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COGA August, 2003

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Title: COGA August, 2003


1
COGA August, 2003 Decarbonization The Coming
Natural Gas Economy Scott W. Tinker Bureau of
Economic Geology John A. and Katherine G. Jackson
School of GeosciencesThe University of Texas at
Austin
Scott Tinker, Director Bureau of Economic
Geology August 4, 2003
2
The four EEEEs Energy, Environment, Economy,
and Education are inextricably linked. We have
a unique opportunity to positively impact the
global 4-E balance in the 21st century.
Scott Tinker, Director Bureau of Economic
Geology August 4, 2003
3
Humanitys Top Ten Problemsfor next 50 years
  1. ENERGY
  2. WATER
  3. FOOD
  4. ENVIRONMENT
  5. POVERTY
  6. TERRORISM WAR
  7. DISEASE
  8. EDUCATION
  9. DEMOCRACY
  10. POPULATION

Nobel Laureate Dr. Richard Smalley, 2003
Scott Tinker, Director Bureau of Economic
Geology August 4, 2003
4
Outline
  • Global Decarbonization
  • Why the Trend Towards Gas
  • Creating a Global Gas Economy
  • Challenge of Meeting Demand
  • Opportunities

Scott Tinker, Director Bureau of Economic
Geology August 4, 2003
QAd1023
5
Scott Tinker, Director Bureau of Economic
Geology August 4, 2003
6
World Energy Consumption
U.S. Data Annual Energy Review 1999 (EIA,
2000) World Data International Energy Annual
1999 (EIA, 2000)
Scott Tinker, Director Bureau of Economic
Geology August 4, 2003
7
Energy Demand
Scott Tinker, Director Bureau of Economic
Geology August 4, 2003
8
U.S. Energy Consumption
Tinker Forecast
1 Quad Btu 1 Tcf Gas
Scott Tinker, Director Bureau of Economic
Geology August 4, 2003
QAd1023
QAd1023
9
Why the Long-Term Trend Towards Natural Gas?
  • Efficiency
  • Economy
  • Environment
  • Availability

Scott Tinker, Director Bureau of Economic
Geology August 4, 2003
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10
Why Natural Gas? Efficiency
Scott Tinker, Director Bureau of Economic
Geology August 4, 2003
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11
Why Natural Gas? Economy/Efficiency
Scott Tinker, Director Bureau of Economic
Geology August 4, 2003
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12
Why Natural Gas? Economy
Scott Tinker, Director Bureau of Economic
Geology August 4, 2003
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13
Why Natural Gas? Environmental Quality
Scott Tinker, Director Bureau of Economic
Geology August 4, 2003
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14
Why Natural Gas? Resource Availability
1999 NPC Study (NPC, 1999b)
Recoverable Portion of In-Place Gas Resource (Tcf)
Scott Tinker, Director Bureau of Economic
Geology August 4, 2003
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15
Creating a Global Gas Economy
  • Enhance Reserves
  • Create Resources
  • Transport
  • Sequester

