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OVERVIEW OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE GECAFS PROJECT

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Production of traditional export crops (bananas, sugar, coffee, cocoa and rice) ... boat type etc), Social acceptability of other species, Aquaculture, mariculture ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: OVERVIEW OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE GECAFS PROJECT


1
OVERVIEW OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF THE GECAFS PROJECT
Jaiwante Samsoondar
2
OVERVIEW OF THE CARIBBEAN FOOD SYSYEM
  • Production of traditional export crops (bananas,
    sugar, coffee, cocoa and rice) ?PRIORITY
  • Production of non traditional crops for domestic
    and regional consumption (root crops, vegetables
    and fruits)
  • High input, labor intensive agriculture
  • Minimal usage of irrigation techniques, high
    dependence on rainfed agriculture
  • Agriculture practiced on marginal lands
  • Limited livestock production
  • Some level of self sufficiency in fish provision

3
EFFECTS OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION ON THE
ENVIRONMENT
  • High input agriculture leading to chemical build
    up in the soils, eutrophication of rivers, water
    quality degradation
  • Production on marginal lands, deforestation
    leading to high incidences of soil erosion, flash
    flooding, sedimentation in rivers
  • Micro-climate changes - changing soil pH, soil
    microbe interaction etc
  • Loss of biodiversity due to mono-cropping
    production system
  • Increase methane emission by livestock

4
FOOD PROVISION IN THE CARIBBEAN
  • Production f (yield, area)
  • Availability f (production, distribution)
  • Access f (availability, socioeconomic
    potential e.g. affordability,
    physiological potential e.g.nutritional
    quality)
  • Provision f (production,
    availability, access)

5
FOOD PRODUCTION
  • Crop production
  • traditional export crops (banana, sugar etc)
  • domestic/regional production (root crops,
    vegetables and fruits)
  • Fisheries
  • local consumption and export
  • Livestock
  • large poultry industry
  • devloping small ruminant industry
  • Agro- procecssing
  • large scale processing of traditionally exported
    crops (sugar and rice)
  • processing for non traditional exports (fish,
    fruits and veg, etc)
  • cottage industries

6
FOOD AVAILABILITY
  • Revenue generation from exports of traditional
    crops, service, tourism, and manufacturing
  • High imports of cereals and cereals preparation
    meat and meat preparation dairy products and
    eggs and fruits and vegetables - Imports are
    mainly from North American and European countries
  • Increased food availability in the region over
    the past 25 years due to the influx of cheaper
    imports
  • Domestic production affected by seasonality
    (dependence on rainfed agriculture) further
    increasing dependence on imports
  • Limited agroprocessing in the region
  • Lack of structured food storage systems/absence
    of food reserves

7
FOOD ACCESS
  • The limiting factor to food access in the region
    is the economic and physiological potential of
    people to purchase food.
  • The urban poor are the ones likely not to have
    the purchasing power to access food
  • The rural areas have limited purchasing capacity
    and nutritional security becomes a more critical
    problem to these people

8
Global Environmental Change Changes caused or
strongly influenced by human activities
  • Land cover soils
  • Atmospheric composition
  • Climate variability means
  • Water availability quality
  • Nitrogen availability cycling
  • Biodiversity
  • Sea currents salinity
  • Sea level

9
FEATURES OF CLIMATE CHANGE
  • The IPCC has reported that by the year 2100
  • Rise in global average surface temperature of 1.4
    - 5.8C relative to 1990
  • Rise in sea level by 0.09-0.88m
  • Changes in variability, frequency and intensity
    of extreme climate events

10
SYSTEMS THAT CAN LEAD TO EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS
IN THE CARIBBEAN
  • Tropical depressions, storms and hurricanes -
    intense and high volume rainfall, strong winds
    and rough seas
  • Tropical waves - spawn tropical storms and
    hurricanes, potential to cause intense rainfall
    and high sea swells
  • Inter tropical convergence Zone (ITCZ) -
    Potential to cause intense rainfall and often
    interacts with tropical waves
  • Upper level Troughs - results in explosive cloud
    development and intense rainfall
  • Cold front intrusion - results in rainfall in the
    eastern Caribbean during the dry season
  • El Niño related droughts

