North%20Korea%20in%20Northeast%20Asia

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North Korea in Northeast Asia

• Lecture Note for Pease Studies II
• November 24, 2004
• Sung Chull Kim
• Hiroshima Peace institute

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Preliminary questions

• What is the origin of North Korean problem, such
  as nuclear weapon development, famine, abduction
  issue, and so one?
• How has the tension between US and Japan, on the
  one hand, and North Korea, on the other, evolved?
• What is the survival strategy of North Korea?
• What would be a solution to the problem?

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North Korea in Northeast Asia (1)
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North Korea in Northeast Asia (2)
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North Korea Profile

• Population 22,697,553 (July 2004 est.)
• Population growth rate 0.98 (2004 est.)
• Life expectancy at birth total population 71.08
  years, male 68.38 years, female 73.92 years
  (2004 est.)
• Natural resources coal, lead, tungsten, zinc,
  graphite, magnesite, iron ore, copper, gold,
  pyrites, salt, fluorspar, hydropower
• Land use arable land 20.76

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Division and the Korean War

• Refer the lecture note of spring semester in 2004

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Politics of Power Succession after the Korean War

• The Korean War (1950-1953) and Kim Il Sungs
  consolidation of power base
• - defeated South-origin communists right after
  the war broke out.
• - expelled Soviet and Chinese factions from the
  party in the mid-1950s.
• Juche ideology as a tool for the monolithic rule
• - Juche means self-reliance or independence.
• Emergence of Kim Jong-il
• - political skills plus preparation of power
  succession for twenty years
• - party secretary in charge of Organization,
  Propaganda and Agitation Affairs in 1973
• - authoritative interpreter of the Juche
  ideology
• - Kim Il Sung idea as Kimilsungism
• - Ten Principles for the Establishment of the
  Monolithic Idea in 1974

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Transfer of throne to Kim Jong-il
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Power Structure in post-Kim Il Sung

• president
• - In the preface of the new constitution of
  1998, Kim Il Sung is named as eternal president
  of North Korea.
• - The office of state president was abolished.
• National Defense Committee (NDC)
• - The NDC became the highest guiding organ of
  the military and the managing organ of the
  military affairs.
• - The Chairman of the NDC, Kim Jong-il, is in
  firm control of all the armed forces and in
  charge of all political economic matters as well.
• status of military
• - Kim, in December 1996, was quoted as saying
  that The partys morale is so degraded that
  party cadres would benefit from getting an
  ideological education from political officers of
  the military.
• - Also militarys role in the economic affairs
  is distinctive, especially in the fields of
  construction and agriculture, as well as in
  military industry.

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US Sanctions on NK

• Threat to US national security -gt Annual renewal
  of the terms of Trading with the Enemy Act
• - the Korean War
• Sponsor or supporter of terrorism -gt Export
  Administration Act of 1979
• - Nov. 29, 1987, bombing of Korean Airline
• - veto to international financial institutions,
  such as World Bank and IMF

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US Sanctions on NK, continue

• Non-market (Marxist-Leninist) state -gt
  Export-Import Bank Act of 1945, Foreign
  Assistance Act of 1961
• - suspension of most-favored-nation (MFN) status
• - now normal trade relations (NTR) status
• Proliferation of WMDs -gt Arms Export Control Act,
  Export Administration Act of 1979, Iran
  Proliferation Act of 2000
• - missile proliferation

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Hardship March

• Sharp decline of economy
• - minus growth since 1991 for ten years
• 1st nuclear crisis
• - Agreed Framework
• Death of Kim Il Sung
• Famine
• Kim Jong-Ils Rise
• - General Secretary of the Korean Workers Party
• - Chairman of the Defense Committee
• Missile test over Japan
• SK-NK summit
• Japan-NK summit
• - Pyongyang Declaration
• - abduction issue
• 2nd nuclear crisis

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Hardship March
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Food Situation in North Korea(FAO/WFP, Special
Report Crop and Food Supply Assessment Mission
to DPR Korea)
unit 1,000 tons

• Shortage(demand)-(productionimportaid)

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North Koreas nuclear development

• 1962 North Korea sets up an atomic energy
  research center with Soviet help.
• 1974 North Korea joins International Atomic
  Energy Agency (IAEA).
• 1975 North Korea produces first plutonium -- a
  few grams.
• 1985 Signs the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty
  (NPT), promising not to produce a bomb and to
  open all nuclear sites to inspection. In return,
  Soviets promise North Korea several large power
  reactors.
• 1989 Begins to process plutonium into
  nuclear-ready form.

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North Koreas nuclear development, continue

• 1991 Joint Declaration of the Denuclearization
  of the Korean peninsula
• 1992 IAEA inspects nuclear facility at Yongbyon
  and concludes there are inconsistencies in North
  Korea's nuclear declaration.
• 1993 Bars inspectors from undeclared sites and
  says that it will drop out of nonproliferation
  treaty. Inspectors declare North Korea has
  violated its obligations to open undeclared
  sites.
• 1994 CIA Director says he believes North Korea
  may have produced one or two nuclear bombs.

