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Title: Cosmoclimatology: A Possible Paradigm Shift in Our Understanding of the Primary Drivers of Climate Change


1
Cosmoclimatology A Possible Paradigm Shift in
Our Understanding of the Primary Drivers of
Climate Change
Prof. Tim Patterson, Ph.D. Department of Earth
Sciences Carleton University
2
The Only Constant About ClimateIs Change
Medieval Warm Episode
Little Ice Age
3
The Holocene Interglacial
The Only Constant About ClimateIs Change
  • Holocene maximum (Hypsithermal / Optimum)
    temperature reached ca 5,000 - 6,000 yrs BP
  • Three cool intervals characterize Holocene.

Little Ice Age
Iron Age Cold Event
Climate Optimum
8200 yr BP Cold Event
6-7C
4
The Ice Age Glaciers Come and Go
  • During last interglacial (131-114 kyr BP)
  • Eemian/Sangamon (Isotope Stage 5e).
  • 3 C warmer with Hippopotamuses inhabiting Thames
    river.
  • West Antarctic ice sheet had melted.
  • Sea level was 2 m higher.

5
The Ice Age Glaciers Come and Go
  • More than 33 glacials followed by
    interglacials have occurred during current Ice
    House World Phase

6
The Only Constant About ClimateIs Change
  • Earth's climate has undergone dramatic swings.
  • Earth generally considerably warmer today.

7
NE Pacific Climate and OceanographicResearch
Coastal Transitional Domain (CTD)
Coastal Upwelling Domain (CUD)
California
Canadian Foundation For Climate and
Atmospheric Sciences (CFCAS)
Ware Thomson, 2000, J. Climate, 13 3209-3220.
8
Effingham Inlet Vancouver Island
9
Conductivity Temperature Depth (CTD) Rosette
Effingham Inlet
Patterson et al. 2000. J. Foram. Res., 30
321-335
10
NE PacificClimate and OceanographyMost
influenced by Aleutian Low North Pacific High
Ware Thomson, 2000, J. Climate, 13 3209-3220.
11
Cold Miserable
NE PacificClimate and OceanographyJet Stream
is planetary wave which influences AL and NPH
Warm and Mild
Warm and Mild
Cold Miserable
Warm and Mild
Warm and Mild
Ware Thomson, 2000, J. Climate, 13 3209-3220.
12
Effingham Inlet Annually deposited laminations
linked to changing climate conditions.
Chang et al. 2003. Palaios, 18 477-494
13
Effingham Inlet Freeze Core TUL99B04
Year X-ray
1993
  • Chronology constrained by
  • varve counting
  • major 1946 quake
  • 137Cs and 210Pb dating
  • Annual diatom sampling

1946
Chang 2004 Carleton U. Ph.D. Thesis
14
Effingham Inlet Freeze Core TUL99B04
Climate Diatom Productivity
Wavelet Analysis
Shorter Time
Spectral Analysis
Longer Time
Time series analysis shows correlation with 11
year sunspot cycle.
Chang et al. 2003. Palaios, 18 477-494 Chang
2004 Carleton U. Ph.D. Thesis.
15
Effingham Inlet Climate Record Piston Core
TUL99B03
Correlation With Many Different Solar Cycles
Shorter Time
  • 11 yr Schwabe Cycle
  • 75-90 yr Gleissberg Cycle
  • 200-500 yr Suess Cycle
  • 1100-1500 yr Bond Cycle