11
SOME PROJECTED IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE
  • Crops
  • reduction in crop yields
  • reduced water availability
  • salt water intrusion
  • Livestock
  • increased heat stress related deaths
  • Fisheries
  • habitat degradation
  • fluctuations in fish abundance
  • changes in upwelling rates

12
PROGRESS ON REGIONALISING GCMs
  • Regional GCMs have grids which are too large for
    small islands and as such climates of small
    islands are being predicted to change in the same
    way as the surrounding oceans
  • The Climate Studies Group, University of the West
    Indies, Mona (CSGM) has a project involving
    dynamic downscaling using regional climate models
    (RSM, MM5 derivatives. This project is being
    done in conjunction with the international
    research Institute for Climate Prediction and
    with MACC/CPACC

13
REGIONAL POLICY PRIORITIES
  • Food Security
  • Higher levels of food self sufficiency
  • Increased agricultural productivity
  • Increased diversification of agricultural
    production, processing and export
  • Trade Policy and Competitiveness
  • Food Safety
  • Rural Employment/ Poverty Alleviation
  • Sustainability of the food and agricultural
    sector and rural communities

14
ONGOING WORK ON CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE REGION
  • 1. Caribbean Planning for Adaptation to Global
    Climate Change (CPACC) which began in April 1997,
    and its follow-up Caribbean Mainstreaming
    Adaptation to Climate Change (CMACC).
  • 2. Development of the Caribbean Community Climate
    Change Centre
  • 3. University of the West Indies, Mona

15
GECAFS PROJECT DEVELOPMENT
  • 1. GECAFS Caribbean Food Systems Issue
    Identification Workshop, Trinidad, April 22 23
    2002 and
  • 2. Developing a Research Agenda for the
    Caribbean Food System to respond to Global
    Climate Changes. Trinidad, 19-20 September, 2002

16
WHAT MAKES THE GECAFS PROJECT?
  • Help develop policy at regional level, based on
    an interdisciplinary approach
  • Clearly identify, and demonstrate end-user
    involvement in all stages
  • Have a clear GEC dimension
  • Include all 3 GECAFS Themes with a strong design
    for internal integration
  • Include capacity development
  • Identify, build upon and add value to suitable
    ongoing regional research (e.g. CPACC, UWI etc)

17
APRIL WORKSHOP
  • Purpose
  • To identify main policy-related issues for a
    GECAFS study on the Caribbean Food System as a
    key step in developing detailed research plans
  • Objectives
  • Establish clear priorities for policy-relevant
    research issues within the GECAFS framework
  • Identify principal potential collaborators
  • Identify research issues that could contribute to
    existing and planned regional programmes
  • Design follow-up meeting and draw-up preliminary
    invitee list

18
APRIL WORKSHOP (contd)
  • Outcomes
  • Sensitization -
  • Caribbean scientists to GECAFS
  • GECAFS Team to the Caribbean Food System
  • Identification of priority policy issues - note
    that no policies specific to GEC
  • Identified key players and collaborators in
    assisting with the development of the GECAFS
    project

19
SEPTEMBER WORKSHOP
  • Purpose
  • Review key Climate Change impacts research and
    identify critical research topics

20
SEPTEMBER WORKSHOP (contd)
  • Outcomes
  • 1.Recognition that GEC was broader than GCC and
    that discussions should be held in that context
  • 2. Recognition that the GECAFS project has to
    incorporate all three science team and a MULTI
    disciplinary approach is needed
  • 3. Development of a project under the GECAFS
    principles

21
PROJECT DEVELOPMENT
  • Charge to working groups
  • .What more do we need to know about biophysical
    and socio-economic impacts of GEC on food
    systems?
  • .What are the adaptation possibilities for crops,
    fish and livestock to cope with GEC scenarios?
  • .What do we need to know about the biophysical
    and socio-economic consequences of those
    adaptations?
  • Scenarios
  • .Climate change and change in variability
  • .50 cm sea level rise by 2100
  • 50 loss of export revenue

