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Title: The Ensemble Systems of the


1
  • The Ensemble Systems of the
  • COSMO Consortium
  • Chiara Marsigli, Andrea Montani, Tiziana
    Paccagnella
  • ARPA-SIM
  • The Hydro-Meteorological Service
  • of the
  • Emilia-Romagna Region Environmental Agency

2
COSMO Ensemble Prediction Systems
  • COSMO-LEPS
  • 2-5 days 10 km hor. res.
  • Operational as ECMWF Time Critical Application
  • COSMO-SREPS
  • Short Range 10 km hor. res.
  • Under development
  • EELMK
  • DWD project
  • 2.8 km hor. res.

3
COSMO-LEPS
  • It is a Limited-area Ensemble Prediction System
    (LEPS), based on the Lokal Modell of the COSMO
    Consortium
  • It has been designed to improve the capability of
    forecasting severe local events in the time range
    48 C132 hours by performing a dynamical
    downscaling of some selected members of ECMWF EPS

4
The new COSMO-LEPS suite _at_ ECMWFsince February
2006
16 Representative Members driving the 16 Lokal
Modell integrations (weighted according to the
cluster populations) Employing either Tiedtke
or Kain-Fristch moist convection scheme (randomly
choosen)
4 variables Z U V Q
3 levels 500 700 850 hPa
d5
Cluster Analysis and RMs identification
Cluster Analysis and RM identification
2 time steps
European area
clustering period
Complete Linkage
  • suite running as a time-critical application
    managed by ARPA-SIM
  • ?x 10 km 40 ML
  • LM_3.17 since 1/2/2006
  • fc length 132h
  • Computer time (4 million BU for 2006) provided
    by the COSMO partners which are ECMWF member
    states.

COSMO-LEPS clustering area
COSMO-LEPS Integration Domain
5
  • Start 20 UTC
  • 2 trances 96 Tasks HPCD (ltHPCE) IBM PW5 for
    each run.
  • 45 Mins for each run 306x258x40

6
The new COSMO-LEPS suite _at_ ECMWFsince February
2006
  • Core System
  • 16 perturbed LM runs (ICs and 3-hourly BCs from
    16 EPS members) to generate probabilistic output
    (start at 12UTC ?t 132h)
  • Additional Components
  • 1 deterministic run (ICs and 3-hourly BCs from
    the high-resolution deterministic ECMWF forecast)
    to assess the relative merits between
    deterministic and probabilistic approach (start
    at 12UTC ?t 132h)
  • 1 proxy run (ICs and 3-hourly BCs from ECMWF
    analyses) to downscale ECMWF information (start
    at 00UTC ?t 36h).

7
COSMO-LEPS products
New products Ensemble Mean and Ensemble
Standard Deviation for Z700 - T850 MSLP -
T2M - UV10M - TP fc0h to fc132h every 3
hours EM and ES are calculated without
considering the weights relative to each
integration.
  • Products delivered at about 1 UTC to most of
    COSMO weather services, to Hungary (case studies)
    and to the COPS community (field campaign).
  • about 4 GB a day

8
COSMO LEPS CLONES
  • The Alpine Suite ?MAP D Phase Project
  • (Demonstration of Probabilistic Hydrological
    and Atmospheric Simulation of flood Events in the
    Alpine region) a WWRP Forecast Demonstration
    Project
  • The Northern Europe Suite ? FP6 Eurorisk-Preview
    (PREVention, Information and Early Warning)
    Windstorm Project

9
ALPINE suite (on SPCOLEPS billing units)
  • Experimental suite from 15 July 2005 to 31
    January 2006.
  • Same configuration as the operational COSMO-LEPS
    (red), but both clustering and integration domain
    are centred over the Alps (blue).
  • Products were not disseminated, but saved at
    ECMWF.
  • 10 integrations
  • hor. Res. 10 km
  • 32 ML
  • 132h forecast range
  • comparison between OPE and ALP suites on a
    case-study basis and over the full period (about
    200 days).

