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Title: GEMS_Atmosphere <Global Earth-system Monitoring using Space and in-situ data> in GMES <Global Monitoring for Environment and Security>


1
GEMS_AtmosphereltGlobal Earth-system Monitoring
using Space and in-situ datagtin GMESltGlobal
Monitoring for Environment and Securitygt
  • Anthony Hollingsworth

2
GMES calls in Dec 2002
Topics Dec 2002 Call Instrument Selection
Ocean IP MERSEA
Land IP GEOLAND
Risk Management IP -
Security NoE ?
Architecture SSA HALO GOSIS
3
GMES calls in Nov 2003
Topics November 2003 Call Instrument Selection
Water Resources IP TBD
Atmosphere IP
Risk Management IP
Security IP
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SIXTH FRAMEWORK PROGRAMMEPRIORITY
FP6-2002-Space-1-GMESOcean and Marine
Applications
  •  
  • INTEGRATED PROJECT
  •  
  • Annex I - Description of Work
  •   
  • Project acronym MERSEA IP
  • Project full title Marine EnviRonment and
    Security for the European Area
  • Proposal/Contract no. FP6-502885

10
MERSEA Work Package 4 Forcing Fields
Objectives           carry out necessary RD
activities to determine the optimal way of
deriving forcing fields from Numerical Weather
Prediction outputs (ECMWF analyses and
forecasts) to drive the MERSEA global ocean
model, and validate it through impact studies
using the global ORCA2 mode (task
4.1),           carry out necessary RD
activities to improve ECMWF wind stress and
turbulent heat fluxes fields using relevant
available high resolution satellite observations
(scatterometer and microwave radiometer (task
4.2), implement the near real-time access to
the ECMWF outputs and the first version of the
surface forcing fields production
11
MERSEA WP7 Modelling and Assimilation
  • Objectives
  •  
  •           To perform research and development on
    physical modelling, ecosystem modelling and data
    assimilation as required for the operational
    objectives of MERSEA during the whole life of the
    project.
  •           To provide all the necessary tools
    (physical model codes, biogeochemical model
    codes, data assimilation codes) that are required
    by the MERSEA project to reach its operational
    objectives.
  •           To bring ad hoc scientific innovations
    into the project and to gather all the relevant
    European capabilities in order to make sure that
    operational systems are maintained at the most
    advanced level thus benefit from the progress
    achieved in the research community, during the
    project life-time and beyond.

12
MERSEA TASK 11.4 SF2 Assessment of the impact
of MERSEA-¼ analyses on seasonal forecasts skill
  • Lead ECMWF , Participants ECMWF, MF, INGV.
  • Objectives
  •           To produce and assess seasonal
    forecasts using the lower resolution coupled
    models initialised with the interpolated Mersea-¼
    analyses
  •           Comparisons of seasonal forecasts
    using the lower resolution coupled models
    initialised with other existing analysis systems
  • Description of work
  • Task 11.4.1 The available Mersea-¼ analyses,
    appropriately interpolated using the
    interpolation package developed in Task 11.3.1,
    will be used for initialising the low resolution
    coupled models. The hindcasts will cover the
    period for which Mersea-¼ analyses are available.
    These hindcasts will be assessed similarly to
    what was done by the FP5 DEMETER project and
    results compared to those obtained with the same
    DEMETER project (ECMWF, MF, INGV).

13
HALO Harmonised coordination of the Atmosphere,
Land and Ocean integrated projects of the GMES
backbone
  • The programme for the build-up of the GMES
    pre-operational capabilities includes
  • data delivery processes of observation systems
  • interoperability and interconnection of the data
    processing and delivery systems
  •  organisation and system architecture.
  •   
  • Key elements of the Land and Ocean IPs will be
    dependent on the outputs of the Atmosphere IP.
    The Atmosphere IP will be dependent on outputs of
    the Land and Ocean IPs.
  •  
  • The HALO SSA will prepare the architecture and
    system integration for the interacting part of
    all 3 IPs into the GMES framework, and prepare
    their joint transition to operational status.

14
HALO Harmonised coordination of the Atmosphere,
Land and Ocean integrated projects of the GMES
backbone
  • HALO will optimise the interactions of these
    Segments of the GMES Backbone by formulating
    agreed recommendations to the 3 IPs, and to the
    GMES Steering Group in the areas of
  •  
  • scientific thematic analysis and coordination of
    observational, modelling and data-assimilation
    requirements for the interacting parts of the
    IPs
  •  
  • cross fertilization of scientific thematics
    leading to an improvement of knowledge, and
    definition of the overall scientific
    architecture
  •  
  • identification of shared issues in the areas of
    data policy implementation, data acquisition,
    data sharing and data dissemination, leading to
    proposed candidate solutions analysis of the
    candidate solutions, and 
  • formulation of recommendations for a coordinated
    transition to operations of the interacting part
    of the pre-operational systems developed in the 3
    IPs.

