EU RESEARCH ON CLIMATE CHANGE: Present and Future

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EU RESEARCH ONCLIMATE CHANGEPresent and Future

• Anver Ghazi
• Head, Global Change Unit
• European Commission
• Brussels
• UNFCCC Workshop
• Bonn, 21 June 2004

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THE HISTORICAL PERSPECTIVE From research on
environmental protection to integration of
sustainability into research

• FP3 4 Research on ecosystem functioning and
• climate environment protection
  technologies (e.g. ozone research)
• FP5 Integration of the environmental dimension
  in research more attention to climate,
  water, coastal integration and urban
  dynamics
• FP6 Sustainability to be integrated in all
  areas of research, especially Energy, Transport
  and Agriculture

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FP5 (1999-2002)CLIMATE RESEARCH

• Over 180 research projects funded in areas
  (budget 250 Mill ECU)
• - Climate change prediction
• - Climate dynamics and abrupt changes
• - Interactions between ecosystems and
  carbon/nitrogen cycle
• - Atmospheric composition Change
• - Stratospheric ozone depletion
• - Mitigation and adaptation
• - European contribution to global observation
  systems
• - Natural hazards research
• Contribution to IGBP, WCRP, IHDP and IPCC

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Some pertinent results ofon-going FP5 projects

• EPICA (European Project on Ice Coring in
  Antarctica) Ice coring reached a depth of 3100
  m. Climate history record of past 900000 years
• DEMETER (Development of a European Multi-Model
  Ensemble System for Seasonal to Interannual
  Prediction) Capability demonstrated to predict
  seasonal/interannual climate variations -
  implications for energy, agriculture, tourism and
  health
• CARBOEUROPE (Carbon Cycle in Europe) Carbon
  Absorption Capacity of Europes terrestrial
  biosphere reported to be about 7-12 of the
  annual anthropogenic CO2 emissions

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Some pertinent results ofon-going FP5 projects

• TRADEOFF (Aircraft Emissions Contribution of
  Different Climate Components to Changes in
  Radiative Forcing) Aviation emission impacts on
  cirrus clouds three times larger than that from
  CO2 emissions alone on climate
• AICSEX (Arctic Ice Cover Simulation Experiment)
  The Arctic warming in 1920-1930 and the
  subsequent cooling in 1950-1970 are due to
  natural fluctuations in the climate system.
• PRUDENCE (Prediction of Regional Scenarios and
  Uncertainties for Defining EuropeaN Climate
  change Risks and Effects)

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Global Emissions Control Strategies Project

• Objective
• Develop global (world) scenarios in order to
  analyse the impacts of Post-Kyoto policies under
  flexibility mechanisms for emission reduction,
  including options to reduce emissions resulting
  from land use change and for strengthening carbon
  sinks.

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PRUDENCE

• observations

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PRUDENCE

• Regional Modelling

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ECMWF operational Multi-Model
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ECMWF operational Multi-Model
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The 3 interrelated pillars of Priority
6Sustainable Development, Global Change and
Ecosystems

• Sustainable energy systems (810MEuro) clean
  energy, energy savings, alternative motor fuels,
  fuel cells, energy carriers/transport/storage
• Sustainable surface transport (610MEuro)
  environmentally friendly transport,
  interoperability, safety
• Global change and ecosystems (700MEuro)
  greenhouse gas emissions, water cycle,
  biodiversity and ecosystems, natural disasters,
  land management, climate observation,
  complementary research

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Global Change and Ecosystems

• I. Impact and mechanisms of greenhouse gas
  emissions and atmospheric pollutants on
  climate, ozone depletion and carbon sinks
• II. Water cycle, including soil-related aspects
• III. Biodiversity and ecosystems
• IV. Mechanisms of desertification and natural
  disasters
• V. Strategies for sustainable land management,
  including coastal
• zones, agricultural land and forests
• VI. Operational forecasting and modelling
  including global climatic
• change observation systems
• VII. Complementary research
• VIII. Cross-cutting issue Sustainable
  Development concepts and tools

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Work Programme on Area I

• Impact and mechanisms of greenhouse gas emissions
• and atmospheric pollutants on climate, ozone
  depletion
• and carbon sinks
• Research priorities
• I.1 Carbon and nitrogen cycles sources and sinks
• I.2 Atmospheric pollutants and their regional
  impacts
• I.3 Climate dynamics and variability
• I.4 Prediction of climate change and its impacts
• I.5 Stratospheric ozone and climate interactions
• I.6 Adaptation and mitigation strategies

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1st Call - New Instruments(NoE and IP) in Area I

• I.1 Carbon and nitrogen cycles sources and
  sinks
• Assessment of the European carbon balance
• I.2 Atmospheric pollutants and their regional
  impacts
• Integration of European atmospheric composition
  research
• I.4 Prediction of climatic change and its
  impacts
• Integrated climate change scenarios
• I.5 Stratospheric ozone and climate interactions
• Ozone-climate links
• I.6 Adaptation and mitigation strategies
• Adaptation and mitigation strategies