10
Clone of COSMO-LEPS suite over NW Europe
  • Generation of a new limited-area ensemble
    forecast system for the prediction of wind and
    wind gusts over North-Western Europe.
  • Aim provision of site-specific wind forecasts
    (wind speed, wind direction other variables to
    diagnose wind gust) to be post-processed and
    combined with other products by UK Met. Office.
  • Point forecasts are calculated over 197 stations.
  • Similar configuration as the operational
    COSMO-LEPS (red), but both clustering and
    integration domain are shifted northwards (blue).

Experimental suite started on September
2006. Computer time provided by an ECMWF special
project between ARPA-SIM and UK Met Office.
11
Future plans
  • On ectmp, store ECMWF EPS bc and ics (all EPS
    members at both 00Z and 12Z!) for the last 3
    months to rerun recent case studies.
  • Work on coding of synthetic radar and satellite
    images so as to archive them at ECMWF on MARS.
  • (Start to) Implement verification at ECMWF.
  • Back archiving on MARS of past runs (from
    5/11/2002 onwards).
  • Switch on the Alpine suite for the MAP D-Phase
    campaign (June-November 2007)?
  • Comparison with COSMO-SREPS

12
COSMO-SREPS
  • COSMO-LEPS mainly designed for the 2-5 days range
  • The spread is coming only from EPS initial and
    boundary conditions (uncertainties related to
    larger scale analysis errors )
  • COSMO-SREPS has been thought as a limited-area
    ensemble system for the short-range
  • add more spread in the short-range
  • initial and boundary condition from a Multi-Model
    Multi-Boundary ensemble (INM SREPS)
  • take into account also small scale uncertainty
    related to LM errors

13
System DesignICs and BCs multi-model approach
  • a MUlti-Model MUlti-Boundaries ensemble is
    operational at INM (Spain) 5 different
    limited-area models (HIRLAM, HRM, MM5, UM, LM)
    are nested on 4 different global models (IFS,
    GME, AVN, UM) gt 20 members ensemble (25 km
    horizontal resolution)

Courtesy of INM
IFS LM 25km
GME LM 25km
AVN LM 25 km
UM LM 25 km
14
Model Perturbations
  • Schemes (physics and numerics) Some schemes
    have been selected to be perturbed Tiedtke,
    Kain-Fritsch, 2-time-level, Runge-Kutta
  • Parameters
  • a first selection of the parameters has been
    done
  • new tuneable parameters will be tested
  • Surface forcings test a technique for the
    perturbation of surface parameters

Implementation of an ETKF (collaboration with
UKMO) to perturb initial conditions at high
resolution
15
System DesignICs and BCs multi-model approach
IFS ECMWF global
LM at 25 km on IFS
GME DWD global
P1 control P2 conv. scheme (KF) P3 turb.
parameter 1 P4 turb. parameter 2
LM at 25 km on GME
by INM Spain
UM UKMO global
16 LM runs at 10 km
LM at 25 km on UM
AVN NCEP global
LM at 25 km on NCEP
16
13 May 12-18 UTC
COSMO-LEPS PROB. MAPS fc. range 0-6 6-12 12-18 h
gt 10mm/6h
COSMO-SREPS PROB. MAPS fc. range 12-18 18-24
24-30 h
gt 10mm/6h
17
COSMO-SREPS fc. range 24-30
ecmwf
gme
avn
ukmo
14 May 0-6 UTC
18
ensemble spread
T 2m
12/05 12UTC
13/05 00UTC
13/05 12UTC
19
member behaviour (father)
20
intra-group distance whole domain
21
intra-group distance northern Italy
22
1-month test
  • run of COSMO-SREPS with model perturbations for
    1 month of Autumn 2006
  • chosen dates 13-18 September, 30 September, 1-7
    October, 13 October, 18-20 October, 27-31
    October, November
  • provide b.c. on model levels on a sub-domain for
    EELMK (DWD) tests
  • statistical analysis of the system
  • objective verification comparison with
    COSMO-LEPS and PEPS
  • test the use of the system for the determination
    of a flow-dependent B-matrix to be used in the
    1D-Var of satellite data with LM

