The saturation threshold of public opinion: Are aggressive media campaigns always effective

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The saturation threshold of public opinion Are
aggressive media campaigns always effective?
International Workshop on Challenges and Visions
in the Social Sciences ZURICH, 19 August 2008
Floriana Gargiulo, ISI Foundation Torino
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PUBLIC OPINION FORMATION

• BASIC MODEL NO EXTERNAL INFLUENCE
• MEDIA CAMPAIGNS INFLUENCE CHOICES

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PUBLIC OPINION FORMATION WITHOUT MEDIA In
opinion debating, in cultural trends
Peoples primary fear is to be different and
isolated
NEUTRALITY
SUPPORT APOSITION
Radicals, heretics, outsiders
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COMMUNICATION FRAMEWORK
WITH WHOM DO PEOPLE INTERACT?
SOCIAL NETWORK TOPOLGY
DEPEND ON OPINION!
HOW DO PEOPLE INTERACT?
SOCIAL INFLUENCE ACTION
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BEHAVIOR DEPENDS ON OPINIONS
NO prejudice in choosing contacts
NEUTRALS
More tolerance easier to be convinced
Self-segregation or internity to society?
SOCIAL IDENTITY
Less tolerance mantain viewpoint
RADICALS
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NETWORK CONSTRUCTIONRadicals prefer similars
(opinion dependent homophily)
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Segregation
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SOCIAL INFLUENCE RULES Radicals are less
tolerant and more convinced
Opinion dependent TOLERANCE
Radicals
Neutral

• Interact if

• Change opinion

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PARAMETERS OF THE SYSTEM
NETWORK STRUCTURE CONTROLS THE LEVEL OF
SEGREGATION
?
SOCIAL INFLUECE RULES REPRESENT THE
CONSISTENCY OF THE RADICALS
?
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CONVERGENCETYPES
PHASE TRANSITION
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PHASE TRANSITION
ORDER PARAMTER
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PHASE TRANSITION
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PHASE TRANSITION
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PUBLIC OPINION FORMATION WITH MEDIA
NEUTRALS
MEDIA support a position, with different
possible intnsity
RADICALS
MEDIA OPINION
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DIRECT MEDIA INFLUENCE
The BIG AGENT
Interacts with all the agents
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INTERACTION WITH THE BIG AGENT
EACH AGENT

• Interact if

• Change opinion

STRENGTH OF MEDIA CAMPAIGN
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STRONG MEDIA INFLUENCE
LOW MEDIA INFLUENCE
NO MEDIA INFLUENCE
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BASIC MODELWhen Do radical minorities have
influence?
CONCLUSIONS
WHICH RESULTS FROM SOCIOLOGY?
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Reversing the Asch Experiment

• Six subjects constituted the majority.
• One confederate was the minority.
• Subjects were asked to view a set of slides and
  state their color. All slides were actually blue
  but varied in intensity.
• Minority consistently said that the blue slides
  were green.

• Control condition not exposed to the minority
  only said green twiceless than 1 of the
  responses.
• Among those exposed to minority view almost 10
  of the total responses were green and 32 of the
  subjects reported seeing green at least once.
• Evidence for minority influence.

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Minority Influence

• To be influential a minority should be CONSISTENT
  (MOSCOVICI THEORY)
• FROM OTHER EXPERIMENTS A minority is influential
  if it is not a double minority.
• INTEGRATION IN THE SOCIETY.

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MEDIA INFLUENCEWhen media campaigns are more
influential?
CONCLUSIONS
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REFERENCES

• CAN EXTREMISM GUARANTEE PLURALISM?
• (ArXiv 0803.3879, To appare on JASSS)
• F.G., A.Mazzoni
• CONVERGENCE SCENARIONS in an OPINION DEPENDENT
  COMMUNICATION FRAMEWORK
• (In preparation)
• F.G., S.Lottini, J.J. Ramasco
• THE SATURATION THRESHOLD OF PUBLIC OPINION are
  aggressive media campaigns always effective?
• (ArXiv 0803.3937, To appare on the proceedings
  of ESSA2008 Conference)
• F.G., S.Lottini, A.Mazzoni