Sample of Anonymised Records: User Meeting

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Sample of Anonymised Records User
Meeting Propensity to migrate by ethnic group
1991 2001 Paul Norman 1, John Stillwell 2
Serena Hussain 2 School of Geography, University
of Leeds 1 ESRC RES-163-25-0032 2 ESRC
RES-163-25-0028
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• Internal migration of Britain's ethnic
  populations
• John Stillwell Serena Hussain
• Understand how migration intensities and
  patterns vary between ethnic groups at various
  geographical levels in 2001 and what changes can
  be identified between 1991 2001
• What happens when international migrants settle?
  Ethnic group population trends projections for
  UK local areas under alternative scenarios
• Phil Rees, Paul Norman Peter Boden
• Investigate trends in migration propensities by
  ethnic group need age-specific migration rates
  for projections

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• Research questions
• Do propensities to migrate vary by ethnic group,
  age, sex at the national level and for
  sub-national areas?
• How do spatial patterns of internal ethnic group
  migration vary with spatial distribution of
  ethnic populations and immigration at LAD scale,
  2000-01?
• What are the characteristics of the origins and
  destinations of ethnic group migrants in 2000-01
  at ward level?
• What other factors influence migration
  propensities?
• Have there been any changes between 1991 2001?

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• Specification
• Stillwell Hussain have commissioned tables from
  ONS, one of which is for flows at LAD scale in
  England Wales
• Ethnic groups consistent with ethnic group data
  in SMS
• Reasonable geographical detail but lacks
  information on
• sex other factors is only for 2000-01

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• Specification
• Data sources 1991 2001 Individual Licensed SAR
• Study population household communal
  establishment residents in England Wales,
  excluding recent immigrants
• Close as possible to the ethnic group and age
  detail from the commissioned table, plus sex,
  migrant status and region (GOR)
• Derive variables consistent for 1991 2001 that
  the literature shows to be related to the
  propensity to migrate
• Social Class
• Educational achievement (degree)
• Tenure (owners, public renters, private
  renters, communal)
• Employment status (active, unemployed, other)
• Health (reported limiting long-term illness)

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Deriving variables Ethnicity
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• Deriving variables Social Class
• Available in 1991, emulated in 2001 using NS-SEC
• Age (0-15 16-19 20-24 25-29 30-44 45-59
  60)
• Migrant status (year before census) (y/n)
• Educational achievement (degree)
• Tenure (owners, public renters, private renters)
• Employment status (active, unemployed, other)
• Health (reported limiting long-term illness)

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Deriving variables Government Office
Region Available in 2001 SAR, needs estimating
for 1991
1991 areap
2001 GOR
Link to GOR via Centroid
GOR added to 1991 individual records using
areap link
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Contextual information 1991 economic depression,
high unemployment 2001 economically buoyant, low
unemployment Regional migration rates, different
pattern
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• Modelling migration logistic regression
• Outcome variable
• Dichotomous categorical outcome Did / Did not
  migrate
• Model predictions to lie between 0 1
• Explanatory variables
• Categorical or continuous
• Model outputs
• Odds of event compared with a base or
  reference level
• Can be expressed as probabilities
• Dale A, Fieldhouse E, Holdsworth C (2000)
  Analyzing Census Microdata. Arnold London
• Series of models developed
• Simple then adding in various factors
• Interactions explored

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Modelling migration probabilities (model
n) Influences on migration (year before census)
continued
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Modelling migration probabilities (model
n) Influences on migration (year before census)
continued
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Modelling migration probabilities (model
n) Influences on migration (year before census)
continued
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Modelling migration probabilities (model n)
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• Modelling summary
• Ethnicity
• South Asian groups less likely to migrate than
  White group
• White group propensities higher in 2001 than
  1991
• Chinese, Black Other groups higher odds of
  migration in 1991, but less difference from White
  group by 2001
• Other factors consistent with literature
• Government Office Region complex picture

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• Using the model outputs
• Modelled migration probabilities by ethnic group
• For forecasting scenario models
• Estimate single year of age trends
• Corroborate from other sources

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• SARs goods less than goods
• SARs, lt goods
• Inconsistencies between 1991 2001 extracts,
  e.g. variable definitions, geography different
  decisions by UKs NSAs
• Delays for 2001 release, loss of momentum
• For 2011 need continuity from previous censuses
• Loss of variable detail down to lowest in
  common?
• SARs microdata a great resource
• Large sample size
• Extraction of study population of interest
• Derivation of variables versatile
  crosstabulations
• Comparisons between 1991 2001 then 2011
• Modelling techniques