Briefing on Flood Situation in the Country

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Briefing onFlood Situation in the Country

• August 05, 2009

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Sequence of Presentation

• Monsoon Season Forecast
• Weather Outlook For The Next One week
• C. Latest River Discharge Position
• D. Present Reservoir Elevation Position
• E. Reservoir Water Storage Position
• Revised SOP for Raised Mangla Dam
• Upto-date Damages

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INDUS RIVER SYSTEM
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INDUS RIVER SYSTEMWATER AVAILABILITY

• WATER SOURCES
• Snowmelt Glacier Melt
• Runoff generated from rainfall
• Annual Flows 144 MAF (178 BCM)
• High Flow Season (Apr. to Sep) 117 MAF (145 BCM)
• 82 of Annual flows
• Low Flow Season (Oct. to Mar) 27 MAF (33 BCM)
• 18 of Annual flows

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A. Monsoon Season Forecast

• Ist End June 2009
• 10
  (above normal)
• 2nd July 04, 2009
• - 10
  (below normal)
• 3rd July 16, 2009
• -30
  (below normal)

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A. Monsoon Season Forecast

• Need For Revision in Seasonal Forecast
• -Rapidly changing met conditions over Pakistan
• -Due to development of El Nino phenomenon in
• the Pacific Ocean
• -El-Nino is the abnormal warming of the Pacific
• Ocean during some of the years
• -Developed very rapidly in June 2009
• -Likely to strengthen in the coming months
• -Likely to continue till next winter

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A. Monsoon Season Forecast

• Likely Impact of El Nino
• -Impact on agriculture output and water
• resources
• -When occurs it disturbs normal weather pattern
• around the globe
• -In Pakistan it generally suppresses the monsoon
• rainfall
• Note Many countries including India have
• revised their seasonal weather forecast

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B. Weather Outlook For The Next One Week
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C. Latest River Flow Position (August 05, 2009)

• River Indus At Inflow
  /Outflow Flood Category
• 
  (In Cusecs)
•   Tarbela Reservoir 257,000 /
  189,000 Normal
•         Kalabagh
  258,000 / 249,000 Normal
•         Chashma Reservoir 250,000 /
  223,000 Normal
•         Taunsa
  222,000 / 194,000 Normal
•         Guddu
  161,000 / 125,000 Normal
  
•         Sukkur
  113,000 / 56,000 Normal
• Kotri
  50,000 / 14,000 Normal
• River Kabul At
•          Warsak
  46,000 Medium Flood (F)
  
• Nowshera
  64,000 Medium Flood (F)
• (Contd. next page)

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C. Latest River Flow Position (August 05, 2009)

• River Jhelum At Inflow / Outflow
  Flood Category
• (In Cusecs)
•          Mangla Reservoir 39,000 /
  15,000 Normal
• Rasul
  8,000 / Nil Normal
• River Chenab At
•        
• Marala
  79,000 / 44,000 Normal
•         Khanki
  42,000 / 34,000 Normal
•         Qadirabad 35,000
  / 13,000 Normal
•         Trimmu 19,000
  / 3,000 Normal
• Panjnad
  14,000 / Nil Normal
• (Contd. next page)

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C. Latest River Flow Position (August 05, 2009)

• River Ravi At Inflow /
  Outflow Flood Category
• 
  (In Cusecs)
•         Jassar
  3,000 Normal
  
•         Shahdra
  16,000 Normal
•         Balloki 38,000 /
  6,000 Normal
• Sidhnai 20,000 /
  5,000 Normal
• River Sutlej At
•          Suleimanki 17,000 /
  2,000 Normal
• Islam 3,000 /
  Nil Normal

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D. Reservoir Elevation Position

• Reservoir M.C.L (ft.) Aug 05, 2009 Aug 05,
  2008
• 
  
• Tarbela 1550.00 1531.00 1519.83
• Bal. Available
  19.00
  (11.17)
• Chashma 649.00 647.20
  646.20
• Bal. Available
  1.80
  (1.00)
• Mangla 1202.00 1197.60
  1185.90
• Bal. Available
  4.40
  (11.70)
• Shall be revised to 1210.00

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E. Reservoir Water Storage Position

• Reservoir Max. Live Storage
  On Live Storage
• Storage
  Aug 05, 2009 Left
• (MAF)
  (MAF) (MAF)
• Tarbela 6.849 5.766 (84.19)
  1.083
• (1550.00 ft.)
• Chashma 0.263
  0.186 (70.72) 0.077
• (649.00 ft.)
• Mangla 4.542
  4.296 (94.58) 0.246
• (1202.00 ft.)
• ----------
  ---------
  ----------
• Total 11.654
  10.248 (87.94) 1.406

