Climate Process modeling Team (CPT)

1
Climate Process modeling Team (CPT)

• Ming Ji (NOAA/OGP)
• NAME Science Working Group
• Nov. 6, 2003

2
NOAA ISIP Program

• Provide the Nation with a seamless suite of
  climate forecasts and application products to
  manage risks and opportunities of climate impacts
  due to intra-seasonal to interannual climate
  variations

3
ISIP Program Components

• High-end model development
• (e.g., NCEP, GFDL, GMAO, CCSM)
• Experimental Prediction
• Forecast and Application Products Development
• Research and Development (e.g., NAME)
• Observing and understanding
• Improving physical representation in models
• Transition research into operations
• (e.g., improving operational models through CPTs)
• Legacies
• Thinking about impact on operations before
  thinking about the next process study

4
CPT as a Framework to Facilitate the Path of
Research to Operations

• CPT is an attractive framework for linking
  theory, process studies and experiments,
  diagnostics, process model development, climate
  and prediction models, and observations.
• CPTs focus on improvements in major (operational)
  climate models as deliverable

5
Climate Process TeamsCooperative Development
Process experiments and observations
Data, knowledge
Climate model development improvement
Process model development
Lack of focus, little interaction
6
Climate Process modeling and science Teams

• Improving key deficiencies of physical processes
  (parameterizations) common in climate models
• Model intercomparison projects are insufficient
  to address how to improve physical processes in
  models
• Bridging the large gap between process research
  (process observation and process modeling) and
  climate model development efforts
• Guiding (some of) future process studies
• Identifying sustained observational requirements

7
Approach

• Provide resources to small teams of
  observationalists, diagnostic scientists, process
  modelers, and (one or more) developers of climate
  models
• Focus on interaction deliverables (not
  manuscripts) that lead to demonstrated
  improvement in climate models
• Establish collaborative efforts between the
  research community and modeling centers
• Encourage active long-term mechanisms
• Management mechanisms (Institutional and
  programmatic commitment)

8
NSF-NOAA Pilot CPT Development
9
Pilot Phase Summary

• US CLIVAR developed concept and recommended
  scientific areas where rapid progress was likely
  (GFDL-CCSM Priorities)
• NSF and NOAA announcement (2003 2.5M per year)
  to address critical issues in IPCC class climate
  models
• Three Pilot CPTs established (2003) to
  demonstrate the concept
• Low-latitude cloud feedbacks on climate
  sensitivity
• Ocean mixing in overflow regions (e.g. over steep
  topography)
• Mesoscale eddy interaction with upper-ocean mixing

10
April 2002 GFDL/NCAR Workshop on Atmospheric
Model Development Recommendations for science
process teams What are the highest priority
problems on which to focus attention in order to
improve climate change models on lt 5 year time
scales? 1) Cloud feedbacks and climate
sensitivity How can we best confront our models
with observations to improve cloud prediction
schemes so as to reduce the uncertainty in global
climate sensitivity? 2) Deep tropical
convection and convective parameterization Defic
iencies in tropical convection schemes are a
major impediment towards creating better coupled
models and simulating regional climate change
11
Climate Feedback Differences Between GFDL and
NCAR Models
Low level cloud changes at 2xco2
Climate sensitivity rankings
12
(No Transcript)
13
Timeline for Pilot CPTs

• 2002-2003 Planning
• CCSM-GFDL workshop
• CPT white paper
• Tropical Bias workshop (double ITCZ)
• Vest in the community
• (CCSM-SAB, CLIVAR-SSC/SSG, WCRP/JSC, NRC)
• Spring 2003 Joint NSF-NOAA AO
• Summer 2003 Reviews
• Sept. 2003 Funding Decisions
• Low-latitude feedbacks on climate sensitivity
• Three high-end modeling centers (CCSM, GFDL,
  GMAO)
• Eight University research groups (PIs)
• Ocean mixing processes (2 teams, all Major OGCMs)
• Oct. 1, 2003 Start of 3-year projects

14
NAME CPTs ?

• Goal Improving operational weather and climate
  models through NAME obs and NAME science
• 2004 Planning
• High priority processes NCEP-GMAO-GFDL? Others?
• Diurnal Cycle?
• Convective Precip over complex terrain?
• Vest in the community
• (NAME, VAMOS, GAPP, PACS, others)
• Winter 2004/05 AO ?
• FY06 Starts ?

