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POPULATION CHANGE IN NEW BRUNSWICK

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POPULATION GROWTH FOR NEW BRUNSWICK, 1991 TO 2005 ... Current New Brunswick population is greatly affected by current age structure ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: POPULATION CHANGE IN NEW BRUNSWICK


1
POPULATION CHANGE IN NEW BRUNSWICK
  • Barry Edmonston
  • Population Resource Group
  • University of Victoria

2
IMMIGRATION FLOWS
  • About 250,000 annual immigrants to Canada
  • Most settle in three large metropolitan areas
  • Rapidity, size, and concentration of the in-flow
  • Relatively few immigrants in other places,
    especially smaller towns and rural areas
  • Nevertheless, immigrants can have large effects
    for smaller populations and there are recent
    program to encourage settlement in new
    destinations

3
INTERPROVINCIAL MIGRATION
  • Interprovincial migration is large about 500,000
    people migrate annually, and more than 2 million
    persons change their province of residence over a
    five-year period
  • For Atlantic provinces, these flows are usually
    larger than international migration
  • In recent years, large flows into Alberta,
    British Columbia, and Ontario

4
REPERCUSSIONS OF LOW FERTILITY
  • Because of low childbearing levels, migration
    has become the major demographic force affecting
    local population growth
  • Communities and provinces will experience
    population decreases in the absence of
    counterbalancing in-migration
  • Understandable that municipalities and provinces
    are interested in programs to reduce
    out-migration and to promote in-migration

5
TODAYS PRESENTATION
  • Components of population change in New Brunswick
  • Alternative population futures for New Brunswick
  • Recent migration flows in New Brunswick
  • New immigrant destinations in Canada

6
UNPEELING THE POPULATION ONION
  • What factors affect population change in New
    Brunswick?
  • Lets examine births, death, international
    migration, and interprovincial migration trends
    for the past fifteen years
  • After looking at annual components of change,
    lets look at the relative effects on long-term
    population growth

7
POPULATION GROWTH FOR NEW BRUNSWICK, 1991 TO 2005
8
ANNUAL NATURAL INCREASE FOR NEW BRUNSWICK, 1991
TO 2005
9
ANNUAL NET MIGRATION FOR NEW BRUNSWICK, 1991 TO
2005
10
ANNUAL CHANGE FOR NEW BRUNSWICK, 1991 TO 2005
11
ALTERNATIVE FUTURES FOR NEW BRUNSWICKS POPULATION
  • It is hard to see the future when we are in the
    midst of a changing population
  • Current New Brunswick population is greatly
    affected by current age structure and the age
    distribution of migrants arriving and leaving
  • A useful model is to, first, imagine what New
    Brunswicks population would be with
    replacement-level fertility and no net migration

12
BASIC COMPONENTS OF POPULATION CHANGE FOR NEW
BRUNSWICK, 2005
  • Population is 752,000 and slowly decreasing
  • Births6,880 (with TFR1.4 children)
  • Deaths6,561
  • So, annual natural increase is 300, but will
    decrease steadily in future years and staying
    negative as long as below replacement-level
    fertility prevails

13
MIGRATION COMPONENTS FOR NEW BRUNSWICK, 2005
  • Immigrants1,330
  • Emigrants-300
  • So, net immigration is 1,030
  • In-migrants from other provinces10,950
  • Out-migrants to other provinces12,600
  • So, net interprovincial migration is -1,650
  • And, overall net migration is -650

14
COMPARISON OF CURRENT CHANGES FOR LONG-TERM
POPULATION FUTURE
  • If there were replacement-level fertility (about
    10,200 births instead of current 6,900), New
    Brunswicks population would stabilize at
    702,000, or about 50,000 few people than in 2005
  • How much does current fertility and current
    migration affect this long-term population level
    of 702,000?

15
CONTRIBUTION OF BIRTHS AND MIGRATION TO LONG-TERM
POPULATION LEVEL OF 702,000
  • Current births
    -9,100
  • International Migration, Immigration 2,100
  • Emigration
    -300
  • Domestic Migration, In-Migration 15,100
  • Out-Migration
    -17,800
  • Overall effect of Migration
    -900
  • This tells us that long-term population is
    declining by -10,000 (-9,100 and -900)
    each year current birth and migration levels
    continue

16
FEMALE AGE DISTRIBUTION FOR NEW BRUNSWICK
17
DEMOGRAPHIC OPTIONS ARE LIMITED
  • In the context of current demographic changes,
    the basic options are narrow increase births by
    48 to 10,200 per year or increase in-migration
    by 60 to about 20,000 per year
  • The current changes and options have important
    effects on New Brunswicks future age
    distribution as well
  • Can fertility or migration be affected
    (practically, effectively, at low cost)?

