North Pacific Climate Regimes and Ecosystem Productivity

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North Pacific Climate Regimes and Ecosystem
Productivity
A partnership between
Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory
Alaska Fisheries Science Center
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California fits into the Bering Sea
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Alaska Feeds the Nation
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Alaska Seafood Products
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Estimates Of Pollock Abundance At Age
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Kittiwake Reproduction vs. Adult Pollockon the
Eastern Bering Sea Shelf
P. Livingston, NMFS / USFWS
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Protected, Endangered Threatened Species
Bearded seal
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Subsistence Harvests
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Tourism
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Climate Predictions from IPCC Analysis
Winter (NDJFM) Ocean Temperature Anomaly
(Relative to 1980-99 mean) IPCC A1B emissions
scenario
Prediction of minimum summer ice extent from
selected IPCC runs and actual ice extent (red)
Courtesy of J. Overland
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Sea Ice Extent and Average Water Column
Temperature
Mooring Site M2
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Climate Cold Pool Extent
1982-1986
2002-2006
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Temperature ( C)
Mueter Litzow (unpublished)
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Quasi-Decadal Trends in Wind Speed Cubed at St.
Paul Island
Hunt et al., 2002
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Bering Sea Hot Spots Location, Location, Location
Photo Kevin Bell
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Understanding Climate The Loss of Sea Ice
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USCG Healy April 10 - May 12, 2007
NPCREP seeks to develop a mechanistic
understanding of how climate change will affect
the marine ecosystems of the eastern Bering Sea,
and, thus, sustainable uses of its resources, and
the economic, social and cultural well-being of
the people who depend on it.
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Ice Sampling
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Questions

• What is the seasonal variability in ocean
  properties that distinguish the northern and
  southern middle shelf of the eastern Bering Sea?
• How does climate variability influence these
  properties?
• How might changes in climate affect upper trophic
  level organisms (fish, seabirds and marine
  mammals) by altering the structure and function
  of the ecosystem?

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The 70-m Isobath
The change in ice position in 2005
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The 70-m Isobath Line
May 2005
September 2005
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Mooring Observations - 2005
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Time Series of Mooring Observations
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Spring and Late Summer Zooplankton on the 70-m
Isobath Line
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Recent changes in the distribution of demersal
fish and invertebrates in the Bering Sea
Northward shift in center of distribution from
1982-2006
Rate very similar to North Sea (Perry et al. 2005)
From Mueter Litzow (In press)
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Climate and transport of larval snow crab
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• Modeled Optimal Settlement Areas (0-2 C)

1991
1995
1999
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Paradigms and Hypotheses for the Eastern Bering
Sea Ecosystem
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Ice, Wind, Bloom and Copepods
Early Ice Retreat Late Bloom, Warm
Water Large Copepod Biomass
Late Ice Retreat Early Bloom, Cold
Water Small Copepod Biomass
Hunt et al. 2002
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Oscillating Control Hypothesis
Cold Regime (Bottom-Up Regulation)
Beginning of Warm Regime (Bottom-Up Regulation)
Warm Regime (Top-Down Regulation)
Beginning of Cold Regime (Both Top-Down and
Bottom-Up Regulation)
Zooplankton
Larval Survival
Abundance of Piscivorous Adult Fish
Juvenile Recruits
Hunt et al., 2002
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Copepod Abundance
(Smith Vidal, 1986)
Courtesy of Napp and Shiga
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Coyle et al., 2008
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Effects on FishPollock and Yellowfin Sole

• Early ice retreat
• Late bloom
• Warm SST
• High pelagic prod.

• Late ice retreat
• Early (ice-edge) bloom
• Cold SST
• High benthic prod.

From Mueter et al. 2006
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In Peril
Red King Crab
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Acknowledgements

• NOAAs Climate and Ecosystems Program
• NOAAs Fisheries Oceanography Coordinated
  Investigations
• North Pacific Research Board The National
  Science Foundation
• The R/V Thomas G. Thompson, USCG Icebreaker
  Healy, NOAA Ship Miller Freeman (and coming soon
  FSV Oscar Dyson)

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Thank you