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Improvements to GFDN Planned for Operational Implementation in 2008

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Temperatures at 75 m. NCODA SSTs ... AVERAGE TRACK SKILL. AVERAGE INTENSITY SKILL ... INITIAL TEMPERATURES AT THE 75 METER DEPTH. 72H FORECASTED SSTs ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Improvements to GFDN Planned for Operational Implementation in 2008


1
  • Improvements to GFDN Planned for Operational
    Implementation in 2008
  • Morris Bender, Timothy Marchok (GFDL)
  • Isaac Ginis, Biju Thomas, Richard Yablonsky
    (URI)
  • Carey Dickerman and Roger Stocker (FNMOC)

2
LAST MAJOR GFDN UPGRADE WAS IN 2003 !!!THIS HAS
RESULTED IN STEADY DECREASE IN MODEL RELIABILITY
COMPARED TO THE WEATHER SERVICES VERSION OF THE
GFDL MODEL
4 YEAR AVERAGE INTENSITY SKILL
4 YEAR AVERAGE TRACK SKILL
GFDN
GFDN
GFDL
GFDL
3
SUMMARY OF 2008 GFDN MODEL UPGRADES
  • GFDN model Physics and Resolution will be
    consistent with NCEPs GFDL Model
  • Addition of Third Mesh (Doubling of the
    Innermost Resolution to 1/12 degree)
  • Upgrade with NCEPs Ferrier Micro-physics
  • (Replaces simplified large-scale condensation)
  • Dissipative Heating Effect Added
  • Improved Surface Momentum Fluxes Derived from
    Wave Model

4
CURRENT GFDL COUPLED TO PRINCETON OCEAN MODEL
(POM) SINCE 2001CURRENT GFDN MODEL IS STILL
UNCOUPLED !!
  • NEW GFDN MODEL WILL BE COUPLED TO AN OCEAN MODEL
    IN ALL WORLD BASINS
  • Coupled to 3d version of POM model in Atlantic
  • (Identical to current version operational in
    GFDL)
  • Coupled to 1d Version of POM in all Other Ocean
    Basins (e.g.,Epac, Wpac, Indian Ocean, South
    Pacific)
  • (Current GFDL coupled to 1d version of POM in
    Eastern and Central Pacific)
  • Improved Loop Current Initialization in the
    Atlantic
  • (Will also be made operational in GFDL and HWRF
    in 2008)
  • Ocean to be initialized by the Navy Coupled Ocean
    Data Assimilation (NCODA) model on a daily basis.

5
Improved Detail with High Resolution NCODA Ocean
Data Set
NOGAPS SSTs
NCODA SSTs
NCODA DATA
CLIMATOLOGY
Temperatures at 75 m
Temperatures at 75 m
6
IMPROVED TRACK AND INTENSITY SKILL AT ALL TIME
LEVELS FOR SELECTED WPAC CASES (2005-2007)
AVERAGE INTENSITY SKILL
AVERAGE TRACK SKILL
7
Removal of Severe West Bias in Tropical Storm
Wukong (August 2006)
1 OLD GFDN 2 NEW GFDN
1 OLD GFDN 2 NEW GFDN
8
Modest Improvement for Typhoon Cimaron (October
2006)
1 OLD GFDN 2 NEW GFDN
1 OLD GFDN 2 NEW GFDN
9
Mixed Result for Typhoon NESAT (June 2005)
1 OLD GFDN 2 NEW GFDN
1 OLD GFDN 2 NEW GFDN
10
IMPROVED INITIALIZATION OF LOOP CURRENT OCEAN
EDDIES HURRICANE KATRINA (INITIAL
TIME 1200 UTC 26 AUGUST
INITIAL TEMPERATURES AT THE 75
METER DEPTH
72H FORECASTED SSTs
11
IMPROVED INTENSITY PREDICTION FOR KATRINA WITH
BETTER INITIALIZATION OF LOOP CURRENT AND OCEAN
EDDIES
CENTRAL PRESSURE (hPa)
MAXIMUM SURFACE WINDS (Knots)
1 OPERATIONAL 2005 GFDL 2 CURRENT LOOP CURRENT
3 NEW LOOP CURRENT
1 OPERATIONAL 2005 GFDL 2 CURRENT LOOP CURRENT 3
NEW LOOP CURRENT
1200 UTC 26 AUGUST
12
IMPROVED PREDICTION OF HURRICANE DEAN
(2007) WITH UPGRADED GFDN
13
IMPROVED TRACK SKILL FOR DEAN
AVERAGE TRACK SKILL
14
NORTH BIAS ENTIRELY REMOVED
1 GFDL 2 NEW GFDN 3 OLD GFDN
AUG. 16, 0Z
AUG. 16, 12Z
15
CONSISTENT TRACK PREDICTION WITH NEW GFDN MODEL
FOR ALL OF DEAN
COMPOSITE OF TRACKS FOR NEW GFDN
16
PREDICTED MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS
1 GFDL 2 NEW GFDN 3 OLD GFDN
MAXIUM SURFACE WINDS (KNOTS)
CAT 3
AUG. 15, 18Z
AUG. 16, 0Z
CAT 4

17
  • SUMMARY
  • GFDN MODEL TO BE UPGRADED WITH PHYSICS AND
    RESOLUTION CONSISTENT WITH PRESENT VERSION OF
    NCEPS GFDL MODEL
  • TEST RESULTS INDICATED SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED
    RELIABILITY BOTH FOR TRACK AND INTENSITY
    PREDICTION WITH THE UPGRADED GFDN MODEL
  • IMPROVED PREDICTION INDICATED FOR HURRICANE DEAN
    (2007) AT ALL OF THE LEAD TIMES
  • GFDN, GFDL AND HWRF MODELS TO BE UPGRADED WITH
    IMPROVED INITIALIZATION OF THE LOOP CURRENT AND
    OCEAN EDDIES IN THE GULF OF MEXICO
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