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Geography 101

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Soviets pro-'liberation' in Cuba, Vietnam, Angola, South Africa, Chile, ... euro. European. Union. 10 new members join, 2004. Estonia. Latvia. Lithuania. Poland ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Geography 101


1
SOVIET RUSSIAN GEOPOLITICS
2
Mackinders Heartland Theory Drawn from Ratzels
geographic view of state as organism
3
Mackinders Heartland Theory
Whoever controls Heartland (Pivot Area) can
control world The Great Game between Britain,
Russia, 1800s-1900s Maritime powers need
control in Rimland (Inner Crescent), esp.
Middle East Prevent Russo-German alliance or
Russian control of Germany
4
Containment Theory
Extension of Mackinder Isolation of Soviets
after 1917 George Kennan (State
Dept) resurrects after WWII Encircle USSR with
military bases, treaties, alliances
5
Containment Theory
6
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7
View of Communist Red Bloc during Cold War
Lumping failed to recognize differences among
Communists, or local causes of conflict (Vietnam
War 1960s)
8
NATO and Warsaw Pact, 1945-89
9
xxxxx
10
NATO and Warsaw Pact
NATO not all democratic (Portugal, Spain, Greece,
Turkey) Brezhnev Doctrine prevents democratizatio
n in East U.S. saw Soviets as totalitarian,
rightist dictators as authoritarian
Greece 1968
Czechoslovakia 1968
11
WW III possible flashpoints
West Germany/West Berlin (1948, 1961) Yugoslavia
(1946, 1980s) Cuba (1961, 1962) Iran (1946,
1980) Fears of Soviet invasion?
12
Military budgets
Both economies reliant on military-industrial
complex U.S. forced Soviets to keep up? (Star
Wars 1983). Military spending still up since
Cold War National Missile Defense as US nuclear
umbrella
13
Third World
  • US-USSR indirect hot wars
  • Struggles mainly nationalist not Communist
  • Third World competed for aid
  • until Cold War ended
  • East-West competition in culture

Cuba
Vietnam
Star Trek
14
Third World
  • Soviets pro-liberation in Cuba,
  • Vietnam, Angola, South Africa, Chile,
  • Nicaragua, Palestine, etc.

East German posters
15
China Rivalry
Mao felt Khrushchev sold out Communism Competed
in Third World Cultural Revolution in China,
1960s
16
China Rivalry
Historic Chinese Claims in Siberia Border
clashes, 1969 Nearly nuclear war
17
China Card, 1972
Nixon visits Moscow, Détente started Nixon
visits China as counterweight Russian fear of
West, East teaming up Also saw West as
protection from China
18
George Orwells 1984
Oceania (NATO) Eurasia (USSR) Eastasia
(China)
19
On the sixth day of Hate Week, after the
processions, the speeches, the shouting, the
singing, the banners the rolling of drums and
squealing of trumpets, the tramp of marching
feet, the grinding of the caterpillars of
tanks, the roar of massed planes, the booming
of guns at just this moment it had been
announced that Oceania was not after all at war
with Eurasia. Oceania was at war with Eastasia.
Eurasia was an ally. There was, of course,
no admission that any change had taken place.
Merely it became known, with extreme
suddenness and everywhere at once, that
Eastasia and not Eurasia was the enemy. Oceania
was at war with Eastasia Oceania had always
been at war with Eastasia.
20
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21
Soviet military overextended beyond Russian Empire
Too far to East Diverted by China
Too far to (Catholic) West Unraveled in Poland,
Baltics
Too far to (Muslim) South Lost in Afghanistan
22
Breakup of Soviet Union into 15 states, 1991
23
Atlanticists vs. Eurasianists (both want Russia
as great power)
Atlanticists (Modernizers) Lean to West Russia
European Statist
Eurasianists (Slavophiles) Mistrust West Unique
E-W bridge Nationalist
24
Russias geopolitical fears revisited
Threat from East Resurgent China
Threat from West NATO expansion, U.S. missile
defense
Threat from South Muslim fundamentalism
25
North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), 2004
1999
1999
1999
Kosovo military zones
26
North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), 2004
New members Estonia Latvia Lithuania
Slovakia Slovenia Romania Bulgaria
Not yet Croatia Macedonia Albania
27
Russian fears rekindled
Historic buffer vs. West shrunk - Expanded NATO
border on Russia Kaliningrad enclave cut off by
NATO NATO intervenes vs. Serbs in
ex-Yugo. -Russians balance force in Kosovo U.S.
troops in Hungary, Bosnia, Kosovo
28
Iraq Crisis, 2003
Russia sides with Germany, France, Belgium -
Mackinder theory - Like brief Soviet alliance
with France, 1935-39 Eastern European NATO
members side with U.S. -Polish troops head up
sector, others send non-combat - Polls show
majority public opposition (all but
Romania) Historic realignment underway? -
Independent Western Europe with Russia - U.S.
sphere of influence in UK, East-Central Europe
29
Government Positions on Iraq War, 2004
Blue Supported war (some withdrew 2005) Green
Did not oppose war Red Opposed war
Gray Neutral
In E. Europe polls, only Romanians backed their
governments pro-war position
30
New U.S. military bases
Base clusters left over from recent wars
creating a U.S. sphere of influence between
Europe, Russia and East Asia?
  • Gulf War,
  • 1991
  • 2. Yugoslav Wars,
  • 1995-99
  • 3. Afghan War,
  • 2001
  • 4. Iraq War,
  • 2003

