Status Report on Power Plan Development

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Status Report on Power Plan Development

• Tribal Energy Conference
• March 16, 2009

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Emergence of Conservation The 1980 Regional
Power Act
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Some Trends
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Trends Economic Growth

• Slower both for the nation the region
• PNW grows faster than US
• Mix of economic activity is changing
• Aging population, growth of non-manufacturing
  industries, electronic age
• Changes the way we use electricity

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Trends Fuel Prices

• Greater Uncertainty
• Wider Jaws than 5th Plan
• Continued High Volatility Gas Oil
• Moderate Prices in Near-Term
• Higher Prices Long Term

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Historic Mid-C Average Monthly On- and Off-Peak
Prices Source IntercontinentalExchange (ICE)
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Trends Electricity Prices

• Volatile and Uncertain
• Wholesale prices grow from 45/MWh in 2010 to
  85/MWh in 2030 (2006)
• Sensitive to Natural Gas prices, CO2 penalty,
  Renewable Portfolio Standards, Hydro

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Trends Demand for Electricity

• Grow at 1.6 percent per year on average
• About 350-400 MWa per year
• Conservation revised electricity prices can
  reduce that growth rate by HALF
• Peak loads are expected to grow faster than
  energy, especially summer peaks
• Growing Residential Commercial
• Industry flat

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Trends CO2
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Impact of CO2 Emission Price Scenarios on
Wholesale Prices Emissions
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New Analytic Tools(In with Uncertainty and Out
with Perfect Foresight)
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Resource Options

• Conservation
• Generation
• Demand Response

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Energy resource optionsEarly 2020s
Transmission cost losses to point of LSE
wholesale delivery No federal investment or
production tax credits Baseload operation (CC,
Nuc, SCPC 85 IGCC, Bio - 80) Medium NG and
coal price forecast (Draft 6th Plan) Proposed
Draft 6th Plan CO2 price.
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Supply-side Capacity Options Early 2020s
No federal investment or production tax
credits Medium NG and coal price forecast (Draft
6th Plan)
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Hydroelectric Generation

• Assume Biological Opinion operations
• Assume loss of 300 MWa of energy capability over
  the planning period, test max spill, and Lower
  Snake dam removal
• Variability reflected in 70 water years
  simulation (1929-1998)
• Peak capacity based on new Bonneville/Council
  study

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Conservation Have We Picked the Low-Hanging
Fruit?
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Conservation Potential

• Potential reduced by achievements since last plan
• Potential increased by technology advances and
  assessment of some new sectors
• Cost-effectiveness targets will be determined
  in portfolio model analysis
• Achievable technical potential is higher than the
  5th Plan
• Residential and commercial sectors hold three
  quarters of the potential
• Increased potential in industrial (800 MWa) and
  CVR (400 MWa)

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Conservation How Much Remains?
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Residential Measures

• Space Conditioning
• Thermal Shell Improvements (e.g. insulation, high
  efficiency windows)
• Duct Sealing
• Heating System Conversions to Air-Source Heat
  Pumps, including ductless systems
• Heat Pump System Efficiency Upgrades
• Central Air Conditioning Efficiency Upgrades
• Room/Window Air Conditioning Efficiency Upgrades
• Heating and Air Condition System Commissioning

• Water Heating
• High Efficiency Tanks
• Heat Pump and Solar Water Heaters
• 2.0 GPM Showerheads
• GFX Wastewater Heat Recovery
• Appliances and Lighting
• Clothes Washers
• Clothes Dryers
• Dishwashers
• Refrigerators
• Freezers
• Microwaves Ovens
• Solar Photovoltaic Systems (On site use)
• TVs Monitors

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Preliminary Draft 6th Plan Residential Water
Heating, Lighting and Appliance Supply Curve
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Preliminary Draft 6th Plan Residential Space
Conditioning Supply Curve
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Commercial Lighting

• Lighting Power Density
• Daylighting with Skylights
• Daylighting with Windows
• Lighting Controls Interior
• Exit Signs
• Exterior Building Lighting
• Street and Roadway Lighting
• Parking Lighting
• LED Traffic Lights
• Signage

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Commercial HVAC

• Premium HVAC Equipment
• Variable Speed Chiller
• Controls Commissioning
• Package Roof Top Optimization Repair
• Low Pressure Distribution
• Demand Control Ventilation
• Electrically Commutated Motors
• Evaporative Assist Cooling
• Glass
• Roof Insulation

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Commercial Process

• Municipal Sewage Treatment
• Municipal Water Supply
• Network PC Power Management
• Packaged Refrigeration Equipment
• Commercial Clothes Washers
• Cooking Equipment
• Office Equipment
• Computer Servers and IT
• Demand Control Ventilation Restaurant Hood
• Demand Control Ventilation Parking Garage
• Grocery Refrigeration Bundle
• Plug Load Sensor
• Premium Fume Hood
• Pre-Rinse Spray Valve
• Grocery Refrigeration Bundle

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Preliminary Draft 6th Plan Commercial Supply Curve
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Industrial Conservation
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Industrial Conservation Supply Curve
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Agricultural Conservation
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Distribution System Retrofit

• Measures
• Line Drop Compensation
• VAR Management. Phase Load Balancing, Feeder
  Load Balancing
• Substation Voltage Regulators Select
  Re-Conductoring
• End-of Line Voltage Control Regulators

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Demand Response

• 2,900 MW of potential included in analysis (200
  already achieved)
• 2,300 in winter, 2,500 in summer
• 7 separate categories
• Direct control A/C - 200
• Irrigation - 200
• Direct control SH/WH - 200
• Commercial aggregators - 300
• Interruptible contracts - 600
• Demand buyback - 400
• Dispatchable standby generation 1,000 (Treated
  as contingency reserves)

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Reducing CO2 Footprint

• Resources available in the longer-term in
  quantities sufficient to replace existing coal
• Coal gasification w/ sequestration
• Post-combustion CO2 separation options for
  existing plants
• New nuclear plants
• Enhanced geothermal, deep water (floating) wind,
  and imported concentrating solar power

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Generating Resources

• Assess Generation in Terms of
• Energy
• Capacity
• Balancing Reserves

Increasing Importance Capacity Balancing
Reserves
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Climate Policy Analysis

• Discuss sources of carbon emissions
• Describe alternatives for reducing
• Characterize current policies and proposals
• Analysis
• Force RPS resources, show CO2 effects
• Remove RPS, determine CO2 cost for same CO2
  reduction
• Increase CO2 costs in steps, compare to goal

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Other Potential Topics

• Direct use of natural gas study
• Discussion of smart grid possibilities
• Interactions between power system and FW program
• Description of energy, capacity, and balancing
  reserves requirements