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Strategies for the Future Development of Energy Systems Klaus Illum, Denmark

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Title: Strategies for the Future Development of Energy Systems Klaus Illum, Denmark


1
Strategies for the Future Development ofEnergy
Systems
Klaus Illum, Denmark
  • 1. Exponential growth ad absurdum
  • 2. The mind-set of the Cheap-oil Era
  • Energy as commodity
  • 3. The construction of new energy systems
  • 4. Case study Denmark

2
The nature of exponential growth The same goes
for oil depletion Plenty of oil Little time
10 days
10 years
Water hyacinths
2 p.a.
40 in 54 years
40 in 25 years
3
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4

IEA Reference Scenario. World Energy Outlook 2004
  • Climbing the peak
  • investing trillions of dollars in oil-consuming
    machinery more cars, trucks, airplanes, etc.
  • investing other trillions producing the
    increasing amounts of oil needed to feed this
    machinery.

The higher the ascent, the more lamentable the
day when the peak is reached and the descent
begins.

5
  • The unprecedented economic growth in the affluent
    countries and the concurrent unprecedented
    population growth in the third world since World
    War II is a singular, oil-based event in the
    history of mankind.
  • There is no substitute for oil with unique
    properties similar to those of oil.
  • Thus, it is a theoretical assumption not
    substantiated by any empirical evidence that
    economic growth of the present sort can continue
    worldwide.

6
Man is a prisoner of his own way of thinking and
his own stereotypes of himself.
Stafford Beer in Platform for
Change, 1975
7
The Mind-set of the Cheap-oil Era
  • Energy as a political and economic concept a
    class of commodities
  • US Atomic Energy Commission (1946)
  • Provoked by OPEC
  • The International Energy Agency (1974)
  • The US Department of Energy (1977)
  • The Danish Energy Agency (1976)
  • and concurrently in the other OECD countries

8
The Simplistic Energy Bookkeeping
  • Calorimetric energy values
  • The potential power of one kilogram of oil is
    equalled to the heat from a solar collector
    raising the temperature of 1 cubic metre of water
    by 10 degrees C. and 11 kWh of electric power.
  • This is the key to energy bookkeeping and the
    concept of energy as a class of commodities.

9
  • Its true that
  • 1 litre of water 1 litre of whiskey 1 litre
    of milk makes 3 litres.
  • Likewise
  • Its true that
  • 1 GJ of oil 1 GJ of electric power from a
    nuclear power station 1 GJ of heat from a solar
    collector makes 3 GJ.
  • But it is irrelevant for any practical analysis.

10
From The Economist April 30th 2005
11
It is not about replacing fossil fuels by
renewable energy sources or nuclear power. It is
about the construction of new energy systems more
akin to natural energy systems than the primitive
energy supply systems of the cheap-fossil-fuel
era.
12
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13
Energy is about sustaining states of
thermodynamic disequilibrium Thermal
disequilibrium (temperature differences) Electric
disequlibrium (voltage) Kinetic disequilibrium
(motion) . which does not necessarily entail
energy consumption or a marketplace for
energy.
14
The construction of new energy systems is a task
for engineers, not economists.
  • In every community there is a need for
  • Lighting, TV, computers, etc.
  • Cooking, cool and cold storage of food
  • A healthy and comfortable indoor climate
  • Transportation of people and goods
  • Agricultural production
  • Industrial production facilities
  • The energy system is a construction which fulfils
    these needs.

15
The three subsystems of an energy system
16
In integrated energy systems everything is
connected to everything else. There are no
distinct sectors which constitute particular
energy markets.
17
Thermodynamic efficiency of energy supply is
about control and regulation in complex systems.
18
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19
Case study Denmark A detailed physical
multi-scenario model (SESAM) Geographical 4928
energy districts
200,000 building-groups 70 Cities, towns,
rural areas. 19 building categories. Electrical
appliances Power and cogeneration stations,
etc. Industries Transport Volume by vehicle.
Technology. Windmills, solar absorbers, PV
panels.
20
Example Assume modest increase in fossil fuel
costs Crude oil price gradually increasing from
30 to 80 in the next 25 years (assuming that
the present price is a short-term
irregularity) Natural gas price increasing at the
same rate
21
Assume also unreasonable continued growth in
energy consuming facilities Electrical
appliances (38) Heated area in buildings
(19) Industrial production (30) Transportation
volumes (50)
22
Strategy A
Strategy B
23
Strategy A B
CO2 emission - 20 -
64 Coal consumption - 74 - 95 Oil
consumption 14 - 50 Gas
consumption 37 - 20 Investments
(trillion Euro) Wind, PV, Solar 9.3
21 Supply installations 72
87 Buildings, additional 0 19
24
Since the problems confronting us are not
intrisically insoluble, it behooves us, while
there is still time, to begin a serious
examination of the nature of our cultural
constraints and of the cultural adjustments
necessary to permit us to deal effectively with
the problems rapidly arising.
M.King Hubbert, 1976 Our
window of opportunity is slowly closing.
M.King Hubbert,
1988
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