Title: FOOD SECURITY IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN COMMONWEALTH DEVELOPING COUNTRIES CDCs
1 FOOD SECURITY IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN
COMMONWEALTH DEVELOPING COUNTRIES (CDCs)
BY T. OLALEKAN WILLIAMS Head, Enterprise
Agric Section
www.thecommonwealth.org
2PRESENTATION OUTLINE
- WHAT IS FOOD SECURITY?
- WHAT ARE THE LIKELY IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
(CC) ON FOOD SECURITY IN CDCs? -
- HOW SHOULD CDCs RESPOND TO CC?
- HOW CAN COMMOWEALTH INSTITUTIONS HELP CDCs TO
ENSURE FOOD SECURITY IN THE FACE OF CC?
3CLIMATE CHANGE (CC)
- SCIENTIFIC EVIDENCE SHOWS THAT CC IS ALREADY WITH
US - PAST EMISSIONS OF GHG ARE ALREADY AFFECTING THE
EARTHS CLIMATE
- CHANGES IN TEMPERATURE AND RAINFALL AND INCREASES
IN FREQUENCY OF EXTREME EVENTS HAVE LONG-TERM
IMPLICATIONS FOR FUTURE FOOD SECURITY
4FOOD SECURITY SITUATION IN CDCs
- THE DEVELOPING WORLD ALREADY CONTENDS WITH
CHRONIC FOOD PROBELMS - FAO ESTIMATES THAT ABOUT 820 MILLION PEOPLE IN
DEVELOPING COUNTRIES ARE FOOD INSECURE -
- 45 OF THE UNDERNOURISHED (or about 370 MILLION)
ARE FOUND - WITHIN THE COMMONWEALTH
5(No Transcript)
6- CLIMATE CHANGE REPRESENTS YET ANOTHER CHALLENGE
TO FOOD SECURITY IN CDCs THAT MUST BE ADDRESSED
7WHAT IS FOOD SECURITY?
- FOOD SECURITY IS THE ABILITY OF ALL PEOPLE AT ALL
TIMES TO ACCESS ENOUGH FOD FOR AN ACTIVE AND
HEALTHY LIFE
- FOUR CONDITIONS MUST BE FULFILLED TO ENSURE FOOD
SECURITY AVAILABILITY ACCESS STABILITY AND
UTILIZATION
8FOUR DIMENSIONS OF FOOD SECURITY
- AVAILABILITY
- production
- distribution
- exchange
FOOD SECURITY
- UTILIZATION
- nutrient content
- food safety
- human health
- STABILITY
- supplies
- access
9LINKS BETWEEN CC FOOD SECURITY
- ALL FOUR DIMENSIONS OF FOOD SECURITY ARE LIKELY
TO BE AFFECTED BY CLIMATE CHANGE - NONETHELESS, THE LINKS BEWTEEN CC AND FOOD
SECURITY HAVE TO DATE LARGELY BEEN EXPLORED IN
RELATION TO FOOD AVAILABILITY, PARTICULARLY CROP
PRODUCTIVITY
10OTHER DETERMINANTS OF FOOD SECURITY
- Food security will depend not only on CC, but
also on socio-economic conditions, including - - household income
- - food prices
- - development pathway
- - trade flows
- - food stocks
- - food aid
11Food insecure regions and countries at risk by
climate event
12Food insecure regions and countries at risk by
climate event
13POSSIBLE IMPACTS OF CC ON FOOD SECURITY (IPCC 4th
Assessment Rep.)
AFRICA
- By 2020, in some countries, yields from rainfed
agriculture could be reduced by up to 50 - The area suitable for agriculture, length of
growing seasons and yield potential, particularly
along the margins of semi-arid areas are expected
to decrease.
14POSSIBLE IMPACTS OF CC ON FOOD SECURITY (IPCC 4th
Assessment Rep.)
AFRICA
- By 2020, between 75-250 million people are
projected to be exposed to increased water stress - Exotic livestock breeds (important for dairy
production) will suffer production losses due to
greater heat stress
15POSSIBLE IMPACTS OF CC ON FOOD SECURITY (IPCC 4th
Assessment Rep.)
