Integrated spatial scenarios on the territorial futures of Europe: Lessons for policy and research

1
Integrated spatial scenarios on the territorial
futures of Europe Lessons for policy and research

• ESPON Seminar
• Evora, 12 November 2007
• Moritz Lennert
• IGEAT ULB
• moritz.lennert_at_ulb.ac.be

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Introduction Reminder of main messages of
scenarios

• Main challenges for Europe's regions
• globalisation
• climate change
• energy
• demography
• Other challenges socio-economic dualisation,
  socio-cultural tensions, congestion, pollution,
  etc, etc
• Some of the challenges are exacerbated at
  regional scale, compared to a EU-wide perspective

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Part I How is policy taking account of these
challenges ?

• Sectoral policies
• Regional policies
• Does policy make a difference ?

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Sectoral policies

• Regional aspects often totally absent...
• Green Paper "Confronting demographic change a
  new solidarity between the generations",
  COM(2005) 94 final)
• (Green Paper  European Strategy for Sustainable,
  Competitive and Secure Energy , COM(2006) 105
  final)
• Promoting Solidarity between the Generations,
  COM(2007) 244 final
• ...but there are recent improvements
•   A regional approach, taking into account local
  circumstances, should be a key element in
  devising a renewable energy policy.  (Renewable
  Energy Road Map. Renewable energies in the 21st
  century building a more sustainable future -
  IMPACT ASSESSMENT, SEC(2006) 1719)
•  The distribution of impacts of climate change
  is likely to be uneven. Some regions in the EU
  will suffer disproportionately.  (Limiting
  Global Climate Change to 2 degrees Celsius. The
  way ahead for 2020 and beyond, COM(2007) 2 final)

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Regional policies step by step

• Community Strategic Guidelines
• challenges not explicitely present
• The Territorial Agenda
• identifies challenges
• but does not offer any innovative responses in
  the policy priorities
• The 4th Cohesion Report challenges clearly
  identified
• Lisbon strategy imposes a too limited framework
  to address these challenges
• Need to deepen the knowledge about the
  territorial dimension of these challenges

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But does policy actually make a difference ?

• Challenges constitute framework within which
  policy can act climate change, energy issues,
  globalisation
• Territorial structures have strong inertia
• But policy can chose to support or to counteract
  some trends
• reinforce the areas with highest potentials
• or
• support areas most lagging behind
•  A new paradigm is emerging where the policy is
  increasingly geared towards resource allocation.
  ... In short, it is a dynamic process of
  empowerment helping overall European economic
  growth and competitiveness.  (D. Hübner, Fourth
  Cohesion Forum, Brussels, 28 September 2007
• ESPON research needs to continue on the possible
  impacts of such a paradigm shift
• ESPON policy scenarios explore this question by
  pushing the issue to the possible extremes

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Possible effects of a paradigm shift ?
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PART II From scenarios to research

• Issues highlighted by scenarios
• Some existing ESPON analyses
• Some open research questions

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Globalisation Issues highlighted by scenarios

• Market liberalisation at all scales
• new segments of the European economy subject to
  internal and external competition
• Dualisation
• stronger territorial concentration of the
  benefits of globalisation increasing number of
  regions negatively affected
• Extra-European competition and FDI
• sensitivity to external mergers risk of
  out-migration of decision centres and high-level
  business functions
• European neighbourhood
• demographic pressure from south and south-east
  economic cooperation/competition and integration
  of economic systems

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Globalisation Research questions

• Selection of existing ESPON analyses
• regional sectoral specificities (3.4.1, 3.4.2)
• insertion into global networks and neighbourhood
  relations (3.4.1)
• MASST model (3.2)
• Lisbon capacities (3.3)
• ITC innovation (1.2.3)
• Selection of open questions
• Identify regional insertion into global economy
  tools for regional accounting
• Analyse links between metropolitan areas and
  periphery
• Identify region's sensitivity to capital mobility
  
