Cleaner Fuels in Asia The contribution of the Clean Air Initiative for Asian Cities - PowerPoint PPT Presentation


Title: Cleaner Fuels in Asia The contribution of the Clean Air Initiative for Asian Cities


1
Cleaner Fuels in AsiaThe contribution of the
Clean Air Initiative for Asian Cities
Cornie Huizenga CAI-Asia Secretariat
10th Annual Fuels Lubes Asia Conference 2-5
March 2004 Shanghai, PRC
2
Part 1
  • Air Pollution Problem

3
The Problem 2000 2001
400
SPM Limit 90 µg/m3 (WHO, 1979)
350
PM10 Limit 50 µg/m3 (USEPA, 1997)
SO2 Limit 50 µg/m3 (WHO, 1999)
300
3
NO2 Limit 40 µg/m3 (WHO, 1999)
250
concentration in µg/m
200
150
100
50
0
Seoul
Tokyo
Manila
Osaka
Jakarta
Pune
Bangkok
Busan
Mumbai
Colombo
Kolkata
Shanghai
Hong Kong
New Delhi
Singapore
Chongqing
SO2
NO2
SPM
PM10
Source Information collected through CAI-Asia
network
4
The Impact of the Problem
Premature Deaths
Asia as a
Environmental
Global

Asian

percent
Risks

Estimate

Estimate

of Global

Unsafe Water

1,730,000

730,000

42

Urban Outdoor
799,000

487,000

61

Air

Indoor Air

1,619,000

1,025,000

63

Lead

234,000

88,000

37


Source WHO, 2002
Air pollution puts the lives of Millions at risk
in Asian cities
5
Impacts at City Level
  • Manila (2001)1 Chronic bronchitis (8,439) and
    excess deaths associated with PM10 (1,915) costs
    US392M
  • Shanghai (2000)2 Chronic bronchitis (15,188) and
    premature deaths (7,261) associated with PM10
    costs US880M
  • Bangkok (2000)3 Chronic bronchitis (1,092) and
    excess deaths (4,550) associated with PM10 costs
    US424M
  • India (2002)4 estimated annual health damage of
    pre-Euro emissions for the 25 Indian cities were
    from a low of US 14 million (Rs.679 crore) to a
    high of US 191.6 million
  • Jakarta (1998)5 estimated health effects from
    PM10 only is US 100 million

Source

1
Worldbank (2002) Philippines Environment Monitor
2002
2 Chen et.al.
(2002) Integrated Risk Assessment on Human Health
Ambient Air Pollution Shanghai 3
Worldbank (2002) Thailand Environment Monitor
2002
4 Mashelkar Committee
(2002) India Auto Fuel Policy Report

5 Worldbank (2003) Indonesia Environment Monitor
6
Part II
  • Issues on providing Cleaner Fuels in Asia

7
Status quo of Clean Fuels in Asia
  • Low(er) levels of sulfur for both gasoline and
    diesel fuels have become a high priority
  • low levels of sulfur are needed for the
    implementation of Euro 3 (G150ppm D350ppm),
    Euro 4 (G10-50ppm D10-50ppm) vehicle standards
  • Many countries in Asia currently do not have
    medium fuel quality strategies in place and
    capacity for development of such strategies is
    often weak.

8
Vehicle Emission (and fuel standards) in Asia
a Entire country b Delhi and other cities Euro 2
introduced in Mumbai, Kolkata and Chennai in
2001 Euro 2 in Bangalore, Hyderabad, Khampur,
Pune and Ahmedabad in 2003, Euro 3 to be
introduced in Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata, Chennai,
Bangalore, Hyderabad and Ahmedabad in 2005
C Beijing and Shanghai d Gasoline vehicles under
consideration e for gasoline vehicles f for
diesel vehicles
9
Refineries in Asia
  • 145 refineries, large variability in age,
    complexity. Mixture of state run refineries and
    private refining companies. Crude feedstocks vary