31
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32
Russian preferences
Independent European military force -Taking over
ex-Yugo. peacekeeping Decoupling of U.S.,
Western Europe Or Russia becoming full NATO
member
33
Reassurance for Putin?
Partnership for Peace Future NATO membership for
Russia, CIS? U.S.-Russian oil alliance vs.
OPEC Allow free hand in Chechnya, Georgia
34
Russian intervention in Caucasus region




35
Caspian Basinoil and gaspipelines
Routes through Russia, Turkey, Iran, China,
Afghanistan
36
Oil/gas pipeline routes
xxxxx Xxxxx Xxxxx xxxxx
37
Putin vs. Muslims
Crushed Muslim secession in Chechnya, curbed in
Tatarstan Fought Muslim rebels in Uzbek.,
Tajik. Allowed U.S. troops in Central Asia,
Georgia after 9/11 Continued verbal support
for Iraqi, Palestinian people
38
Putin and East Asia
Visited China, placated Eurasianists China
better economy, huge market 1/4 million Chinese
illegals in Siberia Asian companies in
Siberia Japan talks over trade, Kuril Is.
claims
39
How Many Americans View the World
40
Cartoon Bushs View of the World Problem some
former allies later seen as evil
41
Clash of Civilizations theory
Samuel Huntington theory of Western, Islamic,
Slavic, etc. blocs in conflict with each
other.
42
Clash of Civilizations theory
Fails to recognize differences within each
bloc. Most sources of conflict are local
(often ethnic), not religious. Often blames the
victim for the conflict (Chechens, etc). West
shares responsibility (military aid arms both
sides)
43
Push of USSR, Pull of EU
44
European Union
euro
Began as European Economic Community (EEC),
1957. EU decision 1988 Implemented 1994
45
European Union
10 new members join, 2004
Estonia Latvia Lithuania Poland Czech Rep.
Slovakia Hungary Slovenia Cyprus Malta
2007 Romania Bulgaria Turkey ???
46
A Blue Curtain?
Catholic/Protestant West Orthodox/Muslim
East Who will be welcome in the EU
club? Orthodox Greece in EU
47
A Blue Curtain?
Eastern Europe as a Mexico for West? Less
developed economy Reserve for labor?
Border towers moved from Hungary to Austria
48
Religious minorities
Orthodox stuck in West Serbs in Croatia
(expelled) Russians in Kaliningrad Russians in
Baltic States
49
Religious minorities
Catholics stuck in East Croats in
Bosnia Hungarians in Romania Uniates in
western Ukraine Poles in Ukraine/Belarus Also
Lutheran Karelian Finns in Russia
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