The AIDS Epidemic

1
The AIDS Epidemic

• What does it mean for the children of Sub-Saharan
  Africa?

2
Illuminating the Problem
3
Illuminating the Problem

• 24.7 million new cases in 2006
• 2.5 million children living with HIV in 2005
• By 2010 an estimated 25 million children are
  expected to have lost one or both parents to
  AIDS.
• (Source globalhealthreporting.org, UNAIDS)

4
The Question

• HIV/AIDS prevalence continues to increase in
  Sub-Saharan Africa, while purchased inputs
  decrease.
• Young the number of current HIV cases indicates
  the imminent death of 5 million people in the
  next decade.
• How does the prevalence of HIV/AIDS affect the
  quality of citizens produced?

5
Relevant Literature

• Young (2005) The HIV Scenario
• Andrews, Skinner and Zuma (2006) The most common
  unmet needs of orphans and at risk children-
  education, food, medical care and clothes

6
Relevant Literature

• The AIDS epidemic is a humanitarian disaster of
  millennial proportionsIt is not, however, an
  economic disaster. (Young, 2005)
• There is such a high concentration of AIDS
  orphans that communities can no longer afford to
  support them. (Landman, 2002)

7
The Model
8
The Model

• Quality of Children ßeducationßHIV prevalence
  ßsanitation ßclean water ßdeath rate ßlife
  expectancy
• In other words The quality of children produced
  is a function of all inputs purchased by parents.

9
Results
10
Results

• Aggregate Data
• Primary Completion Death Rate (1.19) (3.17)
• Primary Completion Life Expectancy (-.94)
• (-6.25)
• Primary Completion HIV Prevalence (.75)

11
The End!

• Questions? Comments? Suggestions?