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Climate Crisis

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Title: Climate Crisis


1
Climate Crisis Global and African
Dimensions Mohamed Adow Christian
Aid presented _at_ ATN12, Accra, August09
  • A wealthy minority of the worlds countries and
    corporations are the principal cause of climate
    change its adverse effects fall first and
    foremost on the majority that is poor. This basic
    and undeniable truth forms the foundation of the
    global climate justice movement.

2
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4
Temperature increase related to Climate Change
So if temperature has increased by 0.8C, at
least 0.7C is due to anthropogenic (i.e.
man-made emissions of greenhouse gases)
5
You dont want to be here
Potential impacts according to the Stern Review
You are here
  • Severe impacts in marginal Sahel region
  • Small mountain glaciers disappear worldwide -
    potential threat to water supplies in several
    areas
  • Coral reef ecosystems extensively and eventually
    irreversibly damaged
  • Onset of irreversible melting of the Greenland
    ice sheet

6
AR3 QUOTATION ON THE VULNERABILITY OF AFRICA
  • Although Africa of all the major world regions,
    has contributed least to potential climate change
    because of its low per capita energy use and
    hence low greenhouse gas emissions, it is the
    most vulnerable continent to climate change
    because widespread poverty limits capacity to
    adapt. The ultimate socio- economic impacts will
    depend on the relative resilience and adaptation
    abilities of different social groups.

7
  • Failure to combat climate change will increase
    poverty and hardship in our nations, and increase
    the debts owed to us for excessive emissions by
    the developed countries
  • The LDC Group (49 countries)
  • Proposals by developed countries in the climate
    negotiations, on both mitigation and adaptation,
    are inadequateWe therefore call on developed
    countries to fully, effectively and immediately
    repay the climate debt they owe to African
    countries
  • PACJA, AMCEN Statement

8
Developing countries face Triple Crisis
  • Poverty 2.6 billion people living in income
    poverty, but also without many basic rights
  • Climate change The impact of a small level of
    global warming is already intensifying poverty
  • The threat of the solution Poor people likely to
    be denied their right to use the atmosphere
    the crisis of false/unfair climate solutions

9
in the midst of a development crisis?
  • 2 billion people without access to clean cooking
    fuels
  • More than 1.5 billion people without electricity
  • More than 1 billion have poor access to fresh
    water
  • About 800 million people chronically
    undernourished
  • 2 million children die per year from diarrhea
  • 30,000 deaths each day from preventable diseases

9
10
UNFCCC The preamble
  • Acknowledging the global nature of climate
    change calls for the widest possible cooperation
    by all countries and their participation in an
    effective and appropriate international response,
    in accordance with their common but
    differentiated responsibilities and respective
    capabilities

10
11
The basis for fair and effective outcomes under
UNFCCC
  • A fair and effective solution to climate change
    requires a principle-based approach
  • Responsibilities and capabilities should be
    established on the basis of
  • Latest science
  • Equity and fairness
  • Relevant principles and provisions of the
    Convention
  • A focus on climate budget/debt
  • Promotes fair sharing of the Global Commons --
    including the Earths limited atmospheric space
    -- between rich and poor
  • Addresses adaptation, mitigation, financing and
    technology aspects of climate change in a
    holistic manner
  • Provides a basis for a fair, effective and
    development-oriented outcomes in Copenhagen under
    the Climate Convention and its Kyoto Protocol

12
Repay the climate debt!
  • Rich countries and corporations are the main
    cause of climate change
  • Poor countries, communities and people are its
    first and worst victims
  • Rich owe the poor a climate debt for
  • Excessive emissions (emissions debt)
  • Climate harms (adaptation debt)
  • Climate debt provides a science-based and
    principled approach to solving climate change

13
A crisis of climate and development
  • Climate change threatens the balance of life on
    Earth and the survival and prosperity of billions
    of people, especially the poor in developing
    countries
  • Crops are failing, livestock dying, people are
    going hungry and thirsty
  • Oceans are rising and acidifying ice caps and
    glaciers are melting forests, coral reefs and
    other ecosystems are changing or collapsing
  • The existence of some communities is imperilled,
    while others face growing barriers to their
    development
  • Unless curbed, an impending climate catastrophe
    risks increasingly violent weather, collapsing
    food systems, mass migration and massive human
    conflict
  • The solutions to climate change -- unless fair
    and effective -- may also undermine development
  • Any just solution to climate change must address
    these crises holistically and be fair, effective
    and development-oriented. To be effective, the
    solution to climate change must also be fair.