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New FP6 Climate Research Projects

• Ensemble-based Predictions of Climate Changes and
  their impacts (ENSEMBLES) - IP
• Stratosphere-Climate Links with emphasis on UTLS
  (SCOUT) - IP
• Atmospheric Composition Change A European
  Network (ACCENT) - NOE
• Assessment of European Terrestrial Carbon Balance
  (CARBOEUROPE) - IP

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2nd Call - New Instruments(NoE and IP) in Indent
I

• I.1 Carbon and nitrogen cycles sources and
  sinks
• Assessment of marine carbon sources and sinks
• I.2 Atmospheric pollutants and their regional
  impacts
• Atmospheric pollutants and climate forcing
• I.3 Climate dynamics and variability
• Hot spots in the earth system
• Coupled climate system (STREPS)
• Novel palaeoreconstruction methods (STREPS)
• I.5 Stratospheric ozone and climate interactions
• Aviation and surface transport impacts

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Work Programme on Area VI(2nd Call)

• Operational forecasting and modelling including
  global climatic change observation systems
• VI.1 Development of observing and forecasting
• systems
• Earth system observations (Network of
  Excellence)
• Co-operative projects on climate observations
• (STREPs)

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2nd Call for Proposals Selected IP

• CARBOOCEAN Marine Carbon Sources and Sinks
  Assessment
• AMMA African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis
• QUANTIFY Quantifying the Climate Impact of
  Global and European Transport Systems

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International Cooperation

• US-EU Joint meeting on Climate Change Science and
  Technology Research, Washington D.C., February
  5-6, 2003
• EU-Russia Workshop on Polar Research, Brussels,
  26-27 June 2003
• EU- Japan Symposium on Climate Research
• - Tokyo, 3-5 March 1999
• - Brussels, 13-14 March 2003
• EC Global Change Research International
  Partnership (ESSP), Brussels, 6-7 May 2004

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Earth Observation Summit EU ContributionJuly
31, 2003, Washington D.C.

• Summit declaration
• Coordinated Earth-Observation system or systems
• EO-Summit III, 4th Quarter 2004 in Europe to
  discuss 10-year Implementation Plan
• Reference to Joburg and Evian Summits
• Earth Observation Summit III, February 17, 2005,
  Brussels

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Earth Observation Summit EU ContributionJuly
31, 2003, Washington D.C.

• Ad hoc Group on Earth-Observation (GEO)
• Co-chair Dr. A. Mitsos, Director-General,
  Research DG, EC
• GEO II meeting, 28-29 November 2003, Baveno,
  Italy
• Participation in GEO- Sub groups and the GEO
  Secretariat
• Earth Observation Partnership Conference, 16
  July, Brussels
• GEO V meeting, November 2004, Canada

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GMES
Global Monitoring of Environment and Security
Climate Change
Noise
Industrial Risks
Urban
Forests
Health
Floods
Agro-environment
Water
Air
Coastal Zones
Fires
Nature Biodiversity
Soils
Monitoring
Topography
Air
Soil
Water
Habitats
Socio-Economic
Land-Use
Hazards/Risks
Meteo and climate data
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GLOBAL CHANGE AND ECOSYSTEMS

• Specific Support Actions
• SECOND CALL
• Actions such as the European Network for Research
  and Global Change (ENRICH)
• Actions for associated candidate countries
• European contribution to climate related polar
  research (IPY)
• Consolidation and impact assessment of results
  achieved in EU research projects relating to
  regional and urban sustainability aspects

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3rd Call for Proposals (16 June 2004)

• Climate research topics
• Nitrogen cycle and its interaction with C-cycle
  (IP)
• Ocean-atmosphere-chemistry interaction (STREP)
• Adaptation and mitigation strategies (IP)
• The past climate and its dynamics (IP)
• Climate observations/contribution to GEO

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THIRD CALL FOR PROPOSALSJune 16, 2004

• Earth System Observations (Integrated Project)
• Enhance coordinated efforts at data analysis and
  fill gaps in regional observing systems
• Interfaces, interoperability, integration and
  linkages between observing systems
• Improvement of monitoring technologies and
  standards
• Identification of a set of geo-observational
  products
• Observations for detection and documentation of
  climate change, including extreme events (e.g.
  ENSO)
• Provide contribution to the Group on Earth
  Observation (GEO) and Global Climate Observing
  System (GCOS)
• (Deadline October 26, 2004)

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THIRD CALL FOR PROPOSALSJune 16, 2004

• Specific Support Actions
• Enhancing co-operation between Europe and the
  developing countries within the context of global
  earth observation systems (GEO)
• (Deadline October 26, 2004)

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3rd call deadline26 October 2004 (1st stage)
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Earth System Science
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Information

• To build on current EU Research www.cordis.lu
• Information on FP6 europa.eu.int/comm/research/nf
  p.html
• FP6 Instruments
• europa.eu.int/comm/research/nfp/networks-ip.html