Scott Tinker, Director Bureau of Economic
Geology August 4, 2003
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16
Enhance U.S. Consumption Forecast
Enhance
Scott Tinker, Director Bureau of Economic
Geology August 4, 2003
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17
EnhanceKey Technologies of the 90s
Deep-water, Sub-sea, FPSO
Horizontal Drilling, Geosteering, Rotary
Steering Systems
3D Seismic, Computer Assisted Exploration
Source Bates, 2002, GCAGS Baker Hughes
Scott Tinker, Director Bureau of Economic
Geology August 4, 2003
18
Enhance Enhanced Gas Recovery
Excellent
Insignificant
Portfolio of EGR Field Studies Overall EGR
technologies in these seven fields yielded
incremental production response of 231 Bcf.
Scott Tinker, Director Bureau of Economic
Geology August 4, 2003
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19
Create New Resources
U.S. Consumption
Scott Tinker, Director Bureau of Economic
Geology August 4, 2003
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20
Create U.S. Natural Gas Production
Conventional Unconventionals Tight (Low
Permeability) Shale Coalbed Methane
Tight Gas, Shale Gas, CBM
gt50
Unconventional Unconventionals Deep (gt15,000
ft) Subsalt Ultra-Deep Water Methane Hydrates
Associated and High-Perm Gas
EIA (1949-1990) and NPC (1991-2015)
Scott Tinker, Director Bureau of Economic
Geology August 4, 2003
QAd1023
21
Create Tight Gas
4,000.0
3,500.0
3,000.0
2,500.0
2,000.0
Bcf
1,500.0
11 Tcf Incremental Gas
1,000.0
500.0
0.0
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
Scott Tinker, Director Bureau of Economic
Geology August 4, 2003
GRI, 1999, GRIs Gas Resource Database. DOE
personal communication.
QAd1023
22
MAJOR PRODUCTIVE TIGHT GAS BASINS (Technically
Recoverable Resources)
San Juan (5.6 Tcf)
78 Tcf
Data NPC (2000), Based on estimates of NPC
(1993), San Juan Basin tight gas resource
included with oil field reserve appreciation and
new fields in NPC (2000)
Scott Tinker, Director Bureau of Economic
Geology August 4, 2003
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23
Create Shale Gas
Antrim Shale Research Appalachian Basin Shales
350.0
300.0
250.0
200.0
Bcf
150.0
2.2 Tcf Incremental Gas
100.0
DOE (1976-1992)
50.0
0.0
1980
1985
1990
1995
Scott Tinker, Director Bureau of Economic
Geology August 4, 2003
GRI, 1999, GRIs Gas Resource Database. DOE
personal communication.
QAd1023
24
MAJOR PRODUCTIVE DEVONIAN SHALE
BASINS Technically Recoverable Resources
40 Tcf
Scott Tinker, Director Bureau of Economic
Geology August 4, 2003
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25
Create Coalbed Methane
1,200.0
1,000.0
800.0
2
600.0
Bcf
Wellhead Price (/Mcf)
400.0
4.5 Tcf Incremental Gas
200.0
1
0.0
1980
1985
1990
1995
Scott Tinker, Director Bureau of Economic
Geology August 4, 2003
GRI, 1999, GRIs Gas Resource Database. DOE
personal communication.
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26
MAJOR PRODUCTIVE COALBED METHANE BASINS (Total
Most Likely Resources)
81 Tcf
Scott Tinker, Director Bureau of Economic
Geology August 4, 2003
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27
MAJOR PRODUCTIVE DEEP (gt15,000 FT) GAS
BASINS (Total Most Likely Resources)
62 Tcf
Scott Tinker, Director Bureau of Economic
Geology August 4, 2003
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28
MAJOR PRODUCTIVE DEEP-WATER GAS BASINS (Total
Most Likely Resources)
71 Tcf
Scott Tinker, Director Bureau of Economic
Geology August 4, 2003
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29
Technology Investment Resource Creation
Unc. Gas Major Basins (Technically
Recoverable) Tight Gas 78 Tcf Shale Gas 40
Tcf CBM 81 Tcf Deep Gas 62 Tcf Deep Water 71
Tcf 332 Tcf
EIA (1949-1990) and NPC (1991-2015)
Scott Tinker, Director Bureau of Economic
Geology August 4, 2003
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30
Transport
North America Natural Gas Transports (Bcf)
Scott Tinker, Director Bureau of Economic
Geology August 4, 2003
31
Sequester
  • The sustainability of a hydrocarbon-fueled
    economy requires that we support an environment
    and energy win-win.
  • Capture carbon dioxide and return it to the
    subsurface for the economic benefit of enhanced
    hydrocarbon recovery and the environmental
    benefit of reduced atmospheric carbon dioxide.

Scott Tinker, Director Bureau of Economic
Geology August 4, 2003
32
Monitor
Injector
A
B
BEG Texas Frio Pilot Project
C
440 ft
100 ft
Scott Tinker, Director Bureau of Economic
Geology August 4, 2003
33
Challenge of Meeting Natural Gas Demand
Scott Tinker, Director Bureau of Economic
Geology August 4, 2003
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34
Meeting Demand Oil and Gas RD Funding
Note Scale Difference
Scott Tinker, Director Bureau of Economic
Geology August 4, 2003
35
Meeting Demand Oil Company Employment
1,800
Largest 25 Oil Companies
1,400
Number of employees (thousands)
1,000
600
1978
1998
1994
1990
1986
1974
1982
Year
Scott Tinker, Director Bureau of Economic
Geology August 4, 2003
36
Meeting Demand UNIVERSITY ENROLLMENTS
Scott Tinker, Director Bureau of Economic
Geology August 4, 2003
37
The Challenge
Time
Scott Tinker, Director Bureau of Economic
Geology August 4, 2003
38
Summary
Global oil and coal consumption will remain at
current levels for 30-50 years.
Natural gas and other energy sources will need to
fill the global demand gap.
The global economy and environment will benefit
from a transition to natural gas.
Scott Tinker, Director Bureau of Economic
Geology August 4, 2003
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39
Global Opportunities Benefits
Research and technology for a gas industry are
different than for an oil industry.
Unconventional sources will require significant
geoscience and engineering advancements to be
economically viable.
Sequestration of greenhouse gases will be
required to handle atmospheric emissions, and
will need geoscience and engineering
understanding.
Scott Tinker, Director Bureau of Economic
Geology August 4, 2003
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40
Thank You!
Scott Tinker, Director Bureau of Economic
Geology August 4, 2003
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