23
1-month test model pert. with the same father
IFS ECMWF global
P1 control (ope) P2 conv. scheme (KF) P3 turb.
parameter 1 P4 turb. parameter 2 P5
LM at 25 km on IFS
by INM Spain
10 LM runs at 10 km
24
Future Plans
  • implementation of an ETKF (collaboration with
    UKMO) to perturb initial conditions at high
    resolution
  • MAP D-PHASE testing period (summer-autumn 2007)
  • only a sub-period?
  • not real time!
  • perturbations selected on the basis of the
    1-month test
  • verification -gt availability of observations
  • comparison with the other available mesoscale
    ensemble systems

25
Thank you !
26
  • TIGGE
  • The THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble
  • Philippe Bougeault
  • Co-chair, GIFS-TIGGE WG
  • TIGGE LAM
  • Tiziana Paccagnella
  • Chair, TIGGE LAM Panel

27
WMO/WWRP/RDP/ THORPEX THe Observing system
Research and Predictability Experiment
  • TIGGE, the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global
    Ensemble, is a key component of THORPEX a World
    Weather Research Programme to accelerate the
    improvements in the accuracy of 1-day to 2-week
    high-impact weather forecasts for the benefit of
    humanity.
  • The first TIGGE workshop was held at ECMWF from 1
    to 3 March 2005 and the full workshop report is
    available on the THORPEX Web site and has been
    published in the WMO series WMO/TD-No. 1273
    WWRP/THORPEX No. 5.

28
Key objectives of TIGGE discussed at the Reading
workshop
  • An enhanced collaboration on development of
    ensemble prediction, internationally and between
    operational centres and universities
  • New methods of combining ensembles from different
    sources and of correcting for systematic errors
    (biases, spread over-/under-estimation)
  • A deeper understanding of the contribution of
    observation, initial and model uncertainties to
    forecast error

29
Key objectives of TIGGE (continued)
  • A deeper understanding of the feasibility of
    interactive ensemble system responding
    dynamically to changing uncertainty (including
    use for adaptive observing, variable ensemble
    size, on-demand regional ensembles) and
    exploiting new technology for grid computing and
    high-speed data transfer.
  • Test concepts of a TIGGE Prediction Centre to
    produce ensemble-based predictions of high-impact
    weather, wherever it occurs, on all predictable
    time ranges
  • The development of a prototype future Global
    Interactive Forecasting System

30
Development in two phases
  • Phase-1 data will be collected in near-real
    time (via internet ftp) at a small number of
    central TIGGE data archives. This can be
    implemented now at little cost and could handle
    the estimated 200 GB per day data volumes with
    current network and storage capabilities
  • Phase-2 data archives will be distributed over a
    number of repositories, instead of all being held
    centrally, but efficient and transparent access
    to users will be maintained. This is a more
    flexible solution with the potential to eliminate
    routine transfers of large data volumes. But this
    will require substantial software development
    over a number of years, in coordination with the
    WMO Information System, and will require
    additional funding

31
Development in two phases
  • Phase-1 data will be collected in near-real
    time (via internet ftp) at a small number of
    central TIGGE data archives. This can be
    implemented now at little cost and could handle
    the estimated 200 GB per day daa volumes with
    current network and storage capabilities
  • Phase-2 data archives will be distributed over a
    number of repositories, instead of all being held
    centrally, but efficient and transparent access
    to users will be maintained. This is a more
    flexible solution with the potential to eliminate
    routine transfers of large data volumes. But this
    will require substantial software development
    over a number of years, in coordination with the
    WMO Information System, and will require
    additional funding

32
TIGGE infrastructure Phase 1
  • Data collected in near-real time (via internet
    ftp) at central TIGGE data archives
  • Can be implemented now at little cost
  • Can handle current data volumes (estimated 200
    Gb/day) within available network and storage
    capabilities

