CONSEQUENCES OF REGIONAL SCALE NUCLEAR CONFLICTS AND ACTS OF INDIVIDIUAL NUCLEAR TERRORISM

1
Consequences of Regional-Scale Nuclear
Conflicts Understanding and Avoiding Nuclear
Catastrophe
Brian Toon Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic
Sciences Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space
Physics University of Colorado, Boulder
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History of Nuclear Warheads
R.S. Norris, H.M. Kristensen, Bull. Atom.
Scientists, 62 (4), 64 (2006).
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New nuclear states continue to appear
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Nuclear Weapons States
NWS
DeFacto
Israel, 116 (102-130)
North Korea, 10?, 2007
Pakistan, 52 (44-62), 1998
India, 85 (65-110), 1974, 1998
South Africa 7, dismantled 1989, 1979?
D. Albright, F. Berkhout, W. Walker, Plutonium
and Highly Enriched Uranium, 1996 (Oxford, 1997)
http//www.isis-online.org R.S. Norris, H.M.
Kristensen, Bull. Atom. Scientists, 61 (3), 64
(2005).
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Fatalities relative to previous conflicts
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Fatality Estimates for Nuclear Wars
Source Total Yield of Weapons Fatalities
Ambio (1982) (world) 5569 Mt 14,747 950,000,000
Harwell (1984) 1400 Mt gt3000 50-100,000,000 (blast)
OTA (1979) U.S. 1000s Mt 1000s 20-160,000,000
OTA (1979) Counterforce 2-20,000,000 (fallout)
Daugherty (1986) Counterforce 1340 Mt 3000 7-19,000,000 (blast)
Regional U.S. 0.75 Mt 50 4,000,000
Regional India/Pakistan 1.5 Mt 100 26,000,000
The deaths per kt are 100 times greater for small
yield weapons than for large ones.
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Fuel loading per person
We assume fuel loading is proportional to
population
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Soot Generation from 50, 15 kt Weapons
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Global ozone loss
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Summary

• The number of nuclear states is growing
• 40 countries have enough fissionable materials
  for 1-104 weapons.
• Modern nuclear weapons are small and lightweight.
  One weapon detonated by a terrorist could cause a
  million casualties.
• 50 nuclear explosions of 15 kt yield can cause as
  many fatalities as once projected for a full
  scale counterforce war between the superpowers.
• Large amounts of smoke can be generated from a
  regional war that could trigger global climate
  change and ozone loss affecting non-combatant
  countries.

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Based on the Papers
ATMOSPHERIC EFFECTS AND SOCIETAL CONSEQUENCES OF
REGIONAL SCALE NUCLEAR CONFLICTSAND ACTS OF
INDIVIDUAL NUCLEAR TERRORISM Owen B. Toon,
Richard P. Turco, Alan Robock, Charles Bardeen,
Luke Oman, Georgiy L. StenchikovAtmos. Chem.
Phys. . 7, 2003-2012, 2007
and
CLIMATIC CONSEQUENCES OF REGIONAL SCALE NUCLEAR
CONFLICTS Alan Robock, Luke Oman, Georgiy L.
Stenchikov, Owen B. Toon, Charles Bardeen,
Richard P. Turco Atmos. Chem. Phys., 7,
1973-2002, 2007
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End of talk the following are spare slides
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40 countries have the fissile material to build
at least one bomb
1-100 weapons
100-1000 weapons
gt1000 weapons
D. Albright, F. Berkhout, W. Walker, Plutonium
and Highly Enriched Uranium, 1996 (Oxford, 1997)
http//www.isis-online.org
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Radiation Fatalities for Various Countries from
50 weapons with yield of 15 kt