10
Comparison of Refinery Complexity
40
30
Japan
Percent of Crude
Germany
Throughput
20
California
Singapore
10
Indonesia
India
0
China
Coking
Thermal
Cat
Hydro
Cracking
Cracking
Cracking
Visbreaking
11
Comparison of Average Hydrotreating,
Hydrocracking Capacity
50
40
30
Percent of Crude
Througput
20
Hydro-treating
Hydro-cracking
10
0
India
Japan
China
Germany
California
Singapore
12
Cost of Fuel Reformulation(estimates)
  • T50 E100
  • T90 E180

13
Capital Investment Costs(Estimates)
  • Capital Costs
  • China Study (2002)
  • Diesel (2,134 kbpd) 2.3 Billion
  • Gasoline (1,134 kbpd) 0.73 Billion
  • California
  • Diesel (190 kbpd) 0.70 Billion
  • Gasoline (950 kbpd) 4-5 Billion
  • Asian Study (2003) (sulfur only-12 countries)
  • Diesel 5.3 Billion
  • APEC Study (2003) 35 Billion
  • Supply Study 2012 case

14
Overview of Cost Estimates
  • The differences in cost estimates reflects the
    variability in refinery configurations,
    assumptions used for capital and operating costs,
    methodology of analysis, etc.
  • There is no uniform approach in the various
    studies
  • In all cases, the results on the necessary
    capital investments appear to be significant
  • There is a need for a uniform approach

15
Challenges Economic Issues
  • Availability of capital needed for refinery
    modifications capital investment requirements
    appear to be significant
  • The costs on per gallon basis do not appear to be
    unreasonable
  • Ability to recover costs is limited in a
    controlled price environment
  • It is necessary to introduce tax, market
    incentives, or price adjustments to allow capital
    recovery

16
Challenges Technology Issues
  • No significant technological barriers extensive
    experience in fuel reformulation in the USA and
    EU
  • There are some differences in refinery processes
    between Asian and US/EU refineries
  • The availability of technical resources at the
    local level may be limited it may be required to
    import technology or know-how

17
Challenges Other Issues
  • Fuel supply and availability issues
  • Are all refineries equal?
  • considerations for small (inefficient)
    refineries?
  • Capacity of distribution system
  • Integration of fuel and vehicle emissions
    standards. Are the vehicles available in the
    Asian markets to capitalize on the availability
    of cleaner fuels? How do in-use vehicles respond
    to cleaner fuels?
  • Capacity to assess air quality improvements
    resulting the introduction of cleaner fuels

18
Fuels Reformulation the way forward (1)
  • Recognize the need for improvements in fuel
    quality
  • Countries need to develop medium term (8-10
    years) fuel quality strategies which define all
    important fuel parameters, not only sulfur.
    Strategies to be enacted jointly with vehicle
    emissions standards
  • Governments need to take the lead and work with
    other stakeholders (fuel and vehicles) to achieve
    an optimum solution
  • It must be recognized that some standards may
    need to be the same across the region (i.e,
    sulfur) some other standards may need to be
    tailored to each countrys needs
  • Fuel quality strategies need to be accompanied by
    sustainable incentive packages

19
Fuels Reformulation the way forward (2)
  • Improved fuel quality monitoring and capacity
    building of fuel quality regulators is required
    in most of the Asian countries
  • Those countries which have (almost) completed
    formulation of medium term fuel quality
    strategies (Thailand and Malaysia) have done so
    with substantial external assistance
  • About 5-10 million required to formulate
    strategies for those countries, which do not have
    strategies in place
  • ASEAN interest in formulation of (harmonized)
    fuel quality standards can provide required
    political momentum to advance the cause of
    cleaner fuels in Asia. ASEAN process will require
    however stronger technical basis.