14
Problems of the poor
  • Poor countries, communities and people have
    contributed least to the causes of climate
    change, yet are among its first and worst
    victims
  • Indigenous and local communities are harmed by
    changing ecosystems and threats to traditional
    livelihoods
  • Farmers and farming communities. In some
    countries rain-fed agriculture is expected to
    drop by up to 50 by 2020, leaving millions
    without food
  • Women. 70 of the worlds poor are women. Women
    provide half of the worlds food. They are the
    hardest hit by climate change and must be at the
    heart of any solution
  • Poor communities concentrated in high-risk areas,
    such as coastal and river flood plains, or areas
    prone to extreme weather are particularly at risk
  • People relying on scarce water resources. Between
    75 and 250 million of people are likely to face
    increased water stress by 2020 due to climate
    change
  • Communities susceptible to health impacts. The
    health of millions of people will likely be
    affected through malnutrition, diseases and death
    and injury from extreme weather
  • The poor are harmed both by climate change and by
    the activities -- fossil fuel extraction,
    deforestation, large-scale agribusiness -- that
    cause it
  • The rights of these affected communities must be
    at the center of efforts to address climate change

15
Responsibilities of the rich
  • A wealthy minority of the worlds countries,
    corporations and people are the principal cause
    of climate change
  • Developed countries
  • Have consumed more than their fair share of the
    Earths atmospheric space
  • Emitted almost three quarters of all historical
    emissions
  • Emitted, on a per person basis, more than ten
    times the historical emissions of developing
    countries
  • Are emitting, on a per person basis, more than
    four times the current emissions of developing
    countries
  • Large corporations have also played a major role
  • Oil and coal (Exxon, Shell, etc)
  • Agribusiness (Cargill, ADM, etc))
  • Large-scale forestry
  • Automotive (GM, Ford, etc)
  • False solutions (Nuclear, Bio-fuels)
  • Their excessive historical and current emissions
    occupy the atmosphere and are the main cause of
    current and committed future warming harming the
    poor
  • Continued excessive emissions means the Global
    Commons -- including the Earths limited
    atmospheric space or emissions budget -- is
    being taken from the poor by the rich without
    compensation for use by the wealthiest and most
    polluting corporations

16
The concept of climate debt
  • For their excessive contribution to the causes
    and consequences of climate change, a rich
    minority owe a two-fold climate debt to the poor
    majority
  • Emissions debt
  • The rich are over-consuming the Global Commons
  • The poor are being denied their fair share
    without compensation
  • The rich thus owe an emissions debt for
    over-consumption of shared atmospheric space
  • Adaptation debt
  • Over-consumption by the rich is the main cause of
    climate change
  • The poor are now suffering its adverse effects
  • The rich thus owe an adaptation debt for
    climate costs and harms
  • Together the sum of these debts emissions debt
    and adaptation debt constitutes a climate debt
  • Climate debt is part of a larger ecological,
    social and economic debt owed by the rich
    industrialized world to the poor majority

