Mojgan Stegl University of Tuebingen

1
Mojgan Stegl (University of Tuebingen)

• Tall and Shrinking Muslims, Short and Growing
  Europeans The Long-Run Welfare Development
• of the Middle East, 1850-1980 Part I
• Mojgan Stegl and Joerg Baten
• Some Determinants of the height differences
  Part II

2
Anthropometric History versus GDP and Real Wages

• Anthropometric History is a well established
  method to measure biological aspect of standard
  of living
• How did the standard of living develop in the
  Middle East over the past two centuries?
• Did height development follow GDP, or perhaps
  rather real wages
• GDP per capital advantages
• Comprehensive account of purchasing power
• Comparability over time
• GDP per capita disadvantages
• Subsistence farming and production and
  consumption within households
• Not capturing of black markets
• Huge Data requirement for GDP estimation
• Real Wages as standard of living indicator
• better data quality as prices and nominal wages
  were recorded by contemporaries
• but less standardized goods are not included

2
3
Number of height observations by country, birth
decade, and individual versus grouped data
1850-1910

• Notes Grouped data are grey-shaded.
• Source and Abbreviations Table 2.
• Abbreviation EG-Egypt, IQ-Iraq, IR-Iran,
  IS-PS-Israel/Palestine, LB-Lebanon, SY-Syria,
  TR-Turkey, YE-Yemen
• frequent change of borders, hence we use modern
  borders
• primary sources
• anthropological measurements for the birth
  cohorts of the 1850s to the 1910s
• for the recent period 1920-1980 Baten (2006),
  based on Demographic and Health Surveys

3
4
Height by region type and country

• Note Height averages are weighted by the number
  of observations. Only cases with Ngt30 shown.
  Source and Abbreviations Table 2.

4
5
Turkish males 1850-1910

• large sample 28992 observations,
  representatively drawn
• height underestimated here (incl. very old
  young)
• but regional difference still informative.
  West-Centre-diff
• frequent change of borders, hence we use modern
  borders

5
6
Estimation issues

• Weighted Least Square regressions of heights in
  the Middle East
• Notes Robust p-values in parentheses. , ,
  significant at the 0.01 , 0.05 level, 0.10 level
  respectively
• Intercept represents a 20-50 year old male who
  was born in Turkey in 1910
• we estimated with WLS multiple regression
  analysis and controlled for sample composition by
  region and age
• plus robustness check with other classification
  (desert, coast, urban, other agricultural)
• we controlled for region, age, religion,
  migration
• only ages 20-50, heights 120 200 cm, cases 30
  underlying observations
• the desert region variable is positive and
  significant but not very large

7
Heights in the Middle East
8
Heights in Turkey, Iraq, and Iran

• Turkey tallest populations during the 1870s
• Iraq 1910s might be an outlier (not too many
  cases)
• strong nomadic element in central Anatolia and
  Iraqi deserts (but controlling
• downward trend over the following half century
• (Western) Iran is around the ME average (or
  slightly below)

9
Heights in Palestine/Israel, Lebanon and Syria

• Lebanon one of commercial centers
• wealthy mercantile strata
• but only average heights
• demanded high quality food from the surrounding
  countryside
• invested in the silk and later fruit exports
• Palestine high anthropometric values - 1850s -
  1860s

10
Heights in Yemen

• Yemen very low anthropometric values
• high population density
• the economy specialized on spices, coffee and
  other cash crop production
• but conflicts did not allow to sustain
  irrigation systems
• around 1900 many small tribal units
• political situation instable tribal attacks
  against Ottomans (1872), and famines

11
Developments in Egypt

• subsistence to export-oriented economy
• rapid population growth
• reform policy of Muhammad Ali (1805-49) in the
  1820s to 1840s -gt GDP was rising
• modest improvement of educational situation
• but situation of the peasant population did not
  improve in the early 19th C
• heavy burden of taxation
• slight increase in 1860s (afterwards decrease)
• Crimean war boom
• early 1860s the cotton boom

12
The combined picture Middle East vs. Industrial
Countries (ICs)
Sources for 1850-1910 see Table 2 for
1940-1980 Baten (2006), based on Demographic and
Health surveys (DHS) Janghorbani et al. (2007).
The 1920s and 1930s for Middle East are
interpolated.
13
Was the difference to ICs before the 1880s
statistically significant?
Reported is always the coefficient for Middle
East in pooled samples of ME and Germany
(Bavarian prisoners) Source J. Baten (2006), ME
and Italian conscripts and criminals Sources B.
AHearn (2003) Meineke (2008), ME UK Army
Floug, Wachter, Gregory (1990)
14
Was the difference to ICs before the 1880s
statistically significant?
Reported is always the coefficient for Middle
East in pooled samples of ME and Germany
(Bavarian prisoners) Source J. Baten (2006), ME
and Italian conscripts and criminals Sources B.
AHearn (2003) Meineke (2008), ME UK Army
Floug, Wachter, Gregory (1990)
15
GDP per capita in 1990 PPP Dollars

• GDP/c development
• much worse
• situation for the
• Middle East
• already in the
• 19th C
• GDP divergence
• increase as
• well

Source S. Pamuk (2006) Weighted by population
size
16
Real wages Istanbul vs. industrialized countries

• heights and real
• wages provide
• a consistent
• picture
• relatively
• favorable living
• standards in ME
• during the mid-
• 19th century

Sources Istanbul S. Özmucur, S. Pamuk (2002),
Industrial Allen (2001), in grams of silver, but
adjusted for cost of living weighted by
population size
17
Conclusion Part I

• Middle East had better anthropometric values than
  the Industrial Countries before the 1880s
• afterwards, the ICs first reached equal levels,
  and then overtook
• real wages tend confirm this picture (if
  London/Amsterdam , the top 10, are removed
  Middle East fared better)
• GDP per capita was higher in Europe already in
  the 19th century
• explanation Europe suffered from urban penalty
  and non-transportable protein
• During the 1880s-1900s period, the Industrial
  countries started to overtake the Middle East in
  terms of net nutritional status.
• Afterwards, a strong divergence

17
18
Part II Heights and GDP pc 1820-1990 Islamic
World
19
unbalanced random effect Panel Regression

• positive significant correlation between GDP p.c.
  and heights
• negative significant correlation between
  populations density and heights
• Positive significant correlation between literacy
  rate and heights
• Negative but not significant correlation between
  log. cattle p.c.
• negative significant correlation between log
  Sheep p.c.
• Positive significant correlation between log.
  Goats p.c

Standard errors in parentheses, plt0.01,
plt0.05, plt0.1
20
Thank you all for your attention!