20
Part III
  • Clean Air Initiative for Asian Cities Overview
    and Main Projects and Activities related to Fuel
    Quality

21
CAI-Asia Goals
The Clean Air Initiative promotes and
demonstrates innovative ways to improve the air
quality of Asian Cities through sharing
experiences and building partnerships
  • Sharing knowledge and experiences on air quality
    management
  • Capacity building
  • Improving policy and regulatory frameworks at the
    regional level
  • Assisting cities in formulating and implementing
    integrated air quality management systems
  • Piloting projects to encourage innovation

Create an Air Quality Management Community in
Asia
22
Knowledge Management
Listserv
Website
CAI-Asia Listserv is a discussion forum and
bulletin board dedicated to air quality
management in Asia
http//cleanairnet.org/caiasia
join-cai-asia_at_lists.worldbank.org
23
Example of Information Fuel Standards
gt 500 ppm
51 500 ppm
lt 50 ppm
24
Capacity BuildingFuel Quality Strategies
Training Workshop
  • CAI-Asia together with IFQC developed a training
    program for five Asian countries, which currently
    do not have clear fuel quality strategies in
    place (Bangladesh, Indonesia, Philippines,
    Sri-Lanka and Vietnam)
  • Program is funded by the Australian Department of
    Environment and Heritage.
  • All 5 countries have developed their own "ToRs
    to effectively formulate a medium term fuel
    quality strategy. Follow-up activities are
    currently underway in each of these countries to
    implement their ToRs.
  • However, these countries will require additional
    assistance to successfully come up with a
    comprehensive medium term fuel quality strategy

25
Pilot Study Impact of Low Ultra Low Sulfur
Diesel on Vehicle Emissions
  • Calculate the Impact of Low and Ultra-low Sulphur
    Diesel Fuels (down to 50 ppm Sulphur) on NOx,
    PM10 and SOx Emissions of 3 Major Asian Cities
    Bangalore, Bangkok and Metro Manila, as well as a
    Hypothetical City, representing typical Asian
    Conditions
  • Simulate the Implementation of a Broad Range of
    Emission Control Measures, from EURO II to EURO
    IV Fuel and Vehicle Technologies, as well as
    Advanced Inspection and Maintenance Programmes
  • Assess the Impact of the Diesel Fuels, both with
    and without the introduction of enabling Advanced
    Diesel Vehicle Emission Control Technologies
  • Study to be Completed within March 2004

26
Policy Dialogue on Cleaner Fuels Oil Industry
- CAI-Asia Dialogue on Cleaner Fuels in Asia
  • Countries on average do not have medium term fuel
    quality strategies
  • Capacity to regulate is under developed in
    several countries, especially those which lack
    medium term strategies
  • By involving oil industry in a dialogue CAI-Asia
    intends to link the expertise of oil industry to
    produce high quality transportation fuel to
    complement ongoing efforts by different
    stakeholders to improve air quality management in
    Asia

27
Members of the Dialogue
  • The dialogue brings together, for the first time,
    the 12 major regional and national oil companies
    Bangchak Petroleum Public Company, BP, Chevron
    Texaco, ExxonMobil, Indian Oil Corporation,
    Pakistan State Oil, Petron Corporation, PTT
    Public Company Ltd., Shell, Showa Shell Sekiyu
    K.K., Singapore Petroleum Company and Thai Oil
    Company Ltd.
  • Membership to be expanded to other major oil
    companies in the region as the dialogue proceeds
  • Auto Industry will be invited to join the
    dialogue process

28
Launch Meeting Oil Dialogue
  • The meeting was held on July 2003 in Singapore
  • The oil companies committed to work with key
    stakeholders, including governments, academia,
    civil society, and equipment/vehicle
    manufacturers to contribute to the identification
    of sources of pollution, as well as to formulate
    solutions, particularly those to reduce emissions
    from mobile sources
  • The full text of Singapore Statement (see
    lthttp//www.adb.org/Vehicle-Emissions/SingaporeSta
    tement.pdfgt)

29
Operational Plan of the Oil Industry CAI-Asia
Dialogue
Supportive research activities
C 1 Producing Cleaner Fuels
A Synthesis of Air Quality/Emissions/ Fuel
quality information
B Vehicles and Clean Fuels
PHASE ONE
C 2 Incentives for Producing Cleaner Fuels
D Provide high quality information to decision
makers on vehicle technology, and emissions and
fuel quality changes
Consensus Building
30
Component ASynthesis of Information on the
linkage between air quality, vehicle emissions
and fuel quality
31
Component BVehicles and Fuels
32
Component C1 Producing Cleaner Fuels
33
Component C2 Incentives for Cleaner Fuels
34
  • For further information, contact

