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Corporate Vugraphs new formatting

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Title: Corporate Vugraphs new formatting


1
The Lockwood Analytic Method for Prediction
(LAMP) 15 January 2002
An Innovative Methodological Approach to the
Problem of Predictive Analysis
2
Briefing Sequence
  • Background of LAMP
  • Philosophical basis for LAMP
  • The 12 Steps of the LAMP Process
  • Limitations of the LAMP
  • Potential Applications for LAMP
  • Conclusions

3
Background of LAMP
  • Developed by Dr. Jonathan Lockwood in 1992 while
    in DCI Exceptional Intelligence Analyst Program
  • Utilized by numerous graduate students in JMIC as
    core methodology in Masters Degree theses
  • Software exists in early prototype only
  • First published in Defense Intelligence Journal
    in Fall 1994

4
Philosophical Basis of LAMP
  • THE FUTURE IS
  • Not Predetermined
  • The Sum Total of All Interactions of Free Will
  • A Dynamic Spectrum of Constantly Changing
    Relative Probabilities

5
The 12 Steps of LAMP
  • Determine the Predictive Issue
  • Specify the Actors Bearing on the Problem
  • Conduct in-depth study of perceptions and
    intentions of each actor
  • Specify courses of action for each actor
  • Determine the major scenarios
  • Calculate the number of alternate futures

6
Linkages Within the LAMP Method
7
The 12 Steps of LAMP (Continued)
  • Do pairwise comparison of alternate futures
  • Rank order the alternate futures
  • Analyze consequences of alternate futures
  • Determine focal events for alternate futures
  • Develop indicators for each focal event
  • Assess the potential for transposition between
    alternate futures

8
The Concept of the Analytic Map
9
Limitations of LAMP
  • Exponential explosion problem with alternate
    futures
  • Analyst can identify most likely future, but
    cannot assign a quantifiable probability of
    occurrence for each future
  • Little allowance for ambiguity

10
Potential Applications for LAMP
  • Indications and Warning
  • Estimative Intelligence
  • Common analytical method for intelligence
  • Computerized analytic tool kit
  • Training
  • Interface between intelligence, academia and
    public policy communities
  • Tactical intelligence (?)

11
Conclusions
  • LAMP does not grant the gift of prophecy
  • LAMP is not an infallible method
  • LAMP does provide a logical and powerful method
    for analyzing the futures many possible paths


12
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