AFRICA
- Decreased fisheries resources in large lakes due
to rising water temperatures exacerbated by
continued over-fishing which may negatively
affect local food supplies - Towards the end of the 21st Century, projected
sea level rise will affect low-lying coastal
areas with large populations. Cost of adaptation
could amount to 5-10 of GDP.
16POSSIBLE IMPACTS OF CC ON FOOD SECURITY (IPCC 4th
Assessment Rep.)
ASIA
- By 2050, crop yields could decrease up by up to
30 in South Asia - By 2050, freshwater availability in South and
South-East Asia, particularly in large river
basins is projected to decrease. This could
adversely affect more than a billion people, with
implications for food processing and food safety.
17POSSIBLE IMPACTS OF CC ON FOOD SECURITY (IPCC 4th
Assessment Rep.)
ASIA
- Endemic morbidity and mortality due to diarrhoea
diseases primarily associated with floods.
Increases in coastal water temperature would
exacerbate the abundance and/or toxicity of
cholera in South Asia, with implications for
efficient food utilization.
18POSSIBLE IMPACTS OF CC ON FOOD SECURITY (IPCC 4th
Assessment Rep.)
SMALL ISLANDS
- Deterioration in coastal conditions, for example,
through erosion of beaches and coral bleaching,
is expected to affect local resources (e.g.,
fisheries) and reduce the value of these
destinations for tourism - By 2050s, fresh water is likely to be reduced in
the Caribbean and Pacific to the point where it
becomes insufficient to meet demand during low
rainfall periods
19POSSIBLE IMPACTS OF CC ON FOOD SECURITY (IPCC 4th
Assessment Rep.)
SMALL ISLANDS
- Sea-level rise is expected to exacerbate
inundation, storm surge, erosion and other
coastal hazards, thus threatening vital
infrastructure, settlements and facilities that
support food distribution and the livelihood of
island communities.
20RESPONDING TO CLIMATE CHANGE
- There are two key ways of responding to climate
change -
- - Adapt to the changes
- - Reduce through mitigation measures
- the sources (emission abatement) or
- enhance the sinks (sequestration) of
- GHG
21RESPONDING TO CLIMATE CHANGE
- Both adaptation and mitigation measures are
needed to ensure food security
- Mitigation measures are needed because
agriculture contributes to CC. GHG emissions from
the food and agriculture sector contribute over
30 of the current annual total emissions
(agriculture 13.5, deforestation 17.4).
22RESPONDING TO CLIMATE CHANGE
- The most stringent efforts cannot prevent further
impacts of CC in the next few decades, which
makes adaptation essential, particularly in
addressing near-term impacts
23RESPONDING TO CLIMATE CHANGE
Two types of adaptation
- Autonomous adaptation may be insufficient given
the projected magnitude of future changes in
climate. - Planned adaptation measures, i.e., response
strategies, often multi-sectoral and involving
individual citizens and national governments
aimed at altering the adaptive capacity of the
agricultural systems will be required.
24Adaptation to ensure food security
25Mitigation activities to ensure food security
26POSSIBLE ROLES FOR COMMONWEALTH INSTITUTIONS
- Inform and promote dialogue about the impacts of
climate change and what options exist for
reducing vulnerability - Assist CDCs to identify and evaluate adaptation
and mitigation options and help to disseminate
information on which ones are most applicable to
their particular circumstances
27POSSIBLE ROLES FOR COMMONWEALTH INSTITUTIONS
- Provision of technical assistance to build
adaptive capacity and increase resilience,
particularly in the most vulnerable countries - Support for mainstreaming planned adaptation and
mitigation activities into overall
country-specific development programmes and
strategies (e.g., National Programs for Food
Security, PRSPs etc.
28POSSIBLE ROLES FOR COMMONWEALTH INSTITUTIONS
- Advocacy and support for the development of
regional and international solutions (rather than
unilateral solutions, for example, in adaptation
to water shortage, deforestation etc) that will
reduce pressure on national resources, carbon
sinks and hunger.
29THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION
www.thecommonwealth.org