Technologies Trajectories

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Technologies Trajectories

• Technologies Identified
• Technology Trajectories
• Disruptions
• Building the future

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Technologies Identified

• What is a Technology?
• Technology Clusters
• Functionalities

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What is a Technology?
Chip Evolution (xHz Hyperthread, Bus W, )
Design (CAD, Clock ,)
Packaging (Soldering, Casing,)
Manufacturing (Clean Room, Vibration,)
Assembling (Pins, Contact,)
Lithographic Process (Masking, nm, Wafer size,)
Technologies identified
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What is a Technology?
Quantum Communications
Secure Communications
Detector
Photon Modeling
Quantum Applications
Maxwell Equations (Statistical Modeling,)
Technologies identified
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Behavior Technologies

• Affective Computing
• Agents
• Avatar

Technologies CLUSTERS
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Coding Technologies

• MPEG
• Public Key Cryptography

Technologies CLUSTERS
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Communications Technologies

• 3G
• Bluetooth
• Cable TV network
• Digital Cell. Base stations
• Galileo
• GPS
• Modems
• Optical Fibre
• Passive Distribution Ntw
• Power Line Transmission

• Radio Connectivity
• Rings
• Satellite
• Software Radio
• Trunk
• xDSL
• UWB
• WiFi
• WPAN
• Home Networking

Technologies CLUSTERS
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Devices Technologies

• 3D Printers
• bio-printers
• Cell phones
• CRT
• Digital Video Recorder
• e-books
• Flat Screen LCD
• Information Appliances
• Notebooks
• PDA

• Personal Computers
• Printers
• Projection Displays
• Robot
• Scanner

Technologies CLUSTERS
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Power Technologies

• Batteries
• ZnMg batteries
• Fuel Cells
• Solar Cells
• Micro piezoelectric

Technologies CLUSTERS
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Processing Technologies

• Digital Signal Processing
• Distributed Processing
• Graphic Processing
• GRID Computing
• Microprocessor
• Mobile Processing
• Molecular Computing
• Quantum Computing
• Software

• Voice syntheses - recognition

Technologies CLUSTERS
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Storage Technologies

• Distributed Storage
• DRAM
• Hard Disk
• Optical Disk
• Read Only Memory
• Holographic Memory
• Polymer Memory
• Silicon Based Memory
• Semantic Data Base

Technologies CLUSTERS
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Terminal points Technologies

• Active Tags
• Beacons
• Bio-Marker
• Bio-electronics
• Bio-metrics
• Digital Camera Sensors
• e-ink
• Gesture capturing
• Haptic Interfaces
• Holography
• Intelligent antenna

• MEMS
• Micro delivery chip
• Nanotechnologies
• OLED
• Optical Tags
• Passive Tags
• Sensors
• Wet-ware

Technologies CLUSTERS
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Functionalities
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Technologies Trajectories

• Storage
• Processing
• Information Visual Display
• Printing
• Information Retrieval
• Communications
• Bandwidth
• Human Interfacing
• Data Capturing
• Pin Pointing

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Technologies Trajectories Communications

• Paradigms
• Evolution of connectivity
• Transmission related technologies /
  infrastructures

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Communications - Paradigms

• Broadcast
• Television

Trajectories
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Communications - Paradigms

• Broadcast
• Television
• Peer to Peer over Broadcast

Trajectories
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Communications - Paradigms

• Broadcast
• Television
• Peer to Peer over Broadcast
• Multicast

Trajectories
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Communications - Paradigms

• Broadcast
• Time Sharing

Trajectories
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Communications - Paradigms

• Broadcast
• Time Sharing
• Client Server

Trajectories
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Communications - Paradigms

• Broadcast
• Time Sharing
• Client Server
• Peer to Peer

Trajectories
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Communications - Paradigms

• Broadcast
• Time Sharing
• Client Server
• Peer to Peer
• Cluster to cluster

Trajectories
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Communications - Paradigms

• Broadcast
• Time Sharing
• Client Server
• Peer to Peer
• Cluster to cluster
• Sticker

Trajectories
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Communications - Connectivity Evolution
Trajectories
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Communications - Connectivity Evolution

• Wire is better than wireless (technically)

Trajectories
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Communications - Connectivity Evolution

• Wire is better than wireless (technically)
• Wireless is better than wired (humans)

Trajectories
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Communications - Connectivity Evolution

• Wire is better than wireless (technically)
• Wireless is better than wired (humans)
• Flatter networks
• Till 1980ies Electromechanical Exchanges
• 1980- 2000 Electronic exchanges
• 2000 - Router, Bridges, Add Drop
• 2015 - Full optical networks?
• 2020 - Mesh Networks, Terminals Networks?

Trajectories
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Communications Tech. / Infrastructures

• wire-based transmission

• Top Speed 10s TB by 2010, 100s by 2020
• Evolution optoelectronics, optical switching,
  autonomic systems
• Metropolitan networks ring gt star gtgt mesh
• Today USA (leading), Japan, Europe
• Tomorrow ?