17
Excessive use of atmospheric space An emissions
debt
  • The Global Commons -- including the Earths
    atmospheric space -- are a resource to be fairly
    shared among all people and life
  • Rich countries, corporations and people have
    consumed more than their fair share, causing
    climate change while benefiting from cheap
    carbon growth
  • They now propose denying the poor a fair share of
    the remainder by 1) continuing their high
    per-person emissions and 2) locking the poor
    into low and declining per-person emissions
  • Rich countries have also failed to offer the
    financing and technology required by developing
    countries to develop under the constraints of a
    limited global emissions budget. Rather, they
    propose strengthening intellectual property
    rights and control over technologies.
  • Rich countries, in other words, are appropriating
    the Earths emissions budget for use by their
    wealthiest and most polluting corporations and
    people without compensation to the poor, who will
    need it in the course of their development
  • Developing countries must now develop under the
    twin burdens of mitigating and adapting to
    climate change
  • Excessive emissions by the rich -- denying the
    poor a fair share of the Global Commons --
    constitutes an emissions debt

18
Fair carbon budgetting (2)
  • World has only 600 g ton of carbon emission to
    budget between 1800 to 2500
  • Given population ratio, the equitable share of
    annex I countries is 125 GtC of the total 600. 
    Non Annex I should be allocated 475 GtC in an
    equitable system.
  • But Annex I has already consumed (years 1800 to
    2008) 240 GtC, which is 115 GtC above its fair
    share of 125 GtC.
  • And given the scenario (global cut by 50 by 2050
    and Annex I cut of 85), Annex I will consume
    another 85 GtC from 2009 to 2050.
  •  
  • Thus the total Annex I consumption is 325 GtC in
    all, from 1800 to 2050.  Since its fair share is
    125 GtC, there is a Carbon Debt of 200 GtC.

19
Carbon budgeting
  • On the other hand, if there was a fair sharing of
    allocation of carbon space, developing countries
    have a share of 475 GtC for years 1800 to 2050. 
  • However the situation till now plus the scenarios
    if accepted for now to 2050 would mean that
    developing countries can in actual fact
    only emit  275 GtC.  Thus they are
    under-consuming by 200 GtC.
  • However the situation till now plus the scenarios
    if accepted for now to 2050 would mean that
    developing countries can in actual fact
    only emit  275 GtC.  Thus they are
    under-consuming by 200 GtC.
  •  

20
Actual vs Fair Carbon Budget
  • in gigatonne carbon
  • 1800- 2009- Total
    Fair
  • 2008 2050
    Share
  • Annex I 240 85 325
    125
  • Non A1 91 184 275
    475
  • Total 331 269 600
    600
  • Assuming 50 global cut and Annex1 cut by 85 in
    1990-2050

21
Historical emissions debt
  • Developed countries historical and current
    excessive emissions are limiting the atmospheric
    space available to developing countries
  • With less than twenty percent of the worlds
    population, they are responsible for around three
    quarters of historical emissions (Fig 1)
  • This far exceeds their fair share on a per person
    equal allocation (Fig 2)
  • Excessive emissions by the rich have caused
    climate change and denied atmospheric space to
    the poor, giving rise to an emissions debt
  • Developed countries intend to write-off rather
    than repay this debt to poor countries,
    communities and people

Figure 1
Figure 2
22
Increasing emission debt
  • Developed countries now seek to appropriate a
    disproportionate share of the Earths remaining
    atmospheric space
  • By basing their future emission allowances on
    their past excessive level of emissions they
    would deepen their emissions debt
  • A wealthy minority will continue to occupy
    excessive space through to 2050 denying a shared
    resource to the poorer majority who needs it in
    the course of their development
  • Economists value the annual emissions budget at
    over 1 trillion dollars
  • The rich countries are thus proposing to take
    billions of dollars in shared resources from the
    South, without compensation
  • This constitutes one of the largest distributions
    of wealth and resources in modern history -- to
    some, a form of climate colonialism

