Tying Europe together

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Tying Europe together long-term effects on
green electricity production in the Nordic
countries from cross-border trade

• Anna Krook Riekkola,
• Ingrid Nyström and Erik Ahlgren

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Questions

• How will future investments in new elec-tricity
  production in the Nordic countries change if the
  electricity trade with Germany and Poland
  increase?
• Will it affect the share of green electricity?
• How shall this trade be described in
  MARKAL_Nordic?

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Short-term perspective

• Wind Driven by weather
• Hydro Driven by electricity-demand
• Biomass Driven by heat-demand
• Solar Driven by weather

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Demand for additional

• Reserve capacity within the same grid-area
• Instruments to control electricity-demand
• Transmission capacity to other grid-areas with
  available el production capacity

• Reserve capacity within the same grid-area
• Instruments to control electricity-demand
• Transmission capacity to other grid-areas with
  available el production capacity

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Electricity production 1999
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Average Elspot Price during Day-Time
Germany Sweden .
Average Elspot Price during Night-Time
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Hourly Share of Yearly Demand - Sweden
Hourly Share of Yearly Demand - Germany
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Method - Model

• MARKAL model
• Bottom-up
• Energy-economic optimization model
• Linear programming
• Cost minimizing
• Demand-driven

• MARKAL_Nordic
• Time horizon up to 2050
• Focus on grid-distributed energy
• Electricity, gas and district heating
• Electricity trade between the countries

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• Model Development
• Different ways of describing trade
• Case studies
• Different transmission capacity between
  Denmark/Sweden and Germany/Poland
• Different price levels in Germany/Poland
• Different price profiles in Germany/Poland

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Electricity production in the Nordic countries
with existing capacity to Germany/Poland
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Import to the Nordic countries() and Export from
the Nordic countries (-)
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Differences in Yearly Electricity production
High transmission capacity compared to Existing
More prod in case High cap compared with
Existing cap
? Less prod in case High cap compared with
Existing cap
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Differences in Yearly Electricity production
Export is defined to not need reserve capacity
compared Export defined to need reserve capacity
More prod when export not need reserve cap
compared when it needs reserve cap
- Less prod when export not need reserve cap
compared when it needs reserve cap
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Conclusions

• When modeling the Nordic electricity system it
  does matter how cross-border trade with
  surrounding countries is described.
• By increasing the transmission lines and make
  shore that the market conditions are good,
  installed production capacity can decrease
  greatly.
• Increasing transmission capacity between the
  Nordic countries and Germany/Poland gives an
  earlier expansion of wind power.
• Acknowledgement to
• The Swedish National Energy Agency (STEM)
• YSSP 2002, Patrik Söderholm and Leonardo Barreto

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