India Workshop 11-12 May 2006 Adaptation to Climate Change: the outlook in Brazil Luiz Gylvan Meira Filho Visiting Professor Institute for Advanced Studies University of S - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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India Workshop 11-12 May 2006 Adaptation to Climate Change: the outlook in Brazil Luiz Gylvan Meira Filho Visiting Professor Institute for Advanced Studies University of S

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There is a time lag between emissios of GHGs and the maximum climate change. ... costs associated with impacts of climate change and with adaptation measures are ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: India Workshop 11-12 May 2006 Adaptation to Climate Change: the outlook in Brazil Luiz Gylvan Meira Filho Visiting Professor Institute for Advanced Studies University of S


1
India Workshop11-12 May 2006Adaptation to
Climate Changethe outlook in BrazilLuiz
Gylvan Meira FilhoVisiting ProfessorInstitute
for Advanced StudiesUniversity of São Paulo
2
There is a time lag between emissios of GHGs and
the maximum climate change.This time lag is of
the order of 40-50 years for carbon dioxide and
nitrous oxide, and 20 years for methane.
3
The same is true for emissions reductions
even drastic emissions reductions today will only
decrease climate change 40-50 years from now.It
follows that, in order to decrease the magnitude
of damages caused by climate change, it will be
necessary to adapt to it.
4
Adaptation as one option of response to climate
change.Three options available Inaction, thus
damages Adaptation, when possible Mitigation.
Optimal decision, a combination of these
5
It is essential that our countries define their
national interests.International negotiations
deal fundamentally with the sharing of the burden
for damages, adaptation costs and mitigation
measures.This in addition to capacity building,
sharing of experience, etc.
6
BRAZIL unique circumstances8.5 million
square kilometersless than 200 million
inhabitantslarge tropical forestrelative clean
energy hydro power ethanol biodiesel renewabl
e charcoal
7
Key aspects of adaptation in BrazilIn many
cases adaptation is not possible.Must develop
better forecasts of regional climate change.Must
include climate change in the short-term climate
predictions.Emphasis on adaptation of
agriculture and water resources.
8
Modelling effort at the CPTEC Center for
Weather Prediction and Climate Studies, in
Cachoeira Paulista.Initial training with help of
the Institute for Tropical Meteorology, Pune, in
the 1970s.
9
Simulation of the effect of replacement of
Amazonian forest with pasture in South America,
on the regional climate.Study of the regional
effect of climate change upon precipitation in
the Amazonian basin.
10
As climate changes, there will be a decrease of
precipitation in the eastern portion of the
Brazilian Amazonian forest. The tendency will be
for the edges of the forest to move towards a
savannah type of vegetation.
11
There are no adaptation measures possible in
this case.There will be a loss of biodiversity
associated with the savannization of the borders
of the Amazonian forest.
12
Change in the precipitation regime will change
water availability in the different river
basins.Must be taken into account in order to
optimize planning and operation of
hydroelectrical plants.
13
AgricultureThis is one area in which the
research community is taking interest on climate
change, with a view to developing varieties that
will be better adapted to the changing climate.
14
HealthThe studies on the change of location
of malaria do not consider it possible to take
adaptation measures.
15
Northearn BrazilHighest relative interannual
variability of precipitation in the world.The
result is quase-periodic dought.Population
ill-adapted to present climate.With climate
change, task may become more difficult.
16
Increase of predictive capacity essential to
maximize possibility of adaptation.However,
improved predictions are not sufficient.
17
Very difficult to separate adaptation to
natural climate variability from adaptation to
climate change.Climate are the statistics of
the variables that describe the instantaneus
state of the atmosphere.
18
Rational decision makingEstimates of costs
associated with impacts of climate change and
with adaptation measures are essential.They
must be compared with the costs of
mitigation.The distribution in time of the
costs is also important.
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