Figure 3
Figure 4
23
National obligations based on capacity and
responsibility in 2010
  Population Income (/capita) Capacity Responsibility RCI (obligations)
EU 27 7.3 30,472 28.8 22.6 25.7
EU 15 5.8 33,754 26.1 19.8 22.9
Germany 1.2 34,812 5.6 5.3 5.5
EU 12 1.5 17,708 2.7 2.8 2.7
Poland 0.6 17,222 1.0 1.2 1.1
United States 4.5 45,640 29.7 36.4 33.1
China 19.7 5,899 5.8 5.2 5.5
India 17.2 2,818 0.7 0.3 0.5
South Africa 0.7 10,117 0.6 1.3 1.0
LDCs 11.7 1,274 0.11 0.04 0.07
Annex I 18.7 30,924 75.8 78.0 76.9
Non-Annex I 81.3 5,096 24.2 22.0 23.1
High Income 15.5 36,488 76.9 77.9 77.4
Middle Income 63.3 6,226 22.9 21.9 22.4
Low Income 21.2 1,599 0.2 0.2 0.2
World 100 9,929 100 100 100
23
24

Countries will be asked to meet different
requirements based upon their historical share or
contribution to the problem and their relative
ability to carry the burden of change. This
precedent is well established in international
law, and there is no other way to do it. Al
Gore (New York Times Op-Ed, 7/1/2007)
24
25
The impacts and costs of climate change An
adaptation debt
  • Developed countries are principally responsible
    for the historical emissions contributing to
    current atmospheric concentrations and to current
    and committed future warming
  • Poor countries and people who live daily with
    rising costs, damages and lost opportunities for
    development
  • These impacts are the direct result of current
    atmospheric concentrations, which have been
    caused predominantly by emissions from developed
    countries
  • Developed countries are responsible for around
    90 of current and committed warming
  • Developed countries are thus responsible for
    compensating developing countries for their
    contribution to the adverse effects of climate
    change
  • Failure to honor payment of financing and
    compensation constitutes an an adaptation debt
    owed by the rich to poor countries, communities
    and people

26
Implications of recent science
  • Recent science suggests IPCC4AR understated
    extent and rate of climate change
  • Emerging science suggests the world may be
    committed to 2.4?C (in the absense of emergency
    efforts to cut emissions and create sinks)
  • Committed warming surpasses likely tipping
    points and risks runaway climate change with
    catastrophic consequences
  • Addressing this challenge requires
  • Much greater efforts at mitigation including
    both rapid emission reductions and creation of
    sinks (e.g. ecosystem restoration)
  • Much greater efforts at adaptation including
    emergency efforts to secure food supplies and
    limit adaptation harms
  • Rich countries and companies historical
    emissions are principally responsible for this
    committed warming
  • Rich countries and corporations may thus have a
    greater climate debt to poor countries,
    communities and people than previously considered

27
Climate and ecological debt
  • Climate debt is part of a larger ecological,
    social and economic debt owed by the rich to the
    poor
  • Many groups are calling for full payment of
    ecological debts, including climate debts

Source WWF Living Planet Report
28
Rich countries propose deepening rather than
honoring their debts
  • Rich countries aim to deepen rather than honor
    their debts
  • They seek to take more than their fair share of
    the Earths remaining atmospheric space without
    compensation
  • They seek to pass on the costs of adapting to
    climate change to developing countries
  • To advance these goals, some countries are
    seeking to alter the climate regime by
  • Ending rather than implementing the Kyoto
    Protocol (hence claims of the post-Kyoto regime
    when they are legally bound to agree a second
    commitment period under the Protocol) and/or
  • Changing rather than implementing the Convention
    (hence calls for a post-2012 regime when the
    Bali Action Plan mandates full, effective and
    sustained implementation of the Convention)
  • A number of countries also intend to use trade
    sanctions to impose new obligations on developing
    countries (e.g. Waxman-Markey), further tilting
    the international trading system against
    development

29
Fair and effective outcomes in Copenhagen
  • Copenhagen must deliver on two distinct
    negotiating mandates
  • A second commitment period for Annex I countries
    under the Kyoto Protocol and
  • Full, effective and sustained implementation of
    the Convention, in accordance with the Bali
    Action Plan
  • There is no legal basis for collapsing these
    mandates or ending the Kyoto Protocol, as
    proposed by some developed countries
  • There is no legal basis for re-opening rather
    than implementing the Climate Convention
  • Repayment of climate debt provides one means for
    ensuring effective emissions reductions for Annex
    I Parties under the Kyoto Protocol, and for
    implementing obligations relating to mitigation,
    adaptation, technology and financing under the
    Convention

