet Workforce Needs

1
Can California Import Enough College
Graduatesto Meet Workforce Needs?

• CREDITS TO PPIC, CPEC, GREYSTONE GROUP, LAO,
• COMMUNITY COLLEGE LEAGUE OF CALIFORNIA

2
California in 2025 and Beyond

• Previous PPIC research shows
• Economy will demand more highly educated workers
• Population will not have enough education to meet
  projected needs
• Can gap be closed through migration of highly
  skilled workers from other states and countries?

3
Migration Unlikely to Fill Skills Gap

• Sizeable gap in projections for 2025
• 41 of jobs will require a B.A. / B.S.
• 32 of adults will have a college degree
• Would require an increase in high-skilled
  migration of unprecedented magnitude to fill the
  gap

4
Outline

• The coming skills gap
• Recent migration patterns
• Summary and policy implications

5
How Will Economy Change?
Share of total employment
45
2005
40
2025 (projection)
35
30

25
20
15
10
5
0
Manufacturing
Services
6
Stereotype of Service Industries No Longer
Applies

• Includes complex work in legal, engineering,
  computer services
• Health and education services is fastestgrowing
  sector
• 43 of workers have a college degree

7
How Much Education Will Future Economy Demand?
Share of total employment
2005
41
2025
40
31
30
30

25
22
19
20
17
16
10
0
No H.S. diploma
H.S. diploma
Some college
B.A./B.S.or more
8
Almost All Net Job Increase Will Occur at High
Skill Levels
Number of jobs by educational attainment
2005
9
2025
8
7
6
Millions
5
4
3
2
1
0
No H.S. diploma
H.S.diploma
Some college
B.A./B.S. or more
9
Californias Workforce,Without Migration
2005
35
2025
32
31
30
29
30
25
23
21
19
20

15
15
10
5
0
No H.S. diploma
H.S.diploma
Some college
B.A./B.S. or more
10
Education Will Improve for All Groups, But
Overall Gain Will Be Small
College graduates,25-64 years old
60
56
2005
2025
50
50
42
41
40

32
31
30
22
22
20
13
10
10
0
Allgroups
Latino
White
Asian
African American
11
Older Adult Workers Are Best Educated, Will
Retire by 2025
College graduates by age group, 2005
40
35
35
32
32
31
31
30
30
30
27
25

20
15
10
5
0
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
12
CALIFORNIA DEMOGRAPHIC DATA
13
Large Gap Between Future Supply and Demand for
Skilled Workers
2025 demand
2025 supply, no migration
9
8
7
6
Millions of workers
5
4
3
2
1
0
No H.S. diploma
H.S. diploma
Some college
B.A./B.S.or more
14
Outline

• The coming skills gap
• Recent migration patterns
• Summary and policy implications

15
Domestic Migrants Are Highly Educated
Domestic migrants, 2000-2005
No H.S. diploma
100
9
11
90
H.S. diploma
15
80
21
Some college
70
B.A./B.S. or more
28
60

30
50
40
30
48
38
20
10
0
Domestic in-migrants
Domestic out-migrants
16
But California Still Faces a Net Loss
Domestic migrants, 2000-2005
2,000
No H.S. diploma
1.7 million
1,750
H.S. diploma
Some college
1,500
1.3 million
B.A./B.S. or more
1,250
(000)
1,000
750
500
658,000
612,000
250
0
Domesticin-migrants
Domesticout-migrants
17
Domestic Migrants No Longer Dominate Californias
College-Educated Population
70
Born inanother state
60
50
40

