DROUGHT 2002

1
Development and Application of Extended Range
Forecast System for Climate Risk Management in
Agriculture
Department of Agriculture and Cooperation
2
Indian Agriculture

• 115 million Farm Households ( 80 Small
  Marginal)
• Gross Cropped area 190 million hectares
• Kharif (June-Oct.) Rabi (Oct.-March)
• 125 million hectares 38 million hectares
• 2/3 rainfed 2/3 irrigated
• Vulnerable to Climatic aberrations Irrigation
  mostly Rain Dependent

3
Annual Rainfall Distribution
North East Monsoon (Oct Dec )
74
13
Winter ( Jan - Feb)
3
10
Pre Monsoon ( Mar May )
South West Monsoon (June -Sept)
4
South -West Monsoon Onset and Withdrawl Features
Kerala and North East West Rajasthan Onset
1st June 15th July Active Spell 135
days 45 days
5
Spatial Distribution of Rainfall
Very High Rainfall Zone (Above 2000 mm)
High Rainfall Zone (1125 2000 mm)
Low Rainfall Zone (Less than 750 mm)
Medium Rainfall Zone (750 to 1125 mm)
6
Rainfall Zonation
7
July Crisis
Drought 2002

• July is the wettest month of the year
• Most active period for agriculture operation
• Most crucial for determining severity of drought
  in North West India
• July 2002 the driest of July ever since 1875.

8
Drought 2002
Monsoon Aberration 2002
July 2002 rainfall deficiency - 49 Monsoon
2002 rainfall deficiency - 19 21 out of 36
Met-Subdivisions received deficient/scanty
rainfall
9
Drought 2002 -Impact

• Substantial losses to farmers.
• Area Remained Unsown 18 Million Hectares
• Contingency Crop Shift 1.5 Million Hectares
  
• Sown Area damage 47 Million Hectares
  
• Foodgrain Production Loss 24 million tonnes
• Estimated crop loss Rs 30,000 crores.
• Relief expenditure Rs. 9000 crores

10
Conceptual Framework
End-to-end Climate Information and Application
System
Providing climate outlook
Interpreting global climate outlook into local
outlook
Translating local climate outlook into impact
scenarios
Communication on farmers responses/ feedback
11
Weather Forecasts - Existing framework

• Long Range Forecast
• Complete Monsoon Season
• With break-up in three large homegeneous regions
  
• Short and Medium Range Forecast
• Time scale of less than 5 days
• Little lead time for undertaking crop
  management decisions
• No information on break and active cycle of
  monsoon in different parts of the country

12
Potential Application of Extended Weather
Prediction

• Prediction of dry and wet spells
• in the scale of 30 days
• spatial scale of Agro-climatic zone
• (100 KM. Grid)
• To Assist
• Contingent crop planning
• Save investment
• Value addition in farms sector
• Water budgeting
• Risk management
• Weather Insurance Products

13
Institutions involved for generating and applying
extended weather prediction

• India Meteorological Department (IMD)
• National Center for Medium Range Weather
  Forecasting (NCMRWF), New Delhi
• Department of Agriculture and Cooperation (DAC)
• Department of Agriculture Research and Education
  (DARE)
• Ministry of Science and Technology
• Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO)
• Department of Ocean Development (DOD)
• Indian Institute of Technology (IIT), New Delhi
• Indian Institute of Science (IISc), Bangalore
• Indian Institute for Tropical Meteorology (IITM),
  Pune
• Ministry of Water Resources

14
The Proposal

• Development of Forecast Technology and
  transfer it to operational agencies like IMD /
  NCMRWF,
• Application of extended weather information by
  establishing an end to end Extended Weather
  Information Generation Application System through
  pilot projects for application at selected sites
  and replicate it later with the participation of
  farmers, service support agencies at field
  administrative levels..
• Work Plan 3 to 4 years (By the end of 10th Five
  Year plan)

15
Implementation of the Project

• Scientific and Technical Committee
• Functions
• To establish a dedicated team of professionals to
  undertake all activities relating to the
  development of forecast scheme.
• To negotiate with international organizations for
  obtaining climate models / studies and best
  practices
• To administer the project on a day to day basis
• To provide periodical reports to project
  implementation committee

16
Monitoring of the Project

• Project Implementation Committee (PIC) to
  supervise, review and monitor the progress of the
  project at regular interval to steer the
  project implementation process and give
  directions.

17
Thanks