Climate Change

1
Climate Change the UK Policy Response

• David Muller, Vice Consul, Science and Technology
• British Consulate General, Atlanta

2
UK Commitment

• Climate Change is... the single most important
  issue that we face as a global community
• Prime Minister Tony Blair April 27 2004
• But frankly, we need to go beyond Kyoto. Science
  and technology is the way. Climate change,
  deforestation and the voracious drain on natural
  resources cannot be ignored. Unchecked, these
  forces will hinder the economic development of
  the most vulnerable nations first, and
  ultimately, all nations. We must show the world
  that we are willing to step up to these
  challenges around the world and in our own
  backyard
• Prime Minster to Congress July 18 2003

3
UK Policy Context

• NECESSARY
• Scientific Evidence
• Environmental Damage
• Energy Security
• ACHIEVABLE
• Targets and Achievements
• Portfolio Approach
• Technological Options
• AFFORDABLE
• Continued Economic Growth
• Costs of Inaction

4
Is action NECESSARY?
5
Scientific Consensus - Statement by National
Academies

• Statement by Eleven National Academies of Science
  (G8 plus China, Brazil, India), 7 June 2005
• it is likely that most of the warming in recent
  decades can be attributed to human activity
• the scientific understanding of climate change
  is now sufficiently clear to justify nations
  taking prompt action. It is vital that all
  nations identify cost-effective steps that they
  can take now, to contribute to substantial and
  long-term reduction in net global greenhouse gas
  emissions

6
CO2 levels are already unprecedented in the last
400,000 years
7
Recent impacts apparently due to human induced
climate change

• Hottest 10 years on record all since 1991
• Extent of droughts and intensity of rainfall
  increasing since 1970s
• Widespread melting of glaciers
• Loss of Arctic sea ice and melting permafrost
• Rising sea levels
• Increased intensity of hurricanes?
• Thames Barrier - used once pa in 1980, 24 times
  in 2000

8
How much climate change can we accept?

• Science suggests need to stabilise global
  greenhouse gases at maximum 550 parts per million
  (ppm) (Double pre-industrial levels)
• Even 550ppm results in serious climate change and
  implies a temperature increase of between 2 and 5
  C.
• And this implies preventing the emission of about
  7 Giga Tonnes of Carbon (GtC)/year by 2050

9
Climate Change - the environmental imperative

• Climate change, if unchecked, will have dramatic
  impacts for human welfare and natural
  eco-systems.
• with global average temperature up by a further 1
  - 2 C (2050?) we could expect to see
• Increased risks to ecosystems species
  extinction
• Increased incidence of heat waves, floods and
  droughts
• Adverse impacts on human health e.g. increases in
  the potential transmission of infectious diseases
  such as malaria and dengue fever
• Increased risk of famine
• with temperatures up a further 3 - 4 C (2080?)
• Ice-sheets at risk?
• Climate system instability?
• Disappearance of 1/3 to 1/2 of existing mountain
  glacier mass by 2100, with implications for water
  supply to many cities

10
UK Energy Security

• The UK is currently a net exporter of oil (to
  2010) but has just become a net importer of gas.
• demand for oil and gas is widely projected to
  rise by 2020 whilst domestic production is
  projected to fall.
• The UK needs to take a strategic approach to
  manage this transition effectively.
• Energy review announced to consider progress and
  challenges

• Source DTI 2002

11
Is action ACHIEVABLE?
12
The UKs strategic response to climate change

• COMMITMENT - To put UK on a path to 60 reduction
  in GHG emissions
• CREDIBILTY - By putting in place concrete
  policies to achieve first steps now
• LEADERSHIP - In building consensus around the
  need for multilateral change and firm commitments
  to take action to reduce carbon emissions within
  the framework of the UNFCC.
• CO-OPERATION - With other countries willing to
  make a 60 commitment, on accelerating the
  development of low carbon technologies, with
  developing countries on energy efficiency

13
UK Targets Achievements

• Targets
• Kyoto Emissions basket 12.5 below 1990 levels
  by 2008-2010
• Domestic CO2 emissions 20 below 1990 levels by
  2010
• Long term CO2 emissions 60 below 1990 levels by
  2050
• Achievements
• Annual UK GHG emissions down 15.3
• But CO2 tougher, well down overall but up 3 from
  1997 (would have been up 8)

14
A Portfolio Approach

• Emissions Cap and Trade
• EU Emissions Trading Scheme
• Climate Change Levy
• Recycled to support energy efficiency low
  carbon innovation
• Exemptions for renewables
• Renewables Obligation
• 10 by 2010, 15 by 2015, aiming for 20 by 2020
• Landfill Tax
• Can be offset against environmental projects
• Planning Policy
• Designed to promote and encourage development of
  renewables
• Transport Measures
• Fiscal measures, fuel efficiency, 5 biofuels
  obligation

15
Technological Options Energy Efficiency

• Technological Options
• Combined heat power (co-gen)
• Renewable sources wind, tidal, biomass, solar
• Nuclear? (UK is currently considering new
  nuclear build)
• Carbon capture and storage
• Energy Efficiency
• Around half of necessary CO2 reductions by 2020
• Surest most cost-effective way to achieve all of
  the UKs energy goals
• Simultaneously helps to reduce carbon emissions
  improve energy security take people out of fuel
  poverty
• Will save UK households and businesses over
  5.25Bn per year on their energy bills by 2010

16
Is action AFFORDABLE?
17
De-linking growth in GDP, Primary Energy
Consumption Emissions

• UK annual emissions down by 15.3 to 2002
• UK economy grew by 36 between 1990 and 2002.

18
Cost of Inaction - Recent economic losses
substantial

• European floods 2002
• 37 deaths
• 16bn direct costs
• European heat-wave 2003
• 26,000 deaths
• 13.5bn direct costs
• UK floods, autumn 2000
• Insurance pay-out 1.75bn
• UK hot summer of 1995
• Agriculture, water, retail, insurance losses
  1.75bn

19
Climate Change and Local Government
20
Climate Change and Local Government

• 75 of the worlds energy is consumed in cities
  and differences made locally will make a large
  impact globally
• London Initiatives
• Mayor has committed London to a 20 reduction of
  CO2 by 2010
• London Climate Change Agency a
  municipally-owned entity that will enter into
  partnerships with private industry to deliver low
  and zero-carbon projects, services and
  technologies
• Other London policies include Improved land
  management and development, congestion charging,
  improved mass transit

21
Conclusion
22
Conclusion

• Unrestrained climate change presents unacceptable
  risks
• Evidence is very strong with very broad
  scientific consensus
• Global control of greenhouse gas emissions
  essential to stabilise concentrations at a safe
  level
• Need concerted research effort internationally to
  improve understanding of impacts, response
  options, costs etc. Risks may be greater than we
  think.
• UK experience and forecasts shows that the shift
  to a low carbon economy is very affordable
  opportunity not cost.
• ...NECESSARY, ACHIEVABLE, AFFORDABLE

23
Contact InfoDavid Muller david.muller_at_fco.gov
.ukNatalie Pawelski natalie.pawelski_at_fco.gov.uk