• Role of regions in, and impact on regions of,
  neighbourhood policies

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Climate change Issues identified by the scenarios

• Structural impacts
• drought in southern Europe (impacts on the
  economy, the environment and the production of
  hydro-electricity)
• mountain regions dependent upon winter tourism
• potential positive impacts on the northern half
  of Europe (new opportunities for rural areas and
  for winter tourism in the Nordic countries)
• Impacts of natural hazards river valleys,
  coastal areas, forest areas in southern Europe,
  but local risk is probabilistic
• Less prosperous regions have less resources to
  allocate to prevention and mitigation measures

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Climate change Research questions

• Selection of existing ESPON analyses
• hazard analyses (1.3.1)
• Selection of open research questions
• More precise evaluation of regional risks and
  opportunities based on different scenarios
• Impact of drought on economies and landscapes in
  Southern Europe
• Impact on tourism in mountain areas
• Climate change as opportunity for northern
  regions
• Elaboration of more precise risk evaluation tools
• Regional impact of climate change mitigation (CO2
  reduction) policies
• Evaluation of regional potentials for CO2
  reduction

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Energy Issues identified by the scenarios

• Expensive energy vs rare energy
• Evolution of mobility and accessibility
  (substitution through telecom services ?)
• Evolution of settlements (compact cities?)
• Delocalisation of companies towards lower energy
  prices
• Opportunities for regions with renewable energy
  sources and new energy technologies
• Likely positive impacts on the urban environment
  (hydrogen technologies)
• Competition between food and energy production in
  rural areas
• Environmental damages resulting from intensive
  energy-related agriculture and forestry.

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Energy Research questions

• Selection of existing ESPON analyses
• analysis of regional energy structures and needs
  (2.1.4)
• accessibility models (1.2.1, 2.1.1, 3.2)
• information society (1.2.3)
• Selection of open research questions
• analysis of energy dependency of regions
  according to needs (economy, accessibility, etc)
• identification of regional potentials for energy
  savings and renewable energy production
• regional impacts of large-scale biofuel
  production
• impacts of high energy costs on peripheral areas
• analysis of the potentials of ICT to replace
  mobility
• regional impacts of energy scarcity

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Demography Issues identified by the scenarios

• Increasing territorial differentiation of
  generations
• Impacts of population ageing / shrinking on
  regional labour markets
• Impacts of depopulation
• Socio-cultural evolution in large cities

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Demography Research questions

• Selection of existing ESPON analyses
• analysis of different regional demographic
  trajectories (1.1.4)
• regional demographic projections (1.1.4 and 3.2)
• first overview of social issues (1.4.2)
• FUAs (1.1.1 and 1.4.3)
• urban-rural interactions (1.1.2)
• Selection of open research questions
• more precise identification of the driving forces
  of ageing / shrinking regions in different types
  of regions
• analysis of the specific issues related to
  shrinking regions
• data collection for and analysis of access to
  services across Europe
• analysis of specific potentials and issues in
  residential regional economies

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An ESPON researcher's prayer

• Dear Gods of ESPON,
• You know we are your humble servants when it
  comes to calculating indicators for the smallest
  NUTS,
• You know we give you many pages of report for
  little money,
• So please hear our prayers
• Do not overload us with burdens too heavy for
  poor desktop researchers' backs,
• Do not put more questions into the terms of
  reference than there members in the Monitoring
  Commitee,
• Please agree amongst your divine selves and pick
  the most important, the most revelevant questions
  for our needs,
• Please select and focus,
• Amen

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Introduction to workshops

• Objective Elaborate a list of important research
  questions for ESPON
• 3 themes
• Workshop A Regions, resources and environment -
  Climate change and new energy paradigm
• Workshop B Regions and people - Ageing,
  shrinking regions, access to services
• Workshop C Regions and activities -
  Globalisation, accessibility and knowledge
  society
• Method
• Amend list of (sub)challenges identified
• Prioritise these challenges
• Brainstorm on research questions