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North Koreas nuclear development, continue

• 1994 North Korea begins removing spent fuel from
  the 5 Mwt. reactor, in serious violation of North
  Korea's safeguard agreement with IAEA.
• 1994 Former President Carter visits North Korea
  Kim Il Sung offers to freeze North Korea's
  nuclear program in return for high-level talks
  between the U.S. and North Korea.
• 1994 U.S. and North Korea conclude the Geneva
  Agreed Framework.
• 1995 Korean Peninsula Energy Development
  Organization (KEDO) is established for the
  construction of two light-water nuclear reactors
  in North Korea.

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North Koreas nuclear development, continue

• 1997 Hwang Jang-yop, a North Korean defector,
  says that North Korea has nuclear weapons.
• 1998 North Korea launches a missile across the
  Japanese territory.
• 2000 summit between South and North Koreas,
  Joint Declaration
• 2002 summit between Japan and North Korea,
• Pyongyang Declaration
• 2002 North Korea confesses its nuclear project
  based on highly enriched uranium (HEU) to James
  Kelly, special envoy from the United States.
• 2002 KEDO decides the stop of sending of heavy
  oil to North Korea.
• 2002 North Korea expels IAEA inspection teams.
• 2003 North Korea declares the exit from NPT.

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North Korea and WMD
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Agreed Framework, Oct. 1994

• Cooperation for replacement of DPRK's
  graphite-moderated reactors and related
  facilities with light-water reactor (LWR) power
  plants.1) U.S. undertake to make arrangements
  for the provision to the DPRK of a LWR project
  with a generating capacity of 2,000 MW(e) by
  20032) DPRK freeze graphite-moderated reactors
  and facilities
• Dismantlement of the DPRK's graphite-moderated
  reactors and related facilities, when the LWR
  project is completed

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Agreed Framework, Oct. 1994, continue

• Move toward full normalization of political and
  economic relations1) reduce barriers to trade
  and investment2) open liaison offices in
  Washington and Pyongyang3) upgrade bilateral
  relations to Ambassadorial level
• Implement the North-South Joint Declaration on
  the Denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula
  (1992)
• DPRK remains a party to the Treaty of the
  Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons

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Search for a Solution Six-Party Talks

• Participants North Korea, China, Russia, Japan,
  South Korea, US
• - Chinas active role for moderating especially
  the differences between North Korea and Japan
• Contentious issues North Korea vs. US
• - existence of enriched uranium program
• - US demand of compliance first and negotiation
  later
• - US stance of complete, verifiable,
  irreversible, dismantlement (CVID)
• - NK demand of economic incentive and
  negotiation (KEDOs heavy oil shipment stopped)
• - NK demand of withdrawal of US hostile policy
• - NK skepticism on US strategy of dialogue and
  shaking North Korea
• - security guarantee of Kim Jong-il regime

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Transitions for survival
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Survival efforts 7-1 Reform

• 7-1 reform in 2002
• - The price increased by 30 times in average
  than before the reform measure.
• Increase in rice price 550 times
• - before reform rice procured in 0.08 won from
  farmers -gt sold in 0.8 won to city dwellers
• - after reform procured in 40 won -gt sold in 44
  won
• Increase in transportation fee
• - bus and subway in Pyongyang 0.02 -gt 2 won

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Survival efforts 7-1 Reform, continue

• Wage increase
• - principle of distribution based on
  consequence of labor instead of traditional rule
  of labor contribution based on capability,
  distribution based on need
• - manual and clerical workers 18 times
• - mine workers 25 times
• Elimination of distribution system with the
  exception of food
• Changed characteristics
• - reflection of economic reality no capacity of
  distributing daily necessities as well as food
• - declaration of discarding egalitarianism per se

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Economic situation after 7-1 Reform

• Food situation has been improved since 2002.
• Hyper inflation
• - Price of rice has been increased from 44 won
  in July 2002 to above 200 won in late 2003.
• - It is said that in some areas, the price
  reached to 700-800 won most recently.
• NK spent more hard currency to import food and
  consumer goods since late 2002 than before.

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Economic situation after 7-1 reform, continue

• Managers autonomy has increased, and its
  following responsibility also increased.
• - more responsibility for the salary of
  employees
• - more leeway and flexibility of labor
  assignment
• - changes in managers authority vs. party cadre
• Small and medium business
• - local government- or enterprise-managed
• - in food and light industries and in the
  service sector.

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Economic situation after 7-1 reform, continue

• Traditional farmers market has been
  transformed into general market in big cities.
• - farmers market exchange, sell, and purchase
  agricultural products cultivated in the private
  plot.
• - general market sell, purchase industrial
  products, daily necessities, as well as
  agricultural Products.
• In the general market, not only individuals but
  also state enterprises are allotted selling
  places.
• - They pay fees to the local governments.

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Japan-North Korea
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Living with North Korea Japanese perspective

• Abduction issue
• - sensitivity of the issue because of security
  of specific people
• - more sensitive than nuclear issue, according
  to survey analysis
• - domestic dimension of interfering progress of
  bilateral relations
• Any solution of the issue?
• - The abduction issue shows North Koreas
  inability of managing documentations as well as
  inhumanity.
• - containment by economic sanction immediate
  negative response from NK, without providing any
  clue of its solution
• - engagement no immediate effect, but gradual
  cultivation of systemic transition