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Generation and Transmission Modeling Work Group

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We are expanding the options LSEs consider by providing information on more distant resources ... Groups being briefed. January 31 study request to WECC ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Generation and Transmission Modeling Work Group


1
Generation and Transmission Modeling Work Group
2
Outline of Presentation
  • GTMWG tasks and how they fit into the WREZ
    project objectives
  • Model development
  • Model outlines
  • Schedule
  • Connections with ZITA
  • Connections with EL

3
REMEMBER
  • Ultimately, the buyers (load-serving entities)
    determine what transmission gets built and what
    resources get built
  • We dont have a way to force unwilling parties to
    pay for transmission there must be voluntary
    collaboration to build big transmission
  • We are expanding the options LSEs consider by
    providing information on more distant resources
  • Presently, LSEs typically consider nearby
    resources (e.g., distributed generation and
    nearby renewables)

4
Objectives of REZ Modeling Tool
  • Assist resource planners and regulators to
    evaluate the relative attractiveness of
    geographically broad renewable resource options
    at a screening level
  • Estimate delivered cost of both in-state and
    out-of-state RE options from REZs to LSE load
    areas
  • Highlight potential and benefits of collaboration
    between LSEs to build transmission lines
  • Highlight potential for competition for limited
    renewable resources

5
Proposed Tool Outline (under review)
  • Delivered Cost
  • Tool calculates delivered cost of each renewable
    resource type from each REZ to an LSE within a
    load zone
  • Delivered Cost Bus-Bar Cost Interconnection
    Cost Transmission Cost Local Delivery Charges
  • Relative Ranking
  • Tool will provide market value adjustments to the
    delivered cost to determine the relative
    attractiveness of resources
  • Adjusted Delivered Cost Delivered Cost /-
    Market Value Adjustments
  • Potential for Collaboration and Competition
  • Tool highlights resources that are well-ranked
    for multiple load zones
  • Collaboration User can modify default
    assumptions to evaluate benefits of shared lines
  • Competition User can choose which resources to
    include in analysis. A user may decide to
    exclude a resource that they expect to not be
    available due to competition for a limited
    resource (or other reasons)
  • Tool Output
  • Reports including the relative ranking of REZs
    and the underlying data used to generate relative
    ranking (Delivered cost, transmission cost,
    market value adjustments, etc.)
  • Reports will highlight resources that are
    well-ranked for multiple load-zones

6
General Tool Functionality
  • Excel-based tool
  • Tool is provided with default assumptions (e.g.,
    500 kV single circuit transmission from REZ)
  • User can evaluate relative ranking of resources
    to each load zone based on default assumptions
  • Hope is to be able to evaluate 1 REZ to 1 load
    zone, multiple REZs to one load zone, and
    multiple REZs to multiple load zones
  • Tool includes considerable flexibility for user
    to change default assumptions (e.g., generation
    cost, transmission costs)
  • Users can evaluate user-defined what-if
    scenarios
  • User can examine impact of their own view of the
    future

7
Illustration of Configurations
Model will do
We think model will do
Not sure simple model can do
8
Aggregate REZ Resources
Example REZ and load hubs
  • Core data of tool
  • REZ list
  • Bus-bar (generation and collection cost) and
    transmission cost by renewable resource type
  • Primary assumption
  • REZ transmission cost based on new high-voltage
    substation within REZ (centroid)
  • User defined assumptions
  • User can change cost assumptions

9
Load Zone
Arizona Load Zone LSEs are represented within
nearest load zone
  • Each LSE will be represented within a Load Zone
    worksheet (e.g., APS and SRP in Arizona Load
    Zone)
  • On the order of 20 load zones
  • Tool will have empty placeholders for user to
    define non-REZ resources to include in relative
    ranking (e.g., distributed photovoltaics or CCGT
    sited at load)
  • Tool will allow user to select which REZs and
    resource types within REZs to include in analysis

