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Global Warming: The Five Ws

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How are we going to address it? Where are climate ... We are told our planet's climate is warming; ... EU leaders hide themselves behind Putin's finger! When... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Global Warming: The Five Ws


1
  • Global Warming The Five Ws
  • Carlo Stagnaro
  • Director, Free Market Environmentalism
  • Istituto Bruno Leoni
  • www.brunoleoni.it
  • Carlo.Stagnaro_at_brunoleoni.it

2
New Zealander Cow
3
European Cow
4
Mad Cow
5
Questions
  • What is global warming? How are we going to
    address it?
  • Where are climate policies to be enforced?
  • When will this happen?
  • Who is going to do this?
  • Why are they doing so?

6
What?
  • We are told our planets climate is warming
  • We are told that responsibility is upon
    humanitys shoulder (especially developed world)
  • We are told we should cut greenhouse gases (GHGs)
    emissions
  • That would have a huge economic cost.

7
What?
  • Temperature has always changed!
  • We had glaciations, and that was a cold era
  • We have no longer glaciations ours is a warm era.

8
What?
Should you be a sailor who discover this
land, HOW WOULD YOU CALL IT? Perhaps Whiteland?
9
What?
  • Around 1000 A.D. Vikings discovered a green land,
    and called it Greenland
  • Today Green land is not so green

10
What?
  • In 1757 Giandomenico Tiepolo painted an Italian
    Summer walk
  • People are not dressed in a Summerish way
    according to todays standards.

11
What?
Surface measurements seem to indicate a trend
towards a warmer temperature.
12
What?
  • Four periods
  • 1880-1910 -0,1 C
  • 1911-1940 0,4 C
  • 1941-1967 -0,2 C
  • 1968-1998 0,5 C.

The 70s scam was global cooling!
13
What?
  • IS A NEW ICE AGE COMING?
  • A cooling trend has set in, perhaps one akin to
    the Little Ice Age
  • Stephen Schneider, quote cited in The Washington
    Times, June 12, 1992

14
What?
Trend 1979-2003 0.079 C per decade (Trend
1968-98 as measured by surface stations 0.16C)
15
What?
Trend 1968-98 as measured by surface stations
0.16C 0.3 C !!!!!!
16
What?
  • To summarize
  • We dont know whats happening
  • We dont know what we have actually measured so
    far
  • We dont know how to measure it
  • We dont know why climate changes.

17
How?
  • Climate alarmists are supporting the Kyoto
    Protocol and other measures aimed at cutting
    GHGs
  • We dont know if manmade emissions have a
    significant role in climate change
  • Probably they dont, because climate dynamics are
    governed by many factors over which man has no
    control.

18
What?
19
How?
  • Even assuming that anthropogenic emission have a
    role, the effect of complying with the Kyoto
    targets is negligible.

20
How?
21
How?
  • Unfortunately, Kyoto costs are not negligible
  • Kyoto requires a reduction in GHGs emission, i.e.
    energy consumption
  • Energy prices would rise because of Kyoto
  • GDP would fall and thousands jobs would be lost.

22
How?
  • Developed countries emission should be zero by
    2050 to meet the IPCC target of stabilizing
    atmospheric CO2 at 550 ppm.

23
How?
  • Most countries need huge cuts to comply with
    the post-2012 targets.

24
How?
  • Despite its strong support to Kyoto, the EU is
    not on doing what its campaigning for.

25
How?
  • The impact of the Kyoto Protocol in Europe would
    range from 1.8 GDP (UK) to 4.8 GDP (Spain)
    (ICCF Estimates)
  • The so called emission trading is a scheme
    which would make emissions reduction more
    efficient, therefore more costly to consumers.
  • More info at www.iccfglobal.org

26
Where?
  • European Union is the biggest supporter of Kyoto
  • However, EEA pointed out that EU emissions are
    growing despite the costly policies member states
    are adopting (high energy prices, subsidies to
    renewables, etc.).

27
Where?
  • The key country is Russia. Without Russia, Kyoto
    will not formally enter in force, because less
    than 55 emissions are represented by the
    countries which have ratified so far.
  • Russia is not likely to ratify, although it would
    be a short term winner because of Kyoto.

28
Where?
  • In the next few years, Russia could sell quotas
    (basically because the baseline year is 1990,
    just after the collapse of USSR)
  • President Putin declared his economic goal is to
    double GDP by 10 years
  • That will not be possible if Russia will not buy
    quotas in the longer run.

29
Where?
  • In the longer run, Russia would be a looser.

30
Where?
  • I have called my speech 'The Return of Gosplan.
    But the proposed mechanism would decrease quotas
    year by year. ... So it may be more correct to
    call it the return of the gulag.
  • During the 20th century, Russia seriously
    suffered from another ideology that came from
    Europe. ... Not only Russia, but the whole world
    suffered.
  • Andrej Illarionov, Chief Economic Advisor to the
    Russian President Vladimir Putin

31
Where?
  • At a ministerial meeting in Brussels on Tuesday
    (March 3rd, 2004)environment minister Altero
    Matteoli made a prolonged attempt to force a
    declaration from his colleagues that future
    emission-cutting action should depend on the
    treaty being ratified by Russia and thus entering
    into force. (Environmental Daily)
  • We hope that Kyoto will be ratified, for example
    by Russia. But if that doesn't happen, it will
    distort competition at the expense of European
    and especially German economy, German Chancellor
    Gerhard Schroeder.
  • We are following a strategy (of respecting the
    Kyoto Protocol) at the moment, but we need to
    look at other possible scenarios, EU Energy
    Commissioner Loyola de Palacio.
  • EU leaders hide themselves behind Putins finger!

