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Title: Energy Environment Economy: Motivation for Energy Efficient Manufacturing


1
Energy Environment EconomyMotivation for Energy
Efficient Manufacturing
  • Kelly Kissock Ph.D., P.E.
  • Professor
  • Department of Mechanical and Aerospace
    Engineering
  • Director Building Energy Center
  • University of Dayton, Dayton, Ohio

2
What on Earth Are These?
     
World Energy Use
World Population
3
Converting Heat to Work
  • Since pre-history we knew how to
  • Work
  • Heat
  • Industrial Revolution to
  • Work
  • Heat

4
Newcomens Steam Engine1712
5
Revolutionary Change Transforms
  • Economy textile production increases 150 fold
    and prices drop 90
  • Place cities grow from 5 to 50
  • Family parents leave home to work
  • Geography steam ship and railroad
  • Technology
  • Population

6
Economic Explosion
  • Pre-industrial revolution per capita annual
    income 600
  • Industrial revolution US/Europe income 600 to
    18,000
  • Increases 30x!

7
Energy Revolution Creates Modern World
8
Single Most Important Event in Human History
9
Weve Come a Long Way
  • Newcomens steam engine 0.5
  • Watts steam engine 1
  • Gasoline engines 30
  • Coal Rankine cycles 35
  • Turbines 40
  • Diesel engines 50
  • Combined-cycle turbine/Rankine engines 60

10
But Energy Conversion Largely Unchanged
  • 1. Use hydrocarbon fossil fuels
  • 2. Employ combustion to release heat
  • CH42(O2 3.76 N2)CO22H20(NOxSOx)
  • 3. Convert heat to work via thermal expansion

11
84 Of World Energy From Fossil Fuels
  • In U.S. 86 from non-renewable fossil fuels
  • Source U.S. D.O.E. Annual Energy Review 2005

12
Resource Constraints
M. King Hubbert
13
Hubberts 1956 Prediction of US Oil Peak
14
Actual U.S. Oil Production (Peaks in 1972)
Source www.ab3energy.com/hubbert.html
15
Hubberts 1956 Prediction ofWorld Oil Peak
16
Cambells World Oil Peak
17
ASPO World Oil Peak
18
EIAs World Oil Peak
19
EIA Predictions Questionable
20
World OilNear Peak Production
Peak production 2015 Based on 1,800 BB World
Oil Resources, WRI 1994
21
World Natural GasNear Peak Production
Peak production 2018 Based on 6,044 TCF World
Dry Natural Gas Reserves, Oil and Gas Journal,
IEA 2004
22
World CoalPeak Production 2050?
Peak production 2060 Based on 997,506 MT
World Estimated Recoverable Coal, IEA 2004
23
Consequences of Peak Fuel
  • Rising demand and falling supply rapidly
    increases fuel prices
  • Rising fuel prices reduce expendable income and
    cause recessions
  • Rising fuel prices drain fuel importing
    economies and increase trade deficits
  • Competition for dwindling supply increase
    national security risks
  • Rising fuel prices support undemocratic regimes
    (Russia, Middle East, Venezuela, etc.)

24
Natural Gas Price Trends
Source U.S. Dept. of Energy, Annual Energy
Review 2005, Report No. DOE/EIA-0384(2005)
25
Natural Gas Price Volatility
  • Source Canada National Energy Board,
    http//www.neb.gc.ca/energy/EnergyPricing/HowMarke
    tsWork/NG_e.htm

26
Electricity Price Trends
Source U.S. Dept. of Energy, Annual Energy
Review 2005, Report No. DOE/EIA-0384(2005)
27
Electricity Price Volatility
  • Residential electricity prices will increase 2.6
    in 2007, compared to 2.2 over the last 10 years
  • Those regions with States undergoing market
    restructuring may experience more price
    volatility.  For example, residential prices in
    the East North Central region are projected to
    rise by nearly 6 percent in 2007, compared to the
    last 10-year average of only 1 percent.

Source U.S. Dept. of Energy, Short Term Energy
Outlook, May 2007, http//www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/ste
o/pub/contents.html
28
Environmental Perspective
  • Using energy in todays ways leads
  • to more environmental damage than
  • any other peaceful human activity.
  • The Economist, 1990.