Predictability science
Real-world applications
NHMS
academic
End user
TIGGE Centre A
TIGGE Centre B
EPS 1
EPS 2
EPS n
33
TIGGE infrastructure Phase 2
Predictability science
Real-world applications
  • Data distributed over several repositories
  • But keep efficient and transparent user access
  • Flexible minimise data transfers
  • Needs substantial software development
  • Coordination with WMO Information System
  • Requires additional funding

NHMS
academic
End user
Portal to distributed (virtual) archive
EPS 1
EPS 2
EPS n
34
TIGGE Partners
  • Archive and Distribution Centres CMA, ECMWF,
    NCAR (more in phase 2!)
  • Data providers
  • BMRC (Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre)
  • CMA (China Meteorological Administration)
  • CPTEC (Centro de Previsao de Tempo e Estudos
    Climaticos),
  • ECMWF
  • FNMOC (Fleet Numerical Meteorology and
    Oceanography Center)
  • JMA (Japan Meteorological Agency),
  • KMA (Korea Meteorological Administration)
  • Meteo-France,
  • MS Canada (Meteorological Service of Canada)
  • NCEP
  • UKMO
  • TIGGE Web site ECMWF
  • Meta-data centre NCAR
  • Verification Web site JMA

35
The GIFS-TIGGE WG
  • Philippe Bougeault ECMWF
  • David Richardson UKMO
  • Barbara Brown NCAR
  • Chen De Hui CMA
  • Beth Ebert BMRC
  • Martin Ehrendorfer Innsbruck
  • Tom Hamill NOAA CDC
  • Mark Roulston Penn State
  • Pedro Silva Dias CPTEC
  • Warren Tennant Africa
  • Zoltan Toth NCEP
  • Laurie Wilson MSC
  • Yoshiaki Takeuchi JMA
  • Hee Dong Yoo KMA

36
Data to include in priority
  • Ensemble forecasts generated routinely (often
    operationally) at different centres around the
    world. This is the core data of the TIGGE
    archive. The total daily data volume is expected
    to be around 200GB, based on a preliminary list
    of required parameters developed at the workshop.
  • Observational data and existing datasets
    including re-analyses and re-forecasts
  • Additional special datasets generated during the
    TIGGE project for specific research and
    applications.

37
Content - formats
  • GRIB2 agreed by all partners
  • Units, names of fields, accumulation periods,
    etc.. Will be identical for all data providers
  • Grids
  • Data Providers will be asked to provide data on
    grids of their own choosing, which are as close
    as possible to the native grid employed to carry
    out the predictions
  • Data Providers should ensure that appropriate
    software is available to the Data Centres to
    enable users to interpolate data to
    latitude/longitude grids and locations of their
    choosing
  • Data Providers should ensure that when revisions
    to their systems are made the interpolation
    software will still work.

38
User access Data retrieval
  • It is unavoidable that in Phase 1 each Archive
    Centre will provide data through a different user
    interface
  • The user interfaces will allow to download any
    set of data (sub-setting and sub-sampling
    facilities) at single points or on a regular
    lat-lon grid defined by the user
  • Automatic regular requests will be possible

39
TIGGE-LAM
  • LAM-EPS are an important component of the future
    GIFS
  • TIGGE-WG discussed roadmap towards TIGGE-LAM at
    its March 2006 meeting
  • The perceived priorities are
  • To facilitate exchange of initial and boundary
    conditions between ALL global ensembles and ALL
    LAM ensembles by agreed standard data formats and
    contents
  • To agree content and standard format of LAM
    ensemble data for wide exchange and evaluation
  • To exchange meta-data through a common Internet
    site
  • To explore which Centres are willing to take a
    leading role in offering
  • routine boundary conditions,
  • elocatable LAM ensembles
  • archiving services
  • Dissemination
  • etc.. for a TIGGE-LAM
  • To define Scientific Issues
  • To agree on verification and calibration
    methodologies and related implementation
    strategies

40
Actions towards TIGGE-LAM
  • A panel of experts is being appointed work by
    email initially, then possibly a physical meeting
    if funding can be secured
  • Tiziana Paccagnella (ARPA) has accepted to chair
    the panel and the panel work will start in Autumn
    2006
  • The panel will report to TIGGE-WG