30
Implementing the Kyoto Protocol
  • The Kyoto Protocol does not end in 2012
  • Parties are legally bound to agree a second
    commitment period for Annex I countries under the
    Kyoto Protocol commencing in 2012 (see Article
    3.9)
  • In the KP negotiations the Least Developed
    Countries have stated that failure to combat
    climate change will increase poverty and hardship
    in our nations, and increase the debts owed to us
    for excessive emissions by the developed
    countries
  • Four countries -- Bolivia, Malaysia, Paraguay and
    Venezuela -- have formally proposed climate debt
    as the basis for calculating Annex I countries
    responsibilities under the Kyoto Protocol
    (UNFCCC/KP/CMP/2009/12)
  • Sri Lanka has formally supported the four country
    proposal
  • These proposals are reflected in the texts under
    consideration in the AWG-KP

31
Implementing the Climate Convention
  • The Bali Action Plan commits Parties to ensure
    the full, effective and sustained implementation
    of the Convention now, up to and beyond 2012
  • It calls for an agreed outcome and a decision
    to be adopted in Copenhagen (there is no legal
    mandate requiring a post-2012 climate
    agreement)
  • A number of Parties -- including the Least
    Developed Countries and Bolivia -- have formally
    proposed climate debt as a basis for ensuring
    full implementation of the Convention
  • These proposals are reflected in the revised
    negotiating text under consideration in the
    AWG-LCA (e.g. paragraphs 3, 13.4, 14.2 and 14.5)

32
Proposals to repay climate debt
  • These proposals provide a means to ensure a
    balanced outcome to the negotiations in relation
    to mitigation, adaptation, technology and
    financing
  • In summary, Annex I Parties are to take on
    assigned amounts that reflect the full extent
    of their historical climate debt taking into
    account
  • Their responsibility, individually and jointly,
    for current atmospheric concentrations
  • Their historical and current per-capita
    emissions
  • Technological, financial and institutional
    capacities and
  • The share of global emissions required by
    developing countries to meet their social and
    economic development needs, eradicate poverty and
    achieve the right to development
  • The difference between their assigned amounts and
    their actual GHG emissions (e.g. 45 cut by 2020)
    shall be quantified as an increase in emissions
    debt and
  • This debt, in turn, shall provide the basis of
    fulfillment by Annex I Parties of their
    commitments to provide financing, technology and
    compensation to developing countries for
    mitigating and adapting to climate change

33
Proposals to repay climate debt (2)
  • This approach to climate debt links developed
    countries
  • Historical responsibilities/debts
  • Emissions reduction obligations and
  • Obligations for financing and technology transfer
    to developing countries.
  • It recognizes the rights of poor countries,
    communities and people to a fair share of the
    Global Commons
  • It provides a means to link obligations relating
    to mitigation, adaptation, financing and
    technology together as part of an integrated and
    holistic approach
  • It provides a credible basis for ensuring the
    provision of new and additional financial
    resources for adaptation and mitigation
  • It is science-based and based on principles of
    the Convention, and is now reflected in the
    negotiating texts in the AWG-KP (Kyoto Protocol)
    and AWG-LCA (Climate Convention)

34
  • Developed countries should play a leadership role
    by undertaking ambitious nationally appropriate
    mitigation commitments. In these actions, the key
    underlying principle should be aspiring to
    minimize and avoid impacts to the vulnerable
    countries. Failure to combat climate change will
    increase poverty and hardship in our nations, and
    increase the debts owed to us for excessive
    emissions by the developed countries.
  • STATEMENT BY LESOTHO, CHAIR OF THE LDC GROUP, ON
    BEHALF OF LDCS AT JUNE 2009 BONN CLIMATE CHANGE
    TALKS

