Climate Change and Malaysia

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Climate Change and Malaysia
Numerical Weather Prediction Division Malaysian
Meteorological Department
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Global Warming
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Figure 1 Global Averaged Surface Temperature
(IPCC AR4 WG1 Physical Science Basis)

• Twelve of the thirteen years in the period
  (1995-2007) rank among the top 12 warmest years
  in the observation record
• Global temperatures have risen by about
  0.74 ºC since the beginning of the 20th century

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What causes weather climate?
INSOLATION INcoming SOLAR radiATION
Differential heating of the earths surface
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Natural Causes of Climate Variation
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Milankovitch Cycles

• Variation in Internal
• Atmospheric Cycles (El Nino
• Northern Atlantic Oscillation
• Indian Ocean dipole etc)
• Variation in Oceanic
• Circulations
• Volcanic Eruptions

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Anthropogenic Causes of Climate Variation
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Anthropogenic Activities

• Emissions of greenhouse gases aerosols
• Change in land-use
• Deforestation

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(No Transcript)
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Malaysia Present Climate
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WEST PENINSULAR MALAYSIA (ANNUALPRECIPITATION)
LANGKAWI
PETALING JAYA
BUTTERWORTH
SUBANG
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EAST PENINSULAR MALAYSIA (ANNUAL PRECIPITATION)
KOTA BARU
KUANTAN
MERSING
KUALA TRENGGANU
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EAST MALAYSIA (ANNUAL PRECIPITATION)
KOTA KINABALU
KUCHING
SANDAKAN
MIRI
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WEST MALAYSIA (MEAN TEMPERATURE)
BUTTERWORTH
KOTA BARU
PETALING JAYA
KUANTAN
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EAST MALAYSIA (MEAN TEMPERATURE)
KOTA KINABALU
KUCHING
SANDAKAN
MIRI
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1997
1977
1982
1991
1987
1972
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Global Climate Simulations
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• Different Emission Scenarios

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Projected global average temperature changes for
the early and late 21st century relative to the
period 1980 1999, as calculated by multi-model
averages for a low (B1), a medium (A1B) and a
high SRES scenario for the decades 2020-2039
(left) and 2090-2099 (right). (IPCC, 2007)
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Based upon 9 Global Climate Model Ensemble
Projection, Temperature Increase for Peninsular
Malaysia 2.8C East Malaysia
2.6 C
Rainfall Variation () for Malaysia based upon 9
Global Climate Model Ensemble Projection
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Regional Climate Simulations

• Global Circulation Models (GCM) lack regional
  detail that impact assessment on climate change
  require.
• A Regional Climate Model (RCM) adds
  small-scale detailed information of future
  climate change to the large-scale projections of
  a GCM. Coarse resolution information from a GCM
  is used to develop temporally and spatially fine
  scale information.
• In the Malaysian Meteorological Department,
  the PRECIS (Providing Regional Climates for
  Impacts Studies) is being used.

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Orographic Resolution
PRECIS resolution 0.44 x 0.44
HadCM3 resolution 2.5 x 3.75
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PRECIS captures important regional information on
summer monsoon rainfall missing in its parent GCM
simulations
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PRECIS Simulations of Present Climate (1961-1990)
Mean Annual Cycles of SEA Rainfall and Temperature
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MEAN ANNUAL TEMPERATURE
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Simulation of Average Annual Surface Temperature
for Malaysia
using PRECIS

• 5 year running averages used

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MEAN ANNUAL PRECIPITATION
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Simulation of Average Annual Rainfall for
Malaysia using PRECIS

• 5 year running averages used

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Annual Mean Temperature Anomaly Relative to 1990
- 1999
Annual Mean Rainfall Anomaly () Relative to 1990
1999
2020 - 2029
2050 - 2059
2090 - 2099
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Thank You