Market outlook for ethanol, other fuels, and agricultural products

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Market outlook for ethanol, other fuels, and
agricultural products

• Patrick Westhoff
• FAPRI
• University of Missouri
• westhoffp_at_missouri.edu

2009 International Sweetener Colloquium Orlando,
February 9, 2009
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U.S. biofuel production
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Petroleum prices
Global Insight forecasts for West Texas
Intermediate
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FAPRI ethanol production projections
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Omaha rack (wholesale) prices for ethanol and
gasoline
Source FAPRI-MU projections, Nov. 2008. Prices
expressed on a Sep.-Aug. year basis.
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U.S. ethanol dry mill operating costs and returns
Source FAPRI-MU projections, Nov. 2008
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U.S. ethanol production capacity
Source Renewable Fuels Association. Note
Excludes plants that have been built but that are
not operating.
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U.S. ethanol supplies
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Ethanol share of motor gasoline use
FAPRI November 2008 estimates
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Ethanol consumption by category
Source FAPRI-MU projections, Nov. 2008. To
meet air quality requirements and state mandates
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Biofuel consumption and the Renewable Fuel
Standard (RFS)
Source FAPRI-projections, Nov. 2008. Assumes
tariffs and tax credits extended
Notes RFS adjusted for shortfall in cellulosic
production relative to mandate one gallon of
biodiesel assumed to count as 1.5 gallons of
biofuel
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2008/09 corn, petroleum prices
Source FAPRI 2008 stochastic baseline. FAPRI is
now developing its 2009 stochastic baseline.
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2008/09 corn, petroleum prices
Futures, 6/6/08, March 2009 contracts NYMEX
petroleum 136.93-5.00 basis CBOT corn
6.92-0.40 basis
Source FAPRI 2008 stochastic baseline. FAPRI is
now developing its 2009 stochastic baseline.
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2008/09 corn, petroleum prices
Futures, 1/27/09, March 2009 contracts NYMEX
petroleum 41.58-3.00 basis CBOT corn
3.77-0.25 basis
Source FAPRI 2008 stochastic baseline. FAPRI is
now developing its 2009 stochastic baseline.
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U.S. and Brazilian ethanol production
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U.S. and Brazilian sugar prices
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THANKS!

• To contact me westhoffp_at_missouri.edu
• FAPRI-Missouri website www.fapri.missouri.edu