Who wants to leave the neighbourhood? The effect on moving wishes of being different from the neighbourhood population

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Who wants to leave the neighbourhood?The effect
on moving wishes of being different from the
neighbourhood population

• Maarten van Ham Peteke Feijten

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Residential mobility studies

• Residential mobility is mainly explained from
  individual and household characteristics
  characteristics of the dwelling
• age, household composition
• educational level, income
• dissatisfaction with the dwelling
• Indications that also the neighbourhood plays a
  role in the decision to move But the
  neighbourhood gets little attention in the
  literature.

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Residential mobility and neighbourhoods

• About 10 of the Netherlands population moves
  every year.
• 75 of the movers leave their neighbourhood
  (postcode area).
• Flows between neighbourhoods are selective (for
  example high income groups leaving certain
  neighbourhoods).
• Insight in the role of the neighbourhood in
  residential mobility is important to understand
  the mechanisms behind segregation and
  neighbourhood deterioration.

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Residential mobility on postcode level
25 km
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The role of the neighbourhood in residential
mobility behaviour

• The neighbourhood can play a role in individual
  moving decisions.
• physical characteristics amount of green, noise,
  air pollution, building density.
• social characteristics (population composition)
  ethnic composition, socio-economic level, age
  structure.
• If people are unsatisfied about the neighbourhood
  or the neighbourhood population, this may trigger
  their desire to leave the neighbourhood.
• In our paper we focus on the role of the
  population composition of neighbourhoods in
  peoples decision to leave the neighbourhood.

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Schellings segregationhypothesis (1971)

• Behaviour at micro level
• People prefer to live among others who are like
  themselves (income, religion, ethnic background).
• Therefore people who belong to a minority in a
  neighbourhood, will be more likely to have a wish
  to leave the neighbourhood than those belonging
  to a majority.
• Effect at macro level
• Increasing (spontaneous) segregation
• Schellings model is purely theoretical first
  empirical test by Clark (1991) for US.

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Research questions

• To what extent and how does the population
  composition of the neighbourhood influence
  individuals wish to leave their neighbourhood?
• Central hypotheses
• People are more likely to have the wish to leave
  their neighbourhood with an increase of the...
• percentage of low income households
• percentage of immigrants
• percentage of rented dwellings
• This mechanism is less strong (or is even
  nullified) for persons who have such a
  characteristic themselves (Schelling).

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Data

• Housing Demand Survey 2002 (WBO)
• Sample 62,144 respondents, 18-80 years old,
  living independently.
• Information on
• Individual background characteristics
• Residential situation and location (4-digit
  postcode)
• Satisfaction with dwelling
• Wish to leave the neighbourhood
• Enriched with neighbourhood characteristics
  (physical and social) at postcode level
• low income households, immigrants, rented
  dwellings
• degree of urbanization (based on address density)

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Variables

• Dependent
• Wish to leave the neighbourhood (no wish0
  wish1).
• 18,7 of the sample has the wish to leave the
  neighbourhood.
• Independent
• Individual and household characteristics
• Dwelling characteristics
• Neighbourhood characteristics
• Interaction terms between individual
  characteristics and neighbourhood characteristics

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Method

• Because some characteristics are on individual
  level and others are on neighbourhood level, we
  have a multilevel structure in the data.
• Logistic multilevel regression with cross-level
  interactions
• level 1 respondent
• level 2 neighbourhood
• In formula
• f(pij) ß0 ß1xij ß2zj ß3xijzj eij u0j

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Multilevel logistic regression of the wish to
leave the neighbourhood (N 62,144)
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Estimated probability to have a moving wish by
ethnic background by percentage of people from
ethnic minorities in the neighbourhood
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Estimated probability to have a moving wish for
renters and homeowners by percentage of rental
dwellings in the neighbourhood
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Conclusion

• Main effect hypothesis is partly confirmed
• People are more likely to have a wish to move
  when there are more rented dwellings and more
  immigrants in the neighbourhood.
• Interaction-effect hypothesis fully confirmed
• Those with a low income, immigrants, and people
  in a rented dwelling are less likely to have the
  wish to leave when there are more low income
  households, immigrants, and rented dwellings in
  the neighbourhood.
• The effects are relatively small...... BUT they
  suggest that segregation comes about partly
  through individual preferences regarding
  population composition in the neighbourhood.

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Discussion

• Why do people want to leave concentration
  neighbourhoods?
• Do they not feel at ease among people who are
  different from themselves? Or do they disapprove
  of people with different characteristics than
  their own?
• Or is it that the presence of (mainly) ethnic
  minorities correlates with other elements in the
  neighbourhood that are not measured in our data?
• Results cast doubt on the success of mixed tenure
  policies and other policies aimed at mixing
  populations at the neighbourhood level. People
  are free to move!
• Present Netherlands housing market is tight and
  people do not have many options. But as the
  housing market relaxes, people will have more
  choice in where to live and this will probably
  result in more segregation.