Trajectories
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Communications Tech. / Infrastructures

• wire-based transmission
• wireless based transmission

• Architectural evolution towards a mix of
  technologies
• Software Radio, UWB Picocells by 2008
• Interference managed by terminals (?) 2020
• Today Europe, USA, Japan (all leading)
• Tomorrow USA (leading?), Europe, Japan, China ?

Trajectories
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Communications Tech. / Infrastructures

• wire-based transmission
• wireless based transmission
• Switching technologies

• l switching, routers/bridges
• mSwitching in terminals and network edges
• Optical switching (?) in the next decade
• Today USA, Japan (research), Europe (lagging)
• Tomorrow USA, Japan, Europe

Trajectories
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Technologies Trajectories Processing

• for Calculus
• for capturing information
• for the display of information
• for communications

Trajectories
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Processing - for Calculus

• Microprocessors

• Following Moores law gtgtgt 28 GHz by next decade
• Embedded in any object in the next decade
• Today USA
• Tomorrow unlikely to change

Trajectories
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Processing - for Calculus

• Microprocessors
• Supercomputers

• Massive parallel architectures gtgtgt 100 PFLOPS
  by 2010 gtgtgt EFLOPS by the next decade
• Scientific and Institutional application
• Today USA, Japan
• Tomorrow unlikely to change

Trajectories
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Processing - for Calculus

• Microprocessors
• Supercomputers
• GRID Processing

• Peaking by the end of this decade
• Scientific and Institutional application
• Gaming and communities
• Today USA, Europe
• Tomorrow unlikely to change

Trajectories
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Processing - for capturing information

• Microprocessors

• low power consumption for sensors
• Embedded in any object in the next decade
• Today USA
• Tomorrow open field

Trajectories
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Processing - for capturing information

• Microprocessors
• Digital Signal Processing

• low power consumption for sensors
• Embedded in any object in the next decade
• Today USA
• Tomorrow unlikely to change

Trajectories
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Processing - for the display of information

• Graphic Microprocessors

• Billions of polygons per second by 2010.
• Demands level over 100 Bpps
• Embedded in microprocessors in the next decade
• Today USA, Japan
• Tomorrow Japan

Trajectories
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Processing - for the display of information

• Graphic Microprocessors
• Television image processing

• Converging monitor and television
• Embedded in the screen in the next decade
• Today Japan, Korea
• Tomorrow open field

Trajectories
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Processing - for Communications

• Microprocessors

• Growth in speed and decreased consumption
• Direct optical interfacing
• Microprocessor on SIM
• Today USA, Japan, Europe
• Tomorrow unlikely to change

Trajectories
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Processing Power penetration

• As cost go down
• 1950 - 1970 Mainframe
• 1970 - 1984 Mini
• 1985 - 2000 PC
• 1995 - . Low perf Embedded
• 2003 April 1 billion microprocess produced by
  Intel
• 2008 - . Medium perf embedded
• 2020 - . All embedded

Trajectories
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Disruptions

• Transformation of Products into Services
• The Disappearance of the Computer
• Ubiquitous seamless connectivity
• Changing Traffic Patterns
• Infinite Bandwidth
• Disposable Products
• Autonomous Systems
• From Content to Packaging
• The emergence of Virtual Infrastructures

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Looking for x
X
Disruption
Time
Disruptions, signpost
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Looking for x in processing
?
Smart Obj. GRID
volume
Disruptions, signpost
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Looking for x in telecommunication
?
- Mesh Ntw - SwRadio - Autonomic Systems
Routers Bridges Add/Drop
Electromech Switches
Hierarchy
Electronic Switches
Time
Disruptions, signpost
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From Products to Services

• Technological Enabling Factors
• Embedding of communications capabilities
• Rising of profiling
• Cheaper production processes

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From Products to Services

• Technological Enabling Factors
• Market Driven Factors
• Products becoming commodities
• Loss of differentiation capabilities
• Increased copycat possibilities

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From Products to Services

• Technological Enabling Factors
• Market Driven Factors
• Industry Impact
• Transformation into service companies
• Shortening of products life cycle
• Strong increase in call centers
• Automated customised assistance
• Increased globalisation of the market
• Restructuring of the value chain

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From Products to Services

• Technological Enabling Factors
• Market Driven Factors
• Industry Impact
• Market Sectors Affected
• Health care
• Entertainment
• Transportation
• Consumer appliances
• Education

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From Products to Services

• Technological Enabling Factors
• Market Driven Factors
• Industry Impact
• Market Sectors Affected
• Likeliness to happen
• Disruption is already occurring
• Connectivity bundled as a service feature
• Appliance bundled in connectivity

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DisruptionsDisposable Products
Today
2008
2020
DISRUPTIONS
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Building the Future

• Crucial Technologies
• Ambient Evolution
• Five Challenges

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Five Challenges

• De-localized Innovation, localized application

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Five Challenges

• De-localized Innovation, localized application
• Making an impact across market segments

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Five Challenges

• De-localized Innovation, localized application
• Making an impact across market segments
• ROI

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Five Challenges

• De-localized Innovation, localized application
• Making an impact across market segments
• ROI
• Fore-sighting

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Five Challenges

• De-localized Innovation, localized application
• Making an impact across market segments
• ROI
• Fore-sighting
• The Grand Plan and Micro Actors

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