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E. Reservoir Water Storage Position

• Reservoir Max. Live Storage
  On Live Storage
• Storage
  Aug 05, 2009 Left
• (MAF)
  (MAF) (MAF)
• Tarbela 6.849 5.766 (84.19)
  1.083
• (1550.00 ft.)
• Chashma 0.263
  0.186 (70.72) 0.077
• (649.00 ft.)
• Mangla 5.072
  4.296 (84.70) 0.776
• (1210.00 ft.)
• ----------
  ---------
  ----------
• Total 12.184
  10. 248 (84.11) 1.936

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F. Revised SOP For Raised Mangla Dam Salient
Features
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(No Transcript)
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Flood Limits
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Categories Of Floods

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Available Information/Data

• Forecasts
• Qualitative Forecast
• Quantitative Forecast
• Real Time Data
• Flood Warning Stations Data
• Weather Radar
• Satellite Imageries

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Schematic Diagram Of River Jhelum Tributaries
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Forecasts

• Qualitative Forecast
• FFD shall provide qualitative forecast
  minimum 24-36 hours in advance of actual
  precipitation indicating the intensity of
  depression in relation to previous historical
  floods. Category of floods shall also be
  indicated.
• Quantitative Forecast
• FFD shall provide Quantitative forecast
  about 12 hours in advance of actual peak
  describing range of peak and expected minimum and
  maximum volume of flood hydrograph.

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FLOOD ROUTING THROUGH MANGLA RESERVOIR
(Category-I Floods 3 to 5 Lacs Cusecs)
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FLOOD ROUTING THROUGH MANGLA RESERVOIR
Category-II Floods 5 to 7 Lacs Cusecs
Continued next page..
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FLOOD ROUTING THROUGH MANGLA RESERVOIR
Category-II Floods 5 to 7 Lacs Cusecs
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FLOOD ROUTING THROUGH MANGLA RESERVOIR
Category-III Floods Above 7 Lacs Cusecs
Continued next page..
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FLOOD ROUTING THROUGH MANGLA RESERVOIR
Category-III Floods Above 7 Lacs Cusecs
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Liaison With Different Organizations
Chief Engineer Mangla.
Superintending Engineer (Hydrology)
WAPDA
Member (Water)
GM (PD)
C.E.(HWM)
C.E. (DSO).
GM (Hydel)
OTHERS
F.F.D.
D.C. Jhelum
D.C. Mirpur
Chairman (FFC)
Pak Army
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Mangla Dam Flood Data Dessimination
D.C. MIRPUR
IRRIGATION DEPARTMENT MANGLA
HYDROLOGY DIRECTORATE MANGLA
POLICE WIRELESS COMMUNICATION MANGLA
PAK ARMY MANGLA
D.C.O. JHLEUM
WAPDA WIRELESS COMMUNICATION MANGLA
WAPDA WIRELESS STATION SUNNY VIEW LAHORE
NATIONAL FLOOD FORECASTING DIVISION LAHORE
TO ALL CIVIL ADMINISTRATION
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(No Transcript)
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• Structural Flood Damages 2009 (Balochistan)
• As reported by PID, Balochistan, damages occurred
  to structures are
• Protection Bund from Imam Ghundi to end of
  Airport
• 40ft of Flood Protection Bund on Lehri River
  alongwith apron has been eroded.
• 22nd Distribution system (Gogi) at Lehri
• Some damages, occurred in Lehri area, have been
  reported however detail of damages is awaited
  from PID, Balochistan.
• Khatoor Flood Irrigation scheme
• 60ft Bhag Flood Protection Bund have reportedly
  damaged.

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Breach incident in Damani Dam in Balochistan

• A breach occurred in Damani Dam due to heavy
  downpour of 88 mm during the night between July
  22 July 23, 2009 in District Barkhan
  Balochistan which resulted into flooding of
  nearby villages causing damages to houses and
  other infrastructure.
• As reported by PID, Balochistan, neither any
  casualty of human life nor that of cattle head
  was reported. Similarly no damage to houses or
  other infrastructure could be ascertained.
  Nevertheless very few irrigated fields/bandits in
  the area were effected/breached due to excessive
  water stored at there.

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Thank You