41
TIGGE LAM Panel - Terms of Reference
  • 1. The Panel should propose to the GIFS-TIGGE WG
    a possible structure of the TIGGE-LAM component.
  • 2. The Panel should maintain the necessary
    liaison with already existing LAM EPS initiatives
    and with related new projects. A good monitoring
    of existing operational LAMs should also be
    provided by the Panel to evaluate possible
    contributions to TIGGE-LAM on specific
    geographical regions, in coordination with the
    THORPEX regional committees.
  • 3. The Panel should encourage a coordinated
    approach to LAM EPS and recommend solutions to
    facilitate the development of collaboration for
    the mutual benefit of WMO members.
  • 4. The Panel should formulate recommendations
    regarding the formats of global ensemble data
    provided as initial and boundary conditions for
    limited-area ensembles, keeping in mind the GIFS
    objective to facilitate the exchange of
    information. If possible, universal formats
    should be sought. The panel should formulate
    proposals to facilitate the interoperability
    (different LAMs driven by different GCMs) of the
    different modelling systems contributing to
    TIGGE.
  • 5. The Panel should formulate proposals for the
    creation of a coordinated distributed archive of
    limited-area ensemble forecasts. If possible
    formats for such an archive should be fully
    compatible with the formats already agreed for
    the archive of global ensemble forecasts under
    TIGGE

42
TIGGE LAM Panel - Terms of Reference (2)
  • 6. The Panel should survey the interest from
    various centres to act as archiving centres for
    limited-area ensemble forecasts, and more
    generally as resource centres for TIGGE-LAM.
  • 7. The Panel should contribute to the definition
    of scientific issues related to LAM EPS and
    particularly to TIGGE-LAM and should propose
    specific initiatives to explore these issues in a
    focused and organized way to advance LAM EPS.
  • 8. The Panel, in a close coordination with the
    GIFS-TIGGE WG, should propose guidelines as
    regards LAM EPS validation, calibration and
    combination.
  • 9. The panel will conduct its business initially
    by e-mail. Meetings will be arranged, pending
    available resources from the THORPEX Project
    Office or other sponsors, such as GEO.
  • 10 The panel will report to the GIFS-TIGGE-WG (in
    charge of developing TIGGE under the THORPEX Core
    Steering Committee). The Chair of the TIGGE-LAM
    panel will be invited to GIFS-TIGGE WG meetings.

43
Actions towards TIGGE-LAMList of issues to be
tackled and discussed
  • Interface to couple Global Ensembles (models) to
    LAMS
  • LAM output and formats
  • LAM archive
  • Calibration and Verification
  • Scientific topics to be addressed and
    investigated
  • WEB SITE
  • Links with other projects and bodies
  • Funding
  • Others.

44
Actions towards TIGGE-LAM
  • TIGGE-WG will urge the THORPEX Community to work
    on scientific issues of the coupling between
    global and LAM ensembles
  • Assess impacts of mismatch between the physical
    parameterizations of global and regional models
  • Assess the need to define bias corrections
  • Assess impacts of large mismatch in horizontal
    resolution
  • What is the best way of generating perturbations
    for LAM EPS?

45
TIGGE-LAM output and formats
  • The starting point is the list of parameters
    defined by the TIGGE WG. TIGGE-LAM can of course
    add or withdraw data to this list .
  • Recommended Fields must be produced with the
    same unit and keeping the same philosophy as
    regards cumulating and averaging periods (e.g.
    precipitation must be cumulated from the forecast
    start). The homogeneity between data from Global
    and LAM ensemble will make easier (feasible)
    verification and comparison.

46
TIGGE-LAMLinks with other projects and bodies
  • TIGGE GIFS (in Primis)
  • SRNWP gt Cooperation on Ensemble forecasting
  • NAEFS
  • ET-EPS of the CBS
  • Joint Working Group on Verification WGNEWWRP

47
Thank you again!
48
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