Title: Water Resources Management in the Context of Climate Variability and Climate Change
1Water Resources Management in the Context of
Climate Variability and Climate Change
Prof. Pavel Kabat Wageningen University and
Research Center, Netherlands
2Climate changes the water rules ? How water
managers can cope with todays climate
variability and tomorrows climate change
3 4Science UncertaintiesIPCC 2001..
- Climate change will lead to an intensification
of the global hydrological cycle and can have
major impacts on regional water resources,
affecting both ground and surface water supply
for domestic and industrial uses, irrigation,
hydropower generation, navigation, instream
ecosystems and water-based recreation. - The impacts of climate change will depend on the
baseline condition of the water supply system and
the ability of water resource managers to respond
not only to climate change but also to population
growth and changes in demands, technology, and
economic, social and legislative conditions.
5Radiative Forcing
like turning up the sun by 1
2.4 Wm-2
60 of the problem
Carbon dioxide
CH4
N2O
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9The Land and Oceans have warmed
10Trend 0.6 0.2oC.
(CRU, 2002)
11Precipitation patterns have changed
12The frequency, persistence and magnitude of
El-Nino events have increased in the last 20 years
The El-Nino phenomena leads to floods and
droughts throughout the tropics and subtropics
13Land areas are projected to warm more than the
oceans with the greatest warming at high latitudes
Annual mean temperature change, 2071 to 2100
relative to 1990 Global Average in 2085 3.1oC
14Some areas are projected to become wetter, others
drier with an overall increase projected
Annual mean precipitation change 2071 to 2100
Relative to 1990
15Sea Levels have risen
Mean sea level is projected to rise by 0.09 to
0.88m by 2100, but with significant regional
variations l
16Impact of Sea-level Rise on Storm Surge Return
Periods
Hoozemans et al., 1992
17 Consequences
What the water sector can expect from climate
variability (extremes) and climate change
18What is the Impact of Current Climate Variability?
19Recurring Climate EventsEl Niño Southern
Oscillation
Source NOAA
Dry
Wet
Dry
20 Coping Droughts
The capacity for seasonal and long-term
forecasting has increased significantly over the
past decade, and should continue to develop...
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22Depends, P T, Wet -- too simple, imp areas
drier, extremes, withdraw.
23static
24Nature, 2002. Frequency of large floods has
increased substantially during the 20th century.
4 x CO2 in some areas 100-year flood
corresponding to control period can occur every
2-5 years.
Countries affected by destructive flooding since
1990
25 Impacts
Example Iran
26 Impacts
Equilibrium shifts may impede upon the resilience
of terrestrial and (especially) aquatic
ecosystems...
27Climate, Water and Sustainable Development
28Natural Catastrophe trends
29Economic and Insured Losses
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31Implications for Africa
- Historically, large impacts due to floods and
droughts - Impact on food and water security could increase
due to increase in climate variability
32Ability to pay
Source. Freeman and Warner, 2001
33Equity Issues
Source Centre for Research on the Epidemiology
of Disasters, Belgium
34Under-Development of Water Resources ..in the
face of both the population growth and the
depreciating asset base, the maximum per capita
storage of surface water (excluding energy uses)
has declined from 11.4 m3 in 1969 to only 4.3 m3
by 1999.
35 Impacts
Developmental indicators...
Even small changes in the magnitude of extreme
events could have a serious impact on the
development agenda and could derail the
achievement of any number of the Millennium Goals.
The President of Honduras claimed Hurricane Mitch
(1998) destroyed 50 years of progress.
36Disaster Preparedness
- Today, ever-increasing resources are spent for
disaster relief, at the expense of development. - But only development can reduce vulnerabilities,
and the hazards arising from the socio-economic
structure.
Cost Benefit Analysis shows that every 1 spent
on mitigation can typically save 4-10 in the
cost of recovery
37x1
Frequency
Climate variable (e.g. precipitation)
38Adapted (explicitly)
Frequency
P1
Climate variable (e.g. precipitation)
39Coping and adaptationExample of coping with
floods structural measures
40Coping with floods what does the future hold?
Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) is a
prerequisite in order to cope with climate
change and climate variability
41 Coping options
- Adaptation options
- Policy instruments
- Technological and Structural instruments
- Risk Sharing and Spreading
- Change of Use, Activity or Location
- Adaptive Capacity
- Knowledge, skills and Participation
- Mitigation
- Reducing GHG Emissions
- Enhancing Carbon Sinks
42NEWater AquaStressNew approaches to adaptive
water management under uncertainty Integrated EU
Projects20MEuro, 2005-2009 Newater18 MEuro ,
2005-2009 AquastressBoth key focus on
participative research, tool development, and
training through a set of regional case studies,
including Nile Basin
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44Climate changes Spatial Planning
Contents - Approach
BSIK Knowledge project 2004-2009 90 mil. Euro
45The framework
3 ADAPTATION
2 MITIGATION
1 CLIMATE SCENARIOS
- Involved sectors- Agriculture
- Fisheries
- Water Management
- Insurance
- Energy
- Construction
- Nature
- Recreation
- Institutions
- ...
46SOCIO-ECONOMIC WIN-WIN SCENARIO
POLICY
Yearly costs until 2010 (Me)
Potential totalEfficiency impr. ()
Potential Efficiency impr. By this project (Me)