Water Resources Management in the Context of Climate Variability and Climate Change

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Water Resources Management in the Context of
Climate Variability and Climate Change
Prof. Pavel Kabat Wageningen University and
Research Center, Netherlands
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Climate changes the water rules ? How water
managers can cope with todays climate
variability and tomorrows climate change
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• Climate Change

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Science UncertaintiesIPCC 2001..

• Climate change will lead to an intensification
  of the global hydrological cycle and can have
  major impacts on regional water resources,
  affecting both ground and surface water supply
  for domestic and industrial uses, irrigation,
  hydropower generation, navigation, instream
  ecosystems and water-based recreation.
• The impacts of climate change will depend on the
  baseline condition of the water supply system and
  the ability of water resource managers to respond
  not only to climate change but also to population
  growth and changes in demands, technology, and
  economic, social and legislative conditions.

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Radiative Forcing
like turning up the sun by 1
2.4 Wm-2
60 of the problem
Carbon dioxide
CH4
N2O
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The Land and Oceans have warmed
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Trend 0.6 0.2oC.
(CRU, 2002)
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Precipitation patterns have changed
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The frequency, persistence and magnitude of
El-Nino events have increased in the last 20 years
The El-Nino phenomena leads to floods and
droughts throughout the tropics and subtropics
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Land areas are projected to warm more than the
oceans with the greatest warming at high latitudes
Annual mean temperature change, 2071 to 2100
relative to 1990 Global Average in 2085 3.1oC
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Some areas are projected to become wetter, others
drier with an overall increase projected
Annual mean precipitation change 2071 to 2100
Relative to 1990
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Sea Levels have risen
Mean sea level is projected to rise by 0.09 to
0.88m by 2100, but with significant regional
variations l
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Impact of Sea-level Rise on Storm Surge Return
Periods
Hoozemans et al., 1992
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Consequences
What the water sector can expect from climate
variability (extremes) and climate change
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What is the Impact of Current Climate Variability?
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Recurring Climate EventsEl Niño Southern
Oscillation
Source NOAA
Dry
Wet
Dry
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Coping Droughts
The capacity for seasonal and long-term
forecasting has increased significantly over the
past decade, and should continue to develop...
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Depends, P T, Wet -- too simple, imp areas
drier, extremes, withdraw.
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static
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Nature, 2002. Frequency of large floods has
increased substantially during the 20th century.
4 x CO2 in some areas 100-year flood
corresponding to control period can occur every
2-5 years.
Countries affected by destructive flooding since
1990
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Impacts
Example Iran
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Impacts
Equilibrium shifts may impede upon the resilience
of terrestrial and (especially) aquatic
ecosystems...
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Climate, Water and Sustainable Development
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Natural Catastrophe trends
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Economic and Insured Losses
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Implications for Africa

• Historically, large impacts due to floods and
  droughts
• Impact on food and water security could increase
  due to increase in climate variability

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Ability to pay
Source. Freeman and Warner, 2001
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Equity Issues
Source Centre for Research on the Epidemiology
of Disasters, Belgium
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Under-Development of Water Resources ..in the
face of both the population growth and the
depreciating asset base, the maximum per capita
storage of surface water (excluding energy uses)
has declined from 11.4 m3 in 1969 to only 4.3 m3
by 1999.
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Impacts
Developmental indicators...
Even small changes in the magnitude of extreme
events could have a serious impact on the
development agenda and could derail the
achievement of any number of the Millennium Goals.
The President of Honduras claimed Hurricane Mitch
(1998) destroyed 50 years of progress.
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Disaster Preparedness

• Today, ever-increasing resources are spent for
  disaster relief, at the expense of development.
• But only development can reduce vulnerabilities,
  and the hazards arising from the socio-economic
  structure.

Cost Benefit Analysis shows that every 1 spent
on mitigation can typically save 4-10 in the
cost of recovery
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x1
Frequency
Climate variable (e.g. precipitation)
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Adapted (explicitly)
Frequency
P1
Climate variable (e.g. precipitation)
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Coping and adaptationExample of coping with
floods structural measures
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Coping with floods what does the future hold?
Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM) is a
prerequisite in order to cope with climate
change and climate variability
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Coping options

• Adaptation options
• Policy instruments
• Technological and Structural instruments
• Risk Sharing and Spreading
• Change of Use, Activity or Location

• Adaptive Capacity
• Knowledge, skills and Participation

• Mitigation
• Reducing GHG Emissions
• Enhancing Carbon Sinks

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NEWater AquaStressNew approaches to adaptive
water management under uncertainty Integrated EU
Projects20MEuro, 2005-2009 Newater18 MEuro ,
2005-2009 AquastressBoth key focus on
participative research, tool development, and
training through a set of regional case studies,
including Nile Basin
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Climate changes Spatial Planning
Contents - Approach
BSIK Knowledge project 2004-2009 90 mil. Euro
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The framework

3 ADAPTATION
2 MITIGATION
1 CLIMATE SCENARIOS

• Involved sectors- Agriculture
• Fisheries
• Water Management
• Insurance
• Energy
• Construction
• Nature
• Recreation
• Institutions
• ...

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SOCIO-ECONOMIC WIN-WIN SCENARIO
POLICY
Yearly costs until 2010 (Me)
Potential totalEfficiency impr. ()
Potential Efficiency impr. By this project (Me)