Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Implications for Agriculture in the AsiaPacific Region

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Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation
Implications for Agriculture in the Asia-Pacific
Region

Andrew Ash Interim Director CSIRO Climate
Adaptation Flagship
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Climate change is occurring and is due to human
activities
From IPCC, 2007 Summary for Poicymakers. In
Climate Change 2007 The Physical Science Basis.
Contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth
Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel
on Climate Change Solomon, S., D. Qin, M.
Manning, Z. Chen, M. Marquis, K.B. Averyt,
M.Tignor and H.L. Miller (eds.). Cambridge
University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and
New York, NY, USA.
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We are currently tracking at the very high end of
emission scenarios and temperature projections
Rahmstorf et al.
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Climate change is projected to continue15-model
average changes in temperature by 2030, relative
to 1990
Suppiah et al (in prep)
Low CO2 emission scenario
High CO2 emission scenario
Temperature change (C)
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Projections of Future Changes in Climate
Precipitation increases very likely in high
latitudes Decreases likely in most subtropical
land regions
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Summary of Projected Climate Changes

• Temperature to increase 3oC by 2050 and 5oC by
  2070 over land areas
• Lower increases in temperature in maritime
  environments
• Precipitation increases in high latitudes
  (temperate) but a drying in mid-latitudes
  (sub-tropics) over Asia
• Equatorial tropical zone uncertain but little
  mean change expected
• No increase in cyclone frequency but intensity
  could increase by 10-20
• Accelerated melting of glaciers 65 of Chinas
  glaciers will not exist by 2050 with current and
  projected warming trends
• Sea level rise modest in IPCC projections (c.
  50cm) but estimates dont include significant ice
  melt

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Vulnerability to extreme events
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Vulnerability to sea level rise
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Sectoral vulnerability
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Impacts on agriculture

• Four main climate related drivers on agriculture
• Elevated carbon dioxide
• Rainfall and associated water resource
  availability
• Temperature both direct and indirect through
  evaporation
• Extreme weather events (wind, flood damage)
• These interact to affect agricultural
  productivity, quality, pests and diseases.

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Impacts on agriculture and food security

• Benefits of elevated CO2 lost as temperatures
  increase
• Crop productivity is projected to increase
  slightly at mid to high latitudes for local
  warmings of 1-3o C, then decrease for greater
  warming
• Crop productivity is projected to decrease for
  local warmings of 1-2o C at lower latitudes, e.g.
  tropics, which would increase risk of hunger.
  Decreases in revenue up to 25
• Monsoon more variable and increased damage from
  cyclones
• Agricultural irrigation demand in sub-tropical
  semi-arid zones (lower precipitation, higher
  evaporation) likely to be 10 per degree of
  warming
• Northward shift of agricultural zones in Asia
  (single, double, tri-planting)
• Commercial timber productivity is projected to
  rise modestly
• Likely impacts on fisheries but outcomes are
  uncertain

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Adapting to Climate Change

• Adaptation involves both the actions of adjusting
  practices, processes and capital in response to
  the actuality or threat of climate change as well
  as changes in the decision environment such as
  social and institutional structures.
• Adaptation helps to moderate potential damages,
  to take advantage of opportunities, or to cope
  with the consequences of climate change.
• Mitigation of climate change refers to those
  response strategies that reduce the sources of
  greenhouse gases or enhance their sinks, to
  subsequently reduce the probability of reaching a
  given level of climate change

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Adapting to climate change
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Adaptation in agriculture

• Tropical Asia
• Adjust cropping calendar and crop rotation to
  deal with climatic variability and extremes
• Develop and promote use of high-yielding
  varieties and sustainable technological
  applications
• Semi-arid and arid Asia
• Change in agriculture system (introduction of
  humidity-preserving technologies, application of
  advanced agro-technical measures, and the
  introduction of new frost resistant, low water
  use and drought-resistant high-yielding
  varieties)
• Reconstruction of existing irrigation system
  (introduction of sprinkling and drip irrigation)

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Conclusion Winners and Losers

• Between agricultural industries
• Between regions
• Impacts are on economic, environmental and
  social
• components of the system
• Degree of impact will depend on adaptation