Cornie Huizengachuizenga_at_adb.org
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Cleaner Fuels in Asia The contribution of the Clean Air Initiative for Asian Cities

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Title: Cleaner Fuels in Asia The contribution of the Clean Air Initiative for Asian Cities


1
Cleaner Fuels in AsiaThe contribution of the
Clean Air Initiative for Asian Cities
Cornie Huizenga CAI-Asia Secretariat
10th Annual Fuels Lubes Asia Conference 2-5
March 2004 Shanghai, PRC
2
Part 1
  • Air Pollution Problem

3
The Problem 2000 2001
400
SPM Limit 90 µg/m3 (WHO, 1979)
350
PM10 Limit 50 µg/m3 (USEPA, 1997)
SO2 Limit 50 µg/m3 (WHO, 1999)
300
3
NO2 Limit 40 µg/m3 (WHO, 1999)
250
concentration in µg/m
200
150
100
50
0
Seoul
Tokyo
Manila
Osaka
Jakarta
Pune
Bangkok
Busan
Mumbai
Colombo
Kolkata
Shanghai
Hong Kong
New Delhi
Singapore
Chongqing
SO2
NO2
SPM
PM10
Source Information collected through CAI-Asia
network
4
The Impact of the Problem
Premature Deaths
Asia as a
Environmental
Global

Asian

percent
Risks

Estimate

Estimate

of Global

Unsafe Water

1,730,000

730,000

42

Urban Outdoor
799,000

487,000

61

Air

Indoor Air

1,619,000

1,025,000

63

Lead

234,000

88,000

37


Source WHO, 2002
Air pollution puts the lives of Millions at risk
in Asian cities
5
Impacts at City Level
  • Manila (2001)1 Chronic bronchitis (8,439) and
    excess deaths associated with PM10 (1,915) costs
    US392M
  • Shanghai (2000)2 Chronic bronchitis (15,188) and
    premature deaths (7,261) associated with PM10
    costs US880M
  • Bangkok (2000)3 Chronic bronchitis (1,092) and
    excess deaths (4,550) associated with PM10 costs
    US424M
  • India (2002)4 estimated annual health damage of
    pre-Euro emissions for the 25 Indian cities were
    from a low of US 14 million (Rs.679 crore) to a
    high of US 191.6 million
  • Jakarta (1998)5 estimated health effects from
    PM10 only is US 100 million

Source

1
Worldbank (2002) Philippines Environment Monitor
2002
2 Chen et.al.
(2002) Integrated Risk Assessment on Human Health
Ambient Air Pollution Shanghai 3
Worldbank (2002) Thailand Environment Monitor
2002
4 Mashelkar Committee
(2002) India Auto Fuel Policy Report

5 Worldbank (2003) Indonesia Environment Monitor
6
Part II
  • Issues on providing Cleaner Fuels in Asia

7
Status quo of Clean Fuels in Asia
  • Low(er) levels of sulfur for both gasoline and
    diesel fuels have become a high priority
  • low levels of sulfur are needed for the
    implementation of Euro 3 (G150ppm D350ppm),
    Euro 4 (G10-50ppm D10-50ppm) vehicle standards
  • Many countries in Asia currently do not have
    medium fuel quality strategies in place and
    capacity for development of such strategies is
    often weak.

8
Vehicle Emission (and fuel standards) in Asia
a Entire country b Delhi and other cities Euro 2
introduced in Mumbai, Kolkata and Chennai in
2001 Euro 2 in Bangalore, Hyderabad, Khampur,
Pune and Ahmedabad in 2003, Euro 3 to be
introduced in Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata, Chennai,
Bangalore, Hyderabad and Ahmedabad in 2005
C Beijing and Shanghai d Gasoline vehicles under
consideration e for gasoline vehicles f for
diesel vehicles
9
Refineries in Asia
  • 145 refineries, large variability in age,
    complexity. Mixture of state run refineries and
    private refining companies. Crude feedstocks vary