Longer Time
3500 y BP
4085 y BP
4745 y BP
1858 y BP
2980 y BP
Sediment Gray-Scale Values Morlet Wavelet
Analysis (TUL99B03)
75-90 yr Gleissberg solar cycle fades in and out.
Patterson et al. 2004. Sedimentary Geology, 172
67-84.
16
Effingham Inlet Northern Anchovy - Pacific
Herring Population Trends Cycles
3,500 yBP phase/ frequency shift evident in both
herring and anchovy data Well-documented
Gleissberg Cycle ( 75-90 yrs) occurs frequently
for long periods of time.
3500 yBP
Piston Core TUL99B03
Patterson et al. 2004 Palaeontologia Electronica
7, 22 p. Patterson et al. 2005 Marine
Micropaleontology 55 183-204
17
Sunspot Cycles and Climate Change
Solar cycles average 11 years and relate to total
energy output of sun.
Cycle 23
Cycle 24
Solar Cycles 23 24 through March 2006
http//www.nasa.gov/vision/universe/solarsystem/so
lar_cycle_graphics.html
18
Sunspot Cycles and Climate Change
Total daily solar energy received is 1360
W/m2 Suns output varies by 0.1 (1.4 W/m2)
through 11 year solar cycle. Insufficient on own
to cause significant climate variability
observed 0.6-0.8C warming since end of Little
Ice Age.
11 Year Schwabe Sunspot Cycle
Climate Change Amplifier Required!!
Fröhlich and Lean, 2000. Geophys. Res. Let. 25
4377-4380
19
Clouds as Climate Change Amplifiers
  • Cloud Climate forcing result of opposing effects
  • heating by clouds (positive forcing)
  • cooling by clouds (negative forcing)

Clouds have overall cooling effect
http//earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Library/GlobalClo
uds/cloudiness2.html
20
Galactic Cosmic Rays Climate
  • Cosmic rays are high energy particles
  • pieces of atoms,
  • neutrons,
  • protons etc.
  • that originate in galactic supernova.

Whispy blue lines (energic x-ray emissions) are
galactic cosmic rays in Cassiopeia A supernova
remnant.
Svensmark 2007 A G, v. 48, p. 1.18-1.24.
21
Cosmic Rays Continually Bombard Solar System
Solar Wind
Cosmic Rays
Carslaw et al., 2002 Science 298
1732-1737 Veizer, J., 2005 Geoscience Canada 32
13-30 Svensmark et al. 2006 Proc. Royal Soc. Ser.
A.
22
Climate Change Amplifier
Correlation between sunspot cycle, galactic
cosmic rays, and global cloudiness.
1.7 variation in low cloud formation between
solar maximum and minimum. Equals 1.3 W/m2 in
surface warming (e.g. gt 85 of IPCC estimate for
effect of all CO2 since beginning of industrial
revolution 1.4 W/m2).
Carslaw et al., 2002. Science 298
1732-1737 Svensmark 2007 A G, v. 48, p.
1.18-1.24.
23
Climate Change Amplifiers
Cosmic rays have catalytic effect on nucleation
of cloud droplets.
Correlation experimentally demonstrated Nov.
2006.
H2O
Aerosols (cm-3)
H2SO4 concentration (107 cm-3)
H2SO4
Carslaw et al., 2002. Science 298
1732-1737 Svensmark et al. 2006 Proc. Royal Soc.
Ser. A.
(t) hours
24
A Celestial Climate Driver
Sunspot Cycle
Solar Energy Flux
Galactic Cosmic Rays
Cloud Formation
Atmospheric Water Cycle (Clouds)
Shaviv Veizer 2003. GSA Today 134-9 Veizer, J.
2005 Geoscience Canada, 32 13-30 Svensmark et
al. 2006 Proc. Royal Soc. Ser. A.