10
Delivered Cost
Tool will calculate total delivered cost from
selected resource types in selected REZs
  • Tool will calculate delivered cost for each
    resource type in each REZ to the load zone
  • Primary Assumptions
  • Distance from REZ centroid point to load zone
    hub
  • Distance will be based on routing via existing
    rights-of-way to the appropriate extent (from GTM
    sub-group)
  • Incremental transmission additions assume no
    existing transfer capability

11
Relative Ranking
Tool will rank resource types and REZs to
highlight most attractive options
  • Tool will determine the relative ranking of
    resource types from each REZ based on the
    delivered cost adjusted for market valuation
    factors
  • Important market value adjustment factors
  • Capacity value
  • Time-of-Use Energy Value
  • Integration costs
  • Externalities (e.g. , carbon taxes if comparing
    to load-based CCGT)
  • More detail on assumptions and methods will be
    provided in a Market Valuation presentation by
    LBNL

12
Comparison to other Load Zones
Similar ranking process will be done for each
load zone on separate worksheets
  • Separate worksheets will be used for each load
    zone
  • The same ranking cost process will be performed
    simultaneously for each load zone

13
Collaboration and Competition
Benefits of collaboration can be modeled by users
in what-if scenarios
  • After determining the well ranked resources for
    different load zones, a user can modify default
    assumptions to determine the benefits of
    collaboration in what-if scenarios
  • For example, a user could model a shared line by
    changing default assumptions for utilization and
    line distance
  • Tool, as proposed, may be able to accommodate
    this type of investigation, but it would require
    significant amount of external analysis.

14
GTMWG Links to ZITA and EL
Renewable Energy Zone
15
Interaction among work groups
Technical Committee
Zone Identification Technical Analysis work group
Environment, Land Use Permitting work group
Generation/ Transmission Modeling work group
Economic assumptions in supply curves
Areas to be excluded and minimum elements an area
must have to be considered
Areas of concern
Mitigation measures and cost
Conceptual transmission plans
Model for LSE evaluation of interest in REZs
Cost information Lands information
16
Connections to ZITA
  • ZITA to GTMWG
  • Model input data on generation (next slide is
    draft list provided to ZITA) in 500 MW blocks
    (with some exceptions)
  • Proposed default value is current conditions
  • User can change assumptions
  • ZITA GTMWG iteration
  • Size of REZs considering collection costs to
    centroid and transmission solutions

17
Data Needs from Zita
  • For each renewable generation type in each zone
    (e.g., wind, geothermal, biomass, CSP)
  • Generation type and technology
  • Resource block size (e.g., 500 MW blocks of
    resource)
  • Expected economic life of generating facilities
    (years)
  • Capital costs (overall capital costs - inclusive
    of construction financing - plus estimated
    interconnection costs) (/kW)
  • Fixed operation and maintenance (/kW-year)
  • Capacity factor () - annual
  • Temporal profile (e.g., hourly profile of
    generation by month12x24 suggest collecting
    most detailed information available, however, as
    analysis of complementarity may require more than
    12x24 profile, and perhaps hourly data)
  • Variable operation and maintenance (/MWh)
  • Fuel cost expenditures (if applicable) (/MWh)
  • Financing assumptions debt/equity, interest,
    term
  • Taxes federal, state, other ()
  • Depreciation rate, term
  • Applicable tax and production incentives

18
Connections to EL
  • For specific REZs whether assumed distance from
    REZ centroid to transmission corridor is other
    than a straight line
  • Any information EL may collect that might be
    useful to WECC and sub-regional planning groups
    when they develop conceptual transmission plans.

19
Next Steps
  • Model development
  • Work through remaining assumptions
  • Begin work on 1 REZ to 1 load zone model test on
    multiple REZs to 1 load zone consider ways to do
    multiple REZs to multiple load zones (likely
    require a different, less transparent model)
  • Iterate with ZITA on zone size and delivery of
    data needed by the model
  • October 7 webinar on model design
  • Presentation of model design to Technical
    Committee Oct 15-16
  • Develop, test and populate model by January
  • Training on model use
  • Engage WECC and sub-regional transmission
    planning groups
  • Groups being briefed
  • January 31 study request to WECC
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