22
PROJECT DEVELOPMENT (contd)
  • Recognised that work still need to be done on the
    issue of climate change. Recommendations made
    include the need for better projections of
  • Temp trends
  • Hurricanes and severe storms
  • ENSO teleconnections and intra-regional
    variability
  • Length and timing of Growing season (rainfall)

23
PROJECT DEVELOPMENT (contd)
  • The components of the GECAFS project are
  • .Impacts and vulnerability research
  • .Adaptation research/possibilities
  • .Consequence research

24
PROJECT DEVELOPMENT (contd)
  • Impacts and Vulnerability Research
  • Questions to be asked are
  • What are we going to eat?
  • How are we going to make money?
  • How are we going to manage change?
  • What is the expected loss in biodiversity?
  • What is the expected loss in productivity?
  • Specific research areas are
  • Livestock
  • Pasture composition and quality, Animal health
    (Pest Disease)
  • Animal productivity

25
PROJECT DEVELOPMENT (contd)
  • Arable (crops, veg, fruit)
  • Yield of Cropping systems, especially pest and
    disease
  • Fisheries (shell, fin and fresh water)
  • Migration (immigration/emigration) distribution,
    Disease related to temperature and climate change
    - induced salinity, Species composition
  • Food quality
  • Nutritional value
  • Extreme weather events
  • Disruptive effects of hurricanes and other
    regional extreme weather events on food systems

26
PROJECT DEVELOPMENT (contd)
  • Adaptation Research/Possibilities
  • Options available are
  • Sensitisation/retooling
  • New commodities
  • Change consumption patterns
  • Revision of policy and legislation e.g. drought
    resistant varieties/breeds
  • Increase availability and access to water
  • Greater dependence on foreign aid
  • Do nothing?

27
PROJECT DEVELOPMENT (contd)
  • Specific adaptation research areas are
  • Livestock
  • Use of alternative species (nutritional quality,
    social acceptability, environmental suitability),
    High nutrient-density pasture (quality)
  • Improved animal housing using local tech and
    materials, Pest Disease management
  • Arable
  • Alternative species and cropping systems (social
    acceptability, environment suitability), Water
    management (conservation, irrigation water
    pricing, grey water)

28
PROJECT DEVELOPMENT (contd)
  • Fisheries
  • Technical adaptation (fishing gears, boat type
    etc), Social acceptability of other species,
    Aquaculture, mariculture
  • Artificial reefs, Capacity building to exploit
    the Exclusive Economic Zones
  • General Areas
  • All agronomic options need to be underpinned by
    research on Policy issues
  • Markets, Incentives, Subsidies, Taxes, Trade
    agreements
  • Developing local raw materials for agroprocessing
    (e.g. milk)

29
PROJECT DEVELOPMENT (contd)
  • General Areas(contd)
  • Regional education and information policies using
    participatory approaches
  • Increase export revenue to be able to buy more
    food from outside region
  • Tourism (niche marketing)
  • Traditional cash crops (banana, sugar)
  • Alternative cash crops (livestock, prawns,
    spices)
  • Strengthening regional trade arrangement and
    regional institutions

30
PROJECT DEVELOPMENT (contd)
  • Consequences Research
  • Financial costs of adaptation (need money up
    front) credit institutions How to introduce
    innovative adaptations based on low financial
    needs
  • Increased marginalisation of vulnerable sections
    of society (on e.g. small holder arable growers,
    seine fishers)
  • Coastal Zone Management (e.g. Impacts of
    Agribusiness runoff on reefs)
  • Impacts of new species and cropping systems on
    human diet and environment
  • Diversification
  • Socio-economic impacts of increasing internal
    production

31
PROJECT DEVELOPMENT (contd)
  • Local markets, local agroprocessing,
  • Changes to Micro climate (hectare level)
  • of e.g. draining mangrove swamp for aquaculture)
  • Environmental impacts of increasing tourism
    sector
  • waste marine access and biodiversity env impact
    of alternative commodities opportunities (buff
    cheese)
  • Socio-economic consequences of strengthening
    regional institutions
  • Loss of independence
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