35
  • We call upon the Parties to the UNFCCC to
    recognize the importance of our Traditional
    Knowledge and practices shared by Indigenous
    Peoples in developing strategies to address
    climate change. To address climate change we also
    call on the UNFCCC to recognize the historical
    and ecological debt of the Annex 1 countries in
    contributing to greenhouse gas emissions. We call
    on these countries to pay this historical debt.
    To address climate change we also call on the
    UNFCCC to recognize the historical and ecological
    debt of the Annex 1 countries in contributing to
    greenhouse gas emissions. We call on these
    countries to pay this historical debt.
  • ANCHORAGE DECLARATION AGREED BY INDIGENOUS
    REPRESENTATIVES FROM THE ARCTIC, NORTH AMERICA,
    ASIA, PACIFIC, LATIN AMERICA, AFRICA, CARIBBEAN
    AND RUSSIA

36
  • By their excessive emissions, this wealthy
    minority has appropriated the majority of the
    Earths atmospheric space, which belongs equally
    to all and should be fairly shared. For their
    disproportionate contribution to the causes of
    climate change denying developing countries
    their fair share of atmospheric space the
    developed countries have run up an emissions
    debt. These excessive emissions, in turn, are
    the principal cause of the current adverse
    effects experienced by developing countries,
    particularly in Africa. For their
    disproportionate contribution to the effects of
    climate change causing rising costs and damage
    in our countries that must now adapt to climate
    change the developed countries have run up an
    adaptation debt. Together the sum of these
    debts emissions debt and adaptation debt
    constitutes the climate debt. Proposals by
    developed countries in the climate negotiations,
    on both mitigation and adaptation, are
    inadequate. They seek to pass on the costs of
    adaptation and mitigation, avoiding their
    responsibility to finance climate change response
    efforts in Africa. They also seek to write-off
    rather than reduce their emissions and continue
    their high per-capita emissions. This would
    deepen their debt and deny atmospheric space to
    the developing countries like ours, which would
    be asked to crowd into a small and shrinking
    remainder. We therefore call on developed
    countries to fully, effectively and immediately
    repay the climate debt they owe to African
    countries.
  • STATEMENT BY PAN AFRICAN CLIMATE JUSTICE ALLIANCE
    (63 NGOS FROM ACROSS AFRICA)

37
  • As the basis of a fair and effective climate
    outcome we therefore call on developed countries
    to acknowledge and repay the full measure of
    their climate debt to developing countries
    commencing in Copenhagen. We demand that they
  • Repay their adaptation debt to developing
    countries by committing to full financing and
    compensation for the adverse effects of climate
    change on all affected countries, groups and
    people
  • Repay their emissions debt to developing
    countries through the deepest possible domestic
    reductions, and by committing to assigned amounts
    of emissions that reflect the full measure of
    their historical and continued excessive
    contributions to climate change and
  • Make available to developing countries the
    financing and technology required to cover the
    additional costs of mitigating and adapting to
    climate change, in accordance with the Climate
    Convention.
  • STATEMENT BY OVER 230 GROUPS INCLUDING
    DEVELOPMENT, ENVIRONMENT, GENDER AND YOUTH
    ORGANIZATIONS, FAITH BASED COMMUNITIES,
    INDIGENOUS PEOPLES AND SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC
    JUSTICE MOVEMENTS IN AFRICA, ASIA, LATIN AMERICA
    AND THE CARIBBEAN, MIDDLE EAST, EUROPE AND NORTH
    AMERICA

38
Final Comments
  • The scientific evidence is a wake-up call.
    Carbon-based growth is no longer an option.
  • A rigorous, binding commitment to North-to-South
    flows of technology and financial assistance is
    critical. Domestic reductions in the North are
    only half of the Norths obligation.
  • The alternative to something like this is a weak
    regime with little chance of preventing
    catastrophic climate change
  • This is about politics, not only about equity and
    justice.

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