15
HALO will focus on the interactions of
Atmosphere, Land, Ocean IPs
16
HALO Planning Science Requirements, Candidate
Solutions, Recommendations
17
Study Logic for the industrial studies
18
Available Text on the Atmosphere IP
  • Number of interactions influences the composition
    and dynamics of the atmosphere and requires
    efficient monitoring and assessment. Data
    required to perform these activities are
    available from satellites and from in-situ
    measurements (in the atmosphere and on ground).
  • The objective is the integration and validation
    of the available results in order to reach a
    coherent and validated GMES infrastructure
    serving the user community. Preference will be
    given to an Integrated Project.

19
GEMS (ii) Global Earth-system Monitoring
using Space and in-situ data
  • GEMS data assimilation projects
  • Monitor-GREEHOUSE GASES Monitor seasonal
    variations of non-reactive Greenhouse Gases such
    as CO2, CH4, N2O (CO)
  • Monitor-REACTIVE-GASES Monitor ozone and its
    precursors, and sulphate aerosol and its
    precursors.
  • Monitor-AEROSOL Model and assimilate global
    aerosol information
  • Cross-Cutting projects
  • SYSTEM-INTEGRATION Integrate the
    data-assimilation sub- projects in a unified
    pre-operational system
  • RETROSPECTIVE REANALYSIS Validate the
    pre-operational system through observational
    verification of retrospective analyses for the
    "EOS - ENVISAT" epoch 2000-2007, and perhaps for
    the epoch 1947-2007.

20
GEMS-GREEHOUSE GASES
  • Monitor seasonal variations of non-reactive
    Greenhouse Gases such as CO2, CH4, N2O, CO
  • Heritage COCO (FP5)
  • Instruments AIRS, SCIAMACHY, IASI, OCO
  • Data Mgt
  • R/T develop from COCO
  • Modelling develop from COCO
  • Sources / Sinks Current Methods
  • 3D-InVar variational method
  • using CTM very close
    to ECMWF model
  • Data Assim. ECMWF .
  • Validation build on COCO validation team

21
CO2 assimilation -Troposphere
CO2 tropospheric columns are being assimilated
from AIRS infrared observations. Monthly mean
distribution for May 2003
22
CO2 assimilation - Stratosphere
First analysis of stratospheric CO2 shows
Brewer-Dobson type of circulation. Variability is
also much smaller than in troposphere.
23
CO2 flask observation network
24
Monitor-AEROSOL
  • Model and assimilate global aerosol information
  • Heritage -
  • Instruments MERIS, MODIS x 2, MISR, SEAWIFS,
    POLDER
  • Data Mgt tbd
  • R/T
  • Modelling
  • Sources/ Sinks
  • Data Assim.
  • Validation

25
Aerosol modelling and assimilation is an emerging
issue for NWP
  • HIRS channels sensitive to the surface
    temperature, lower tropospheric temperature, and
    moisture are subject to a 0.5 K or more reduction
    in the brightness temperature during heavy dust
    loading conditions. (Weaver, Joiner, Ginoux JGR
    April 2003)
  • Aerosol is the biggest source of error in ECMWF
    clear-sky radiation computations (JJ Morcrette,
    pers.comm.)

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27
GEMS REACTIVE-GASES and Forecast Chemical
Weather
  • Deliverables
  • Determine the magnitude and location of
    stratospheric / tropospheric ozone exchanges
  • Determine the modes and magnitudes of
    intercontinental transport of ozone and other
    constituents.
  • Provide global Chemical Weather Forecasts
    including UV-B forecasts, plus initial and
    boundary conditions for regional Chemical Weather
    Forecasts.
  • Data Assimilation Approach
  • Stream 1 4d Var with simplified chemistry to
    retrieve Ozone (12hr window).
  • Stream 2 Chemical Transport Model uses
    Atmospheric transport from stream 1 to assimilate
    / transport up to 50 species. A priori surface
    flux fields specified from RIVM-EDGAR database
  • Instruments UARS, AIRS, MIPAS, SCIAMACHY,
    GOMOS,
  • SEVIRI, OMI, TES
  • R/T Retrievals
  • Modelling
  • Sources / Sinks
  • Data Assim.
  • Validation

28
Global Monitoring / Forecasting of Reactive
GasesThe Chemical Weather Forecast
  • Current operational ozone monitoring capability
    is a good basis for developing a global
    capability to monitor reactive gases and
    associated aerosols
  • 3.1 Integrate chemical modules with weather
    models, to provide global assimilation
    forecasts of the distributions of
  • ozone and its precursors
  • sulphate aerosol
  • other aerosol
  • The global models can drive regional chemistry
    / air quality models.
  • The cost could be modest at 1 degree resolution

Ozone CO
29
GAW Network of world Stations
30
Current status on GEMS Atmosphere
  • The project is well-targeted
  • The GHG, Aerosol, Integration, Re-analysis
    sub-projects are of manageable and affordable
    scope
  • Many institutes are keen to be involved in the
    reactive gas sub-project, especially on
    validation
  • If we do the essential work to build the overall
    system, and support all interested parties for 3
    years, then the budget will far exceed the
    available funds.
  • We are about to survey all interested parties to
    improve our budget estimates.
  • We may have to restrict participation by
    validation partners to the latter part of the
    project.

31
ENDthank you for your attention!
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