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Tsunami risk in South Asia

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Title: Tsunami risk in South Asia


1
Tsunami risk in South Asia
Dale Dominey-Howes Macquarie University Sydney,
Australia
2
Structure of the presentation
Short context Outline relative global
risk Explore risk in the Asia-Pacific region
frequency-magnitude Recommendations for the
industry
Global Conference on Insurance and
Reinsurance for Natural Catastrophe Risk
3
Introduction and context
We now know what tsunami are They are generated
in four separate ways Tsunami magnitude is a
measure of wave height at shore Tsunami
intensity is a measure of wave effect Tsunami
have dramatic effects on human and environmental
systems
Remainder of this talk will outline relative
global risk before summarising risk in the
Asia-Pacific region
Global Conference on Insurance and
Reinsurance for Natural Catastrophe Risk
4
Causes
Global Conference on Insurance and
Reinsurance for Natural Catastrophe Risk
5
Tsunami Magnitude
Tsunami intensity?
Global Conference on Insurance and
Reinsurance for Natural Catastrophe Risk
6
Magnitude data across the globe
Analysis for specific Cresta zones
www.nerc-bas.ac.uk/tsunami-risks/index.html
7
Economic and insurance costs
UN estimate of rebuild costs US10 12.5
bn As of April 2005, insured losses estimated at
US2.5 4 bn Major insurers / reinsurers
reporting relatively low losses
Insurance losses remarkably light low wealth
areas with little (catastrophe) insurance Little
domestic property and business insurance Affected
multiple classes Life and health Buildings,
contents and infrastructure Business interruption
loss Travel Motor Marine etc
Global Conference on Insurance and
Reinsurance for Natural Catastrophe Risk
8
Relative Global Risk historic distribution
http//www.nerc-bas.ac.uk/tsunami-risks/index.html

9
Relative Global Risk
Large tsunami 6100 years!
Two on-line catalogues Russian catalogue from
1628 BC 2,200 events American catalogue from 49
BC over 2,000 events
10
Tsunami risk in the Asia-Pacific region
(After Gusiakov, 2005)
11
Efficiency of tsunami generation
Region EQK Tsunami TE ()
South America 122 102 84
Indonesia 86 68 79
Philippines 73 55 75
NG Sol Islands 130 86 64
Central America 112 62 55
Japan 255 123 48
Alaska Aleutians 108 49 46
Kuril Kamchatka 150 68 45
NZL Tonga 162 62 38
Hawaii 3 13 433
Global Conference on Insurance and
Reinsurance for Natural Catastrophe Risk
12
Tsunami Risk in South Asia?
Tsunamigenic zones? Past tsunami
events? Frequency magnitude? Future risk? IO
Warning System and public awareness
and mitigation techniques
Global Conference on Insurance and
Reinsurance for Natural Catastrophe Risk
http//en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2004_Indian_Ocean_ear
thquake
13
Recommendations for the insurance / reinsurance
industry
Fundamental research on documentary and
geological record of tsunami
14
Recommendations for the insurance / reinsurance
industry
Use of improved records of tsunami to examine
frequency-recurrence and magnitude estimates for
at risk areas
15
Recommendations for the insurance / reinsurance
industry
Development and application of tsunami
vulnerability assessment frameworks and the
development of appropriate building code
standards and best practice design
16
Recommendations for the insurance / reinsurance
industry
Reassessment of insurance asset exposure to
tsunami loss and careful pricing of premiums to
accurately take account of potential tsunami
losses
17
Recommendations for the insurance / reinsurance
industry
Increased collaboration between relevant
stakeholders to improve community education and
to promote risk reduction measures
18
Acknowledgements
Organisers for invitation to make this
presentation Thanks to Aon Re Australia Ltd for
their support in to research in to tsunami
Any questions?
Global Conference on Insurance and
Reinsurance for Natural Catastrophe Risk
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