18
WHO COMES IMMIGRANT NUMBERS
  • In recent years, the annual number of immigrant
    arrivals in the Atlantic Provinces has varied
    between 2,800 and 5,000
  • The largest share of immigrants have settled in
    Nova Scotia
  • In order to compare provinces, it is useful to
    calculate the number of immigrant arrivals
    relative to population size

19
IMMIGRANT ARRIVAL RATES FOR CANADA, 2002
20
MIGRATION IN THE ATLANTIC PROVINCES
  • Trends for 1996 to 2001 for (i) Canada-born
    residents (ii) resident immigrants who were in
    Canada in 1996 and (iii) immigrant arrivals who
    arrived in Canada between 1996 and 2001
  • We look at five groups (i) children and youth
    (ii) post-secondary students (iii) non-working
    adults (iv) working adults and (v) retirees

21
NATIVITY OF MIGRANTS
  • Useful to examine three groups
  • Canada-born residents who move interprovincially
  • Resident immigrants who were in Canada five years
    ago and move interprovincially
  • Immigrants arrivals during the past five years
    and who make their initial provincial settlement
    (they might move later, of course)

22
MIGRANT TYPES
  • Migrants move for different reasons, with many
    moving primarily for employment.
  • Consider five types
  • Children less than 18 years
  • Post-secondary students, 18 to 25 years and
    attending school full-time
  • Non-working adults, 18 to 64 years and not
    working
  • Working adults, 18 years and working
  • Retirees, 65 years and not working

23
MIGRANTS IN THE ATLANTIC PROVINCES 1996-2001
24
NATIVITY VARIATONS FOR NEW BRUNSWICK, 1996-2001
25
TYPES OF MIGRANTS FOR NEW BRUNSWICK, 1996-2001
26
CANADA-BORN MIGRANTS FOR NEW BRUNSWICK, 1996-2001
27
RESIDENT IMMIGRANTS FOR NEW BRUNSWICK, 1996-2001
28
IMMIGRANT ARRIVALS FOR NEW BRUNSWICK, 1996-2001
29
BROADER CONTEXT FOR MIGRATION
  • Immigrants constitute almost one-fifth of the
    Canadian population but are less common in small
    towns and rural areas
  • There has been a continued out-migration of
    younger adults from smaller towns and rural areas
    across Canada
  • Provinces with more people in smaller towns and
    rural areas are more likely to experience
    out-migration

30
THEORIES ABOUT WHERE MIGRANTS SETTLE
  • Urbanization is worldwide a defining aspect of
    migration is that it is often from rural to urban
    areas
  • Many factors influence choice of settlement
    destinations, including economic, social, and
    cultural factors
  • Two types of settlement processes persistence of
    established locations and emergence of new
    locations for migrants

31
PERSISTENCE OF ESTABLISHED LOCATIONS
  • Over time, migrants develop social networks that
    provide relationships for movement
  • Migrants from a particular ethnic background
    develop ethnic-based resources
  • Local communities respond to migrant flows in
    ways that assist the continued arrival of
    newcomers
  • Once migration is established, continued
    migration usually persists for established
    migrant groups

32
NEW LOCATIONS FOR MIGRANTS
  • New locations challenge the persistence
    perspectivewhy do they arise?
  • New or unusually rapid employment growth
  • New employment sectors that recruit workers
  • Centralization of employment, such as
    meatpacking, in areas with limited workers
  • Sponsorship or deliberate recruitment of newcomers

33
IMMIGRANT SETTLEMENT AND RESETTLEMENT
  • Migration is closely tied to local economic
    growth and employment opportunities
  • Whether economic development or population growth
    comes first is a debatable point
  • However, a communitys success in generating
    employment growth will ultimately determine the
    effect on migration for both Canada-born and
    immigrants

34
CANADAS IMMIGRANT DESTINATIONS, 2002
35
TOP TEN SMALL TOWNS RECEIVING IMMIGRANTS
36
IMMIGRATION TO SMALL TOWNS
  • 7 communities have strong employment growth some
    in only one industry
  • Remaining 3 communities have diversified, growing
    employment
  • Manitoba nominee program is important
  • Several of the communities have immigrant
    recruitment programs and work hard to attract
    newcomers

37
CONCLUDING COMMENTS
  • Low fertilility in New Brunswick poses population
    challenges for next decade
  • Immigrant arrivals in small towns suggests that
    new destinations for immigrants can be developed
  • Employment, community programs, and provincial
    immigration selection policies can create new
    immigration destinations
  • Chicken or the egg jobs and migrants

38
THATS ALL FOLKS!
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