15
Low-latitude cloud feedbacks on climate
sensitivityLead PI Chris Bretherton

• Team
• Univ. Washington
• UCLA
• NW Research Assoc
• NCAR-CCSM
• SUNY/Stonybrook
• Colorado Univ.
• Colorado State Univ.
• NASA-Langley
• NOAA-GFDL
• NASA/GMAO

• Focus
• Response of subtropical boundary-layer cloud
  under climate change
• Cloud feedbacks from tropical convective cloud
  regimes (microphysics, convective, radiative, and
  turbulent processes)

16
Ocean mixing through gravity current
entrainmentPI Sonya Legg (WHOI)

• Focus
• Improved parameterizations of gravity current
  entrainment
• Examples overflow regions such as the Faroe Bank
  Channel, Antarctic, and other locations where
  deep-water masses are formed.
• Entrainment mixing impacts deep-water mass
  formation, and hence thermohaline circulation

• Team
• Woods Hole Ocean. Inst.
• NCAR-CCSM
• Lamont-Doherty Earth Obs
• Princeton
• Univ. of Miami/RSMAS
• NOAA-GFDL

17
Mesoscale eddy interaction with upper-ocean
mixing PI Raffaele Ferrari

• Focus
• Improved parameterizations of mesoscale eddies
  (these eddies transport significant amounts of
  heat, momentum, tracers, and freshwater)
• Focus on diabatic eddy flux component in the
  upper (mixing) ocean layer, which is not
  currently parameterized

• Team
• MIT
• NCAR-CCSM
• Univ of Mass. - Dartmouth
• UCLA
• UCSD-Scripps
• NYU-Courant Inst.
• Lamont-Doherty Earth Obs
• Florida State Univ.
• NOAA-GFDL

18
Community Responses

• NCAR CCSM Advisory Board (January 2002)
• Opportunity to brief members of CAB on CLIVAR and
  CPTs
• Positive feedback, comments
• Dont forget international participation!Importan
  ce of a systems approach - several modeling
  centers on the CPTs how will accountability be
  assessed? Mechanisms for implementation?
• Encouraged CCSM SSC to engage CLIVAR in
  initiating a CPT activity
• NRC Forcing and Feedbacks Panel (Feb 2002)
• Positive feedback support from NSF and NOAA.
  Comments
• How will one scope the bounds of the
  process/topic? - dont make it too narrow
  Importance of participation by coupled climate
  models (CCSM, GFDL) which topics/processes?
  difficulty in using/testing new parameterizations
  in climate models!

19

• JSC/WCRP (March 2002)
• International CLIVAR presented CPT as an idea
  under consideration by SSG
• CPTs promoted as an approach to link
  process-oriented activities and
  modeling/predictability activities
• CCSM/GFDL Joint Meeting (April 2002)
• Identified two (atm) topics of mutual interest
  for CPTs
• Cloud feedbacks and climate sensitivity
• Tropical deep convection and convective
  parameterization
• International CLIVAR SSG-11 (May 2002)
• Positive response ie approval
• Invite international modeling groups to
  participate how will teams be chosen
  (implementation)?

20
(No Transcript)
21
Develop pilot-phase CPTs in 2003

• Utilize existing data or data nearly in-hand
• Aiming at measurable progress in 2-4 yrs
• Identify high-priority processes (systematic
  errors)
• Focus on IPCC-class models (CCSM, GFDL)
• Share list with NSIPP, NCEP, DAO, GISS, and
  others to enlist their participation

22
Seamless Suite of Forecasts
Boundary Conditions
Initial Conditions