25
A Celestial Climate Driver
  • 15 variation in cosmic ray intensity across
    sunspot cycle causes 1.7 (1.3 W/m2) variation in
    low cloud formation.
  • Cosmic ray intensity varies by factor of 3-4
    (gt5 W/m2 impact) on decadal to millennial scale.
  • 75-90 yr Gleissberg Cycle
  • 200-500 yr Suess Cycle
  • 1100-1500 yr Bond Cycle

Carslaw et al., 2002 Science 298 1732-1737
26
Additional Solar Climate Effects
  • 0.4 increase in solar shortwave UV
    radiation under solar maximum conditions.
  • Influences
  • Ozone concentration
  • Radiative heating
  • Zonal circulation

Ozone Layer
Hameed Lee 2005 GRL 32, L23817
27
Additional Solar Climate Effects
Increased rate of penetration of circulation
anomalies from stratosphere to troposphere under
solar maximum conditions. Influences
planetary waves (e.g. jet stream)
550 km
80 km
50 km
12 km
Hameed Lee 2005 GRL 32, L23817
28
Additional Solar Climate Effects
Tropopause
Increased rate of penetration of circulation
anomalies from stratosphere to troposphere under
solar maximum conditions.
Polar Jet Stream
Subtropical Jet Stream
Polar Jet Stream
Subtropical Jet Stream
Hameed Lee 2005 GRL 32, L23817
29
Meanwhile, Back in the NE Pacific
Correlation between sunspot cycle and center
of actions (COA) of Aleutian Low and North
Pacific High
Polar Jet
AL
NPH
AL COA migrates 500 km EW NPH COA migrates 700
km NS
Subtropical Jet
Hameed Lee 2003 AGU 84, SH11E-03
30
Effingham Climate Diatom Production
Teleconnection
Sunspot Cycle Celestial / Solar Modulation
Hameed Lee 2003 AGU 84, SH11E-03
31
Effingham Inlet High Resolution Climate Record
High Sun Activity
106valves/gm
AL Dominated (Low Sun)
Total Diatoms
3550 yBP
Low Sun Activity
Diatom Rich Laminae Thickness
62 year annual climate record from 4400 y BP.
Significant climate variation over short
Interval.
Depth in Core (cm)
Resting Spores
Terriginous Laminae Thickness
NPH Dominated (High Sun)
LaminaeThickness (mm)
Chang and Patterson, 2005, Palaeogeography,
Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology, 226 72-92.
32
Effingham Inlet Record Maunder Minimum Analog?
GC
GC
GC
75-90 Gleissberg Cycle Superimposed on longer
solar cycles.
The Hunters in the Snow (January, 1565) Pieter
Bruegel the Elder.
33
Cycles in Tree-Ring Widths for Kola Peninsula
Gleissberg Cycle
Schwabe Cycle
Hale Cycle
Tree Ring Width
Cycles in tree-ring widths for Kola Peninsula.
Raspopov et al 2004. Palaeogeography,
Palaeoclimatology, Palaeoecology 209 127-139
1850
1750
1950
1550
1650
Years
34
Solar Variability and the Nile
18 Aug 2000 High Water
28 Apr 2000 Low Water
Nile River (AD 622-1470)
Low Water Anomalies
High Water Anomalies
NASA Press Release 19.03.2007 Ruzmaikin et al
2006 J. Geophys Res. 111 D21114
35
Nile River Flow Solar Cycles (AD 622-1470)
Solar Variability and the Nile
Schwabe
Hale
Gleissberg
Lake Tana
Suess
High Water
Low Water
Lake Victoria
NASA Press Release 19.03.2007 Ruzmaikin et al
2006 J. Geophys Res. 111 D21114
36
Galactic Cosmic Rays Regional Climate Time
Series
Global Teleconnections
Perry, 2007. Advances in Space Research,
DOI10.1016/j.asr.2007.02.079
37
Galactic Cosmic Rays Mississippi River Flow
Saskatchewan
Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation (AMO)
Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)
34-Year Lag Time
Mississippi River Flow
Total Solar Irradiance
Perry, 2007. Advances in Space Research,
DOI10.1016/j.asr.2007.02.079
38
Sun More Active Now Than In gt 8000 Years
High Solar Activity
100
Sunspot Number
50
0
10000
8000
6000
4000
2000
0
Years Before Present
Solanki, et al. 2004. Nature 431 1084-1087
39
Solar Cycle 25 To Be Weakest in Centuries
40 year circuits
2007
The Sun's Great Conveyor Belt has slowed to a
record-low crawl, which has important
repercussions for future solar activity. Normally
1 m/s since 19th century. Now 0.75m/s in N and
0.35 m/s in S.
NASA (physorg.com/preview66581392.html)
40
Solar Cycle 25 To Be Weakest in 200 Years
Should be of concern to agricultural sector. No
one is farming north of us!
NASA (physorg.com/preview66581392.html) Agricultur
e Canada
41
Adaptation Is Critical Strategy
Social Unrest
Malnutrition Disease
Famine
P. Bruegel - 1565 - Massacre of the Innocents
Steckel 2004. Social Science History 28
World Pop. (Billions) 1800 0.98 2007
6.5 2030 8.3
www.un.org
42
What About Greenhouse Gases and Climate Change?
  • Atmospheric greenhouse gases comprise less than
    0.1 of the air.
  • They are necessary gases to maintain an equitable
    climate on Earth.