29
95 Of Local/Regional Air Pollution from Fossil
Fuels
30
Global CO2 Concentration
  • Keeling Curve Mauna Loa, Hawaii
  • 2005 Concentration 380 ppm

31
Coincident Global Warming
Hansen, J., Is There Still Time to Avoid
Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference with Global
Climate?, American Geophysical Union, 2005.
32
Molecules with Odd Number Atoms (CO2 CH4) Trap
Heat
Changing Climate, Stephen Schneider, Scientific
American, 10/1989
33
Historical Temperature CO2 Correlation
Changing Climate, Stephen Schneider, Scientific
American, 10/1989
34
Greenhouse Gas Trends
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2001,
Summary for Policymakers
35
Todays Concentrations Off the Chart
Hansen, J., 2005, A slippery slope How much
global warming constitutes dangerous
anthropogenic interference?, Climatic Change,
Vol. 68, No. 3., 2005, Pages 269-279.
36
Result Earth Quickly Warming
  • Hansen et al., Journal Geophysical Research

37
Time Lags Amplify Effects
  • Source Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
    Change, Summary, 2001

38
Warming Fastest at Pole
Changing Climate, Stephen Schneider, Scientific
American, 10/1989
39
Melting Polar Greenland Ice Caps
40
Rising Sea Level Low Elevation Flooding
41
And the List Goes On
  • Drought
  • Severe weather
  • Mass extinctions (30 of species lose range)
  • Accelerating non-linear irreversible process
  • Methane release from thawing perma-frost
  • Lower albedo from decreasing ice cover

42
Debate?
  • Consensus view from
  • Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)
  • Every U.S. scientific body (NAS, AMS, AGU, AAAS)
  • Every G8 National Academy of Science
  • Literature review (Oreskes, Science, Vol. 306,
    2004)
  • All scientific peer-reviewed journals from 1993
    2004 with key words climate change.
  • Found 983 papers
  • NONE disagreed with consensus position

43
Linear Model of Production
Fossil Fuel Resources
Atmosphere
Fossil Fuel Energy
CO2 Pollution
Energy Out
Economy
  • Running Out of Energy Resources While Atmosphere
    Filling Up

44
Ecological Model of Production
Technical
Biological
45
US CO2 Stabilization Scenario (NRDC)
Socolow and Pacala, Scientific American,
September, 2006
46
US CO2 Stabilization Scenario (ASES)
Kutscher, C., Tackling Climate Change in the
US, Solar Today, March, 2007
47
U.S. CO2 Emissions 6 GT/yr Can reduce 1.3 GT/yr
at Negative Cost
  • Miller, P., 2000, Saving Energy It Starts at
    Home, National Geographic, March

48
U.S. CO2 Emissions 6 GT/yr Reduce additional 2.0
GT/yr at lt 50/T
  • Miller, P., 2000, Saving Energy It Starts at
    Home, National Geographic, March

49
Global CO2 Reduction Potential
  • Source The Carbon Productivity Challenge,
    McKinsey Global Institute, http//www.mckinsey.com

50
Energy Efficient Manufacturing Initiatives
  • ISO Standards
  • 9001 Quality
  • 14001 Environment
  • 50001 Energy
  • Requires energy management personnel and
    organizations within a company to determine
    baseline energy use, determine energy efficiency
    targets, identify and implement energy efficiency
    opportunities, measure effectiveness of energy
    efficiency improvements.

51
Government Energy Efficiency Programs
  • U.S. Department of Energy
  • Energy audits
  • Whole plant energy audits by universities for
    mid-sized manufacturers
  • Steam, process heating, compressed air and pump
    energy audits for large manufactures
  • Energy system software and best practice case
    studies
  • U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
  • E3 energy, waste and productivity audits
  • Ohio utilities must improve energy efficiency by
    20 by 2020
  • DPL, Duke, AEP offer rebates on energy efficient
    equipment and retrofits.

52
Energy Engineering Courses at UD
  • MEE 420/569 Energy Efficient Buildings
  • MEE 478/578 Energy Efficient Manufacturing
  • MEE 471/571 Design of Thermal Systems
  • MEE 473/573 Renewable Energy Systems
  • MEE 472 Design for Environment
  • MEE 499/599 Environmental Sustainability

53
Thank you!
54
Making Sense of it All
  • Chicago City Lights, Photo by Jim Richarson,
    http//ngm.nationalgeographic.com/earthpulse/hayde
    n-text
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