10
Comparison of Refinery Complexity
40
30
Japan
Percent of Crude
Germany
Throughput
20
California
Singapore
10
Indonesia
India
0
China
Coking
Thermal
Cat
Hydro
Cracking
Cracking
Cracking
Visbreaking
11
Comparison of Average Hydrotreating,
Hydrocracking Capacity
50
40
30
Percent of Crude
Througput
20
Hydro-treating
Hydro-cracking
10
0
India
Japan
China
Germany
California
Singapore
12
Cost of Fuel Reformulation(estimates)
  • T50 E100
  • T90 E180

13
Capital Investment Costs(Estimates)
  • Capital Costs
  • China Study (2002)
  • Diesel (2,134 kbpd) 2.3 Billion
  • Gasoline (1,134 kbpd) 0.73 Billion
  • California
  • Diesel (190 kbpd) 0.70 Billion
  • Gasoline (950 kbpd) 4-5 Billion
  • Asian Study (2003) (sulfur only-12 countries)
  • Diesel 5.3 Billion
  • APEC Study (2003) 35 Billion
  • Supply Study 2012 case

14
Overview of Cost Estimates
  • The differences in cost estimates reflects the
    variability in refinery configurations,
    assumptions used for capital and operating costs,
    methodology of analysis, etc.
  • There is no uniform approach in the various
    studies
  • In all cases, the results on the necessary
    capital investments appear to be significant
  • There is a need for a uniform approach

15
Challenges Economic Issues
  • Availability of capital needed for refinery
    modifications capital investment requirements
    appear to be significant
  • The costs on per gallon basis do not appear to be
    unreasonable
  • Ability to recover costs is limited in a
    controlled price environment
  • It is necessary to introduce tax, market
    incentives, or price adjustments to allow capital
    recovery

16
Challenges Technology Issues
  • No significant technological barriers extensive
    experience in fuel reformulation in the USA and
    EU
  • There are some differences in refinery processes
    between Asian and US/EU refineries
  • The availability of technical resources at the
    local level may be limited it may be required to
    import technology or know-how

17
Challenges Other Issues
  • Fuel supply and availability issues
  • Are all refineries equal?
  • considerations for small (inefficient)
    refineries?
  • Capacity of distribution system
  • Integration of fuel and vehicle emissions
    standards. Are the vehicles available in the
    Asian markets to capitalize on the availability
    of cleaner fuels? How do in-use vehicles respond
    to cleaner fuels?
  • Capacity to assess air quality improvements
    resulting the introduction of cleaner fuels

18
Fuels Reformulation the way forward (1)
  • Recognize the need for improvements in fuel
    quality
  • Countries need to develop medium term (8-10
    years) fuel quality strategies which define all
    important fuel parameters, not only sulfur.
    Strategies to be enacted jointly with vehicle
    emissions standards
  • Governments need to take the lead and work with
    other stakeholders (fuel and vehicles) to achieve
    an optimum solution
  • It must be recognized that some standards may
    need to be the same across the region (i.e,
    sulfur) some other standards may need to be
    tailored to each countrys needs
  • Fuel quality strategies need to be accompanied by
    sustainable incentive packages

19
Fuels Reformulation the way forward (2)
  • Improved fuel quality monitoring and capacity
    building of fuel quality regulators is required
    in most of the Asian countries
  • Those countries which have (almost) completed
    formulation of medium term fuel quality
    strategies (Thailand and Malaysia) have done so
    with substantial external assistance
  • About 5-10 million required to formulate
    strategies for those countries, which do not have
    strategies in place
  • ASEAN interest in formulation of (harmonized)
    fuel quality standards can provide required
    political momentum to advance the cause of
    cleaner fuels in Asia. ASEAN process will require
    however stronger technical basis.

20
Part III
  • Clean Air Initiative for Asian Cities Overview
    and Main Projects and Activities related to Fuel
    Quality

21
CAI-Asia Goals
The Clean Air Initiative promotes and
demonstrates innovative ways to improve the air
quality of Asian Cities through sharing
experiences and building partnerships
  • Sharing knowledge and experiences on air quality
    management
  • Capacity building
  • Improving policy and regulatory frameworks at the
    regional level
  • Assisting cities in formulating and implementing
    integrated air quality management systems
  • Piloting projects to encourage innovation