35
Born inCalifornia
33
31
30
20
Foreignborn
10
0
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000
2005
18
Overall Slow Down in Net Migration
19
International Immigration of College Graduates
Has Increased Substantially
Foreign immigration of college graduates to
California
350
300
250
200
(000)
150
100
50
0
1965-70
1975-80
1985-90
1995-2000
2000-05
20
Share of International Migrants With College
Degree at All-Time High
Educational attainment of international
immigrants, 2000-2005, aged 25-64
No H.S. diploma
28
B.A./B.S.or more
40
15
17
H.S. diploma
Some college
21
Large Increases in High-Skilled Migrants
Necessary
Average annual net migration of college graduates
180
160
Migration required to meet demand
140
120
100
(000)
80
60
40
20
0
1985-1990
1995- 2000
2000-2005
2005-2025
22
Large Increases in High-Skilled Migrants
Necessary
Average annual net migration of college graduates
180
160
Migration required to meet demand
140
120
Past domestic migration
100
(000)
80
60
40
20
0
1985-1990
1995-2000
2000-2005
2005-2025
23
Large Increases in High-Skilled Migrants
Necessary
Average annual net migration of college graduates
180
160
Migration required to meet demand
140
120
Past domestic migration
Past international migration
100
(000)
80
60
40
20
0
1985-1990
1990-2000
2000-2005
2005-2025
24
Outline

• The coming skills gap
• Recent migration patterns
• Summary and policy implications

25
Migration Alone UnlikelyTo Fill Skills Gap

• Domestic migration no longer provides substantial
  net increase in college-educated workers
• International immigration has become important
  source of skilled workers
• But annual number of college-educated immigrants
  would need to nearly triple to fill gap

26
EDUCATION TRENDS WONT KEEP PACE

• The problem is that education trends in
  California are not projected to keep pace because
  population growth is concentrated among groups
  that have typically attained lower levels of
  education.
• Immigrants and the children of immigrants will
  make up a large percentage of the 2025
  working-age population. Up to now, this group has
  been among the least likely to finish high school
  or to attend or finish college. CA 2025

27
Future Prospects in California

• By 2010
• Hispanics, at 42 of the population, will become
  the majority
• Industries with the greatest growth (service,
  transportation, and finance) require post-high
  school levels of education and strong language
  skills
• Manufacturing will only have a 3.7 growth rate

28
Labor Demand Will Outstrip Supply
Employment Policy Foundation
29
WHAT THE FUTURE HOLDS
If we dont have the educated workforce we need,
were potentially in a double bind Where will
the tax revenues come from to fund the transfer
programs or to keep roads repaired, water clean
and flowing, and schools running? Is it likely
that the growing proportion of older people will
be a source of high tax revenues? It is
particularly ironic that as the state seeks to
cope with its budget woes, we may be limiting
access to our public institutions of higher
education, thereby potentially limiting the
source of higher tax revenues from the working
population in the future.
30
Such Vast Increases in Number of College
Graduate Immigrants Unlikely

• Requires change in federal policy
• Past federal reforms few and far between
• Current policy favors family reunification
• Senate bill uses point system to shift toward
  skilled workers
• May not happen, may not make a difference
• Increasing competition for skilled workers
• From other states
• From other countries, including home countries

31
What Can California Do?

• Improving college participation and
  graduationwill help close gap
• State has important role
• Preparation for bachelors degree in K-14
• Public university systems educate majority of
  college graduates (76)

32
Public Policy Needed
We conclude that it is extremely unlikely that
the projected need for highly skilled workers
will be met mainly through the increased
migration of college-educated workers. However,
increases in college participation and graduation
among Californias residents could help meet
these future demands. Such increases will be at
least partly induced by the wage growth that will
occur as highly skilled labor becomes relatively
scarce. Public policy in California, a state
where the vast majority of college students are
in public institutions, has an important role to
play in accommodating and even encouraging such
increases.
Can CA Import Enough Workers? PPIC
33
Prop 92 Would Have Made a Major Difference
Opening Doors for Californias Students By
aligning community college funding with growth in
students, Californias community colleges will be
able to open the doors to 114,824 students over
the next three years.
34
Governors Budget Goes the Other Way

• This budget calls for reducing community college
  enrollment by 2 below the governor's enrollment
  projection, which works out to about 52,000
  headcount students.

35
Point Click, WWW.FACCC.ORG April 21
ralliesApril 23 hearingAdvocacy, Advocacy,
Advocacy
WHAT YOU CAN DO?
36

If youre outraged at conditions, then you cant
possibly be free or happy until you devote all
your time to changing them and do nothing but
that. But you cant change anything if you want
to hold onto a good job, a good way of life and
avoid sacrifice.
Cesar Chavez, United Farm Workers