32
When?
  • Kyotos first commitment period is just behind
    the corner (2008-2012)
  • IF EU and others really want to implement it,
    they should go further now or doing nothing
  • IPCC targets are much stricter for the post-2012
    period
  • Do we really want to prevent economic growth
    because of bad weather 100 years from now?

33
When?
  • Assuming that EU will go on with Kyoto, the
    question is not if, but when a member country
    will reject the treaty
  • Whats EU going to do if faced with a reluctant
    country?
  • Trade sanctions? Expulsion? In the latter case,
    the anti-Kyoto country could be better off (fewer
    trade barriers, lower taxes, lighter regulation,
    etc.)

34
When?
35
Who?
  • Basically there are two kind of people who are
    pushing towards Kyoto
  • People who have an economical or political
    interest in climate policies
  • People who have an ideological interest in
    climate policies
  • Their behavior is well described by the baptists
    and bootleggers theory.

36
Who?
  • The baptists and bootleggers theory shows how
    two appartently conflicting groups may pursue the
    same goal
  • The term originates in the Southern USA, where in
    the past and even today Sunday closing laws
    prevent the legal sale of alcoholic beverages.

37
Who?
  • This is advantageous to bootleggers, who sell
    alcoholic beverages illegally
  • They get all the market for themselves on Sunday.

38
Who?
  • Baptists and other religious groups support the
    same laws
  • They are opposed to selling alcohol at all, but
    especially on Sunday.

39
Who?
  • Baptists take the moral high ground
  • The bootleggers persuade politicians quietly,
    behind closed doors.

40
Who?
  • Climate baptists are (radical) environmentalists,
    who make an ideological opposition to whatever
    change man may do to the environment (including
    urbanization, industrialization, and perhaps
    agriculture)
  • (Radical) environmentalists have a gnostic
    approach to policy they believe that man is
    inherently ugly so government should prevent men
    from behaving as men
  • (Radical) environmentalists see global warming as
    a means to pursue their political goal, i.e. the
    animalization of man.

41
Who?
  • To capture the public imagination, we have to
    offer up some scary scenarios, make simplified
    dramatic statements and little mention of any
    doubts one might have. Each of us has to decide
    the right balance between being effective, and
    being honest
  • Stephen Schneider

42
Who?
  • Climate bootleggers are environmental
    opportunists, and economical/political rent
    seekers
  • For example, the wind industry in particular (and
    renewables industry in general) is lobbying for
    getting subsidies
  • Some politicians fuel environmental scams in
    order to sell themselves as those who are
    saving our only planet and get votes.

43
Who?
  • The urge to save humanity is almost always a
    false front for the urge to rule.
  • H.L. Mencken

44
Why?
  • The reasons of climate bootleggers are easy to
    understand
  • Industry seeks immediate benefits
  • Politicians seek power
  • Climate baptists are the heirs of the old central
    planners
  • They believe human action should be directed by a
    sort of central brain which takes care of all
  • They also believe that market (i.e., freedom) is
    dangerous because man is bad-intentioned in the
    first place.

45
Why?
  • In fact, climate baptists, as well as other
    environmental baptists, are simply socialists
  • After the collapse of communism (which
    incidentally was responsible of real
    environmental tragedies), the red dream of a
    man-made Earthly heaven have turned into the
    green dream of a man-free, Earthly heaven.

46
Why?
  • Often environmental concerns may be founded, but
    the solution proposed by most environmentalist
    organization is not a cure
  • Statism will lead to a lower environmental
    quality because it implies an inefficient use of
    scarce resources (including environmental
    resources).

47
Why?
  • Climate change is an opportunity for them to
    propose a global deal against capitalism, i.e.
    global socialism
  • Rent seekers are doing their job, that is,
    seeking rents
  • Consumers, especially the poor, would be deeply
    impacted by Kyoto because of higher price of
    energy, lower standards of living, and fewer
    opportunities of getting richer.

48
Conclusions
  • Is climate warming? Maybe!
  • Climate is always changing
  • It makes no sense to address natural changes by
    way of anthropogenic measures
  • Kyoto would result in immediate, relevant costs
    vis-a-vis distant in time, uncertain benefits
  • It is unlikely that extra-EU, developed countries
    will ratify Kyoto.

49
Conclusions
  • The first commitment period is 2008-2012, so if
    we want to do something, we must do it now and
    we cant afford it (EUs growth last year was not
    growth at all)
  • The Kyoto protocol is sponsored by a coalition of
    climate baptists and bootleggers they are not
    the very kind of people you find reliable
  • Climate control is not about climate it is about
    control.

50
Conclusions
  • We should focus on real problems and facts,
    rather than environmental scams
  • The most urgent need to address is poverty
    (almost 1 billion are starving), not weather
  • The key to progress is the creation of wealth,
    which make it possible adaptation to changes,
    whether anthropogenic or natural
  • Free market save human lives and makes
    environment cleaner
  • Wealthier is healthier for all except for
    ideological environmentalists and rent seekers.

51
Thank you for your attention Carlo
Stagnaro Director, Free Market Environmentalism
Contact Carlo.Stagnaro_at_brunoleoni.it
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