Create an Air Quality Management Community in
Asia
22
Knowledge Management
Listserv
Website
CAI-Asia Listserv is a discussion forum and
bulletin board dedicated to air quality
management in Asia
http//cleanairnet.org/caiasia
join-cai-asia_at_lists.worldbank.org
23
Example of Information Fuel Standards
gt 500 ppm
51 500 ppm
lt 50 ppm
24
Capacity BuildingFuel Quality Strategies
Training Workshop
  • CAI-Asia together with IFQC developed a training
    program for five Asian countries, which currently
    do not have clear fuel quality strategies in
    place (Bangladesh, Indonesia, Philippines,
    Sri-Lanka and Vietnam)
  • Program is funded by the Australian Department of
    Environment and Heritage.
  • All 5 countries have developed their own "ToRs
    to effectively formulate a medium term fuel
    quality strategy. Follow-up activities are
    currently underway in each of these countries to
    implement their ToRs.
  • However, these countries will require additional
    assistance to successfully come up with a
    comprehensive medium term fuel quality strategy

25
Pilot Study Impact of Low Ultra Low Sulfur
Diesel on Vehicle Emissions
  • Calculate the Impact of Low and Ultra-low Sulphur
    Diesel Fuels (down to 50 ppm Sulphur) on NOx,
    PM10 and SOx Emissions of 3 Major Asian Cities
    Bangalore, Bangkok and Metro Manila, as well as a
    Hypothetical City, representing typical Asian
    Conditions
  • Simulate the Implementation of a Broad Range of
    Emission Control Measures, from EURO II to EURO
    IV Fuel and Vehicle Technologies, as well as
    Advanced Inspection and Maintenance Programmes
  • Assess the Impact of the Diesel Fuels, both with
    and without the introduction of enabling Advanced
    Diesel Vehicle Emission Control Technologies
  • Study to be Completed within March 2004

26
Policy Dialogue on Cleaner Fuels Oil Industry
- CAI-Asia Dialogue on Cleaner Fuels in Asia
  • Countries on average do not have medium term fuel
    quality strategies
  • Capacity to regulate is under developed in
    several countries, especially those which lack
    medium term strategies
  • By involving oil industry in a dialogue CAI-Asia
    intends to link the expertise of oil industry to
    produce high quality transportation fuel to
    complement ongoing efforts by different
    stakeholders to improve air quality management in
    Asia

27
Members of the Dialogue
  • The dialogue brings together, for the first time,
    the 12 major regional and national oil companies
    Bangchak Petroleum Public Company, BP, Chevron
    Texaco, ExxonMobil, Indian Oil Corporation,
    Pakistan State Oil, Petron Corporation, PTT
    Public Company Ltd., Shell, Showa Shell Sekiyu
    K.K., Singapore Petroleum Company and Thai Oil
    Company Ltd.
  • Membership to be expanded to other major oil
    companies in the region as the dialogue proceeds
  • Auto Industry will be invited to join the
    dialogue process

28
Launch Meeting Oil Dialogue
  • The meeting was held on July 2003 in Singapore
  • The oil companies committed to work with key
    stakeholders, including governments, academia,
    civil society, and equipment/vehicle
    manufacturers to contribute to the identification
    of sources of pollution, as well as to formulate
    solutions, particularly those to reduce emissions
    from mobile sources
  • The full text of Singapore Statement (see
    lthttp//www.adb.org/Vehicle-Emissions/SingaporeSta
    tement.pdfgt)

29
Operational Plan of the Oil Industry CAI-Asia
Dialogue
Supportive research activities
C 1 Producing Cleaner Fuels
A Synthesis of Air Quality/Emissions/ Fuel
quality information
B Vehicles and Clean Fuels
PHASE ONE
C 2 Incentives for Producing Cleaner Fuels
D Provide high quality information to decision
makers on vehicle technology, and emissions and
fuel quality changes
Consensus Building
30
Component ASynthesis of Information on the
linkage between air quality, vehicle emissions
and fuel quality
31
Component BVehicles and Fuels
32
Component C1 Producing Cleaner Fuels
33
Component C2 Incentives for Cleaner Fuels
34
  • For further information, contact

Cornie Huizengachuizenga_at_adb.org
About PowerShow.com