43
1997-98 El Niño
  • H2O is principal greenhouse gas (98).
  • Water Vapor
  • Water Vapor
  • Water Vapor
  • Water Vapor
  • CO2
  • Etc. Etc.

Satellite Data
Changes in proportion of H2O in atmosphere
significantly impacts global temperature.
Veizer, J. 2005 Geoscience Canada, 32 13-30
44
But What About CO2 and Climate Change?
  • Within last 300 years atmospheric CO2
    concentrations have risen 85 ppm to around 360
    ppm at present (30).
  • Most of the increase is due to fossil fuel
    burning and deforestation.

Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii
Mauna Loa Observatory Hawaii
45
The Carbon Cycle
Includes Fossil Fuel Emissions 5.5
(0.5) Gt C/yr Land Use Changes. 1.6
(0.7) Gt C/yr
Ocean sink 2.0(0.8) Gt C/yr Unaccounted
for sink 1.8(1.2) Gt C/yr
Yearly atmospheric increase 3.3 Gt
C/yr
46
Causes of Climate Change CO2 Geologic Record


  • IPCC Climate Change Model
  • In GCM models temperature increase due to
    positive water vapor feedback Coupled with
    parameterized clouds.

47
CO2 in Geological Record
  • CO2 in atmosphere has varied significantly over
    geologic time.
  • No correlation between CO2 and global temperature
    through geologic time.

Shaviv Veizer 2003. GSA Today 134-9
48
CO2 in Geological Record
  • During past 400,000 years temp. rose from
    glacial values 800 years before CO2 atmospheric
    concentration increased.

Petit, J.R., et al 1999. Nature 399
429-436. Caillon, N., et al.  2003. Science 299
1728-1731.
49
Causes of Climate Change Evapo-Transpiration
Photosynthesis plays critical role in climate
regulation
6CO2 12H2O Sunlight 6O2 C6H12O6
6H2O
50
H2O is Principal Greenhouse Gas
  • Water vapor limiting factor in plant
    transpiration.
  • 1000 molecules of H2O for plants to absorb one
    molecule of CO2
  • Available water, relative to amount of
    atmospheric CO2,. is 2501, much less than
    demand of plants.
  • Global terrestrial ecosystem is in state of water
    deficiency.

Lee Veizer, 2003. Global Biogeochemical Cycles
17 10.1029/2002GB001984
51
More water vapor in atmosphere when warmer
permits more CO2 to be absorbed by plants
resulting in self-regulating system.
1998 El Niño
Doubling of CO2 could raise temperatures by 1C
Lower limit of climate model predictions.
Veizer, J. 2005 Geoscience Canada, 32 13-30
52
Conclusions
  • Natural cyclic celestial phenomena
  • A principal driver of climate.
  • Profoundly influences biological processes.

The Only Constant About Climate is
Change Adaptation is Critical Strategy
Significant climatic variation can occur at
decadal scale and has done so through geologic
time.
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