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Concepts of Futures Studies ?????: ??????????????? ???


Futurology (futures studies) is the study of the medium to long-term future trends. ... Futurology also includes normative (?????) or preferred futures, but the real ... – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Concepts of Futures Studies ?????: ??????????????? ???

Concepts of Futures Studies?????
  • ??? ???
  • ??????????????
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  1. Bell, Wendell, Foundations of Futures Studies
    Human Science for a New Era, Volume 1,
    Transaction Publishers, 1997. ????
  2. http//
    gy (http//

  • Futurology (futures studies) is the study of the
    medium to long-term future trends. Extrapolation
    (??) is just one of many dozens of methods and
    techniques used in futures research (as
    scenarios, Delphi method, brainstorming,
    morphology (????) and others). Futurology also
    includes normative (?????) or preferred futures,
    but the real contribution is to connect both
    extrapolated (exploratory) and normative research
    to explore better strategies. 2
  • The Delphi method is a technique aimed at
    building an agreement, or consensus  about an
    opinion or view, without necessarily having
    people meet face to face, such as through
    surveys, questionaires, emails etc.
  • A normative statement, on the other hand, is a
    statement regarding how things should or ought to

What are the purposes of futures studies? 1
  • to discover or invent, examine and evaluate,
    and propose possible, probable and preferable
    futures. The futures field is an integrative
    science of reasoning, choosing, and acting.,
  • the study(of ethical foundations) and
    fostering of deep caring about the freedom and
    welfare of future generations are among the most
    important purposes of future studies., p88

Lasswells 5 tasks for projecting the future
p49, 1 , QA
  1. The clarification of goals and values (???)
  2. The description of trends
  3. The explanation of conditions (or, the
    description of assumptions)
  4. The projection of possible and probable futures
    (or consequences) for intended policies
  5. The value evaluation of consequences and
    selection of policy alternatives (in order to
    achieve the preferred goals) (?????????????)

What futurists seek to know?
  1. what can or could be (the possible) (?????) ,
    what is likely to be (the probable) (???????) ,
    and what is ought to be (the preferable) (????)
    ., p73
  2. what causes change, the dynamic processes
    underlying technological developments on the one
    hand and changes in the political, economic,
    social, and cultural orders on the other., p111

Nine major purposes of futures studies, Bell ,
p111, QA
  1. The study of possible futures(see p14)
  2. The study of probable futures(see p15)
  3. The study of images (????????) of the futures
  4. The study of the knowledge foundations of futures
  5. The study of the ethical foundations of futures

Nine major purposes of futures studies, QA
  1. Interpreting the past and orientating the present
  2. Integrating knowledge and values for designing
    social action (see p1619)
  3. Increasing democratic participation in imaging
    and designing the future
  4. Communicating and advocating a particular image
    of the future

Why many fields need futures studies?
  1. In facts, one of the reasons that futures
    studies is needed is precisely for the purpose of
    improving the wisdom of human decision making and
    the effectiveness of human action by means more
    self-conscious and adequate futures thinking.,
    p70, 1

Is futures studies a field?
  1. Because of its diversity, it may be more correct
    to call futures studies a multi-field or
    trans-disciplinary field, rather than a field.,
    p71, 1

As other fields, futurists make predictions.
p112, 1
  1. Rather, the purposes are more complicated and
    more far-reaching than mere prediction and
    involve the construction and evaluation of
    alternative futures for the purpose of increasing
    human control over the future.
  2. Rather, futurists predictions (forecasts,
    projections, prophecies, etc. --- whatever they
    are labeled) are usually multiple, conditional
    (?...????), contingent(??????????,empirical),
    corrigible(?????????), and uncertain.

Conclusion for prediction, p107, 1
  1. Futurists can and do make predictive statements,
    but they cannot be certain that their predictions
    will be accurate.
  2. In order to increase the effectiveness of
    decision making, futurists must consider not just
    one future outcome but a range of alternative
    possibilities for the future, assuming different

Conclusion for prediction, p107, 1
  1. In order to encourage responsible action,
    futurists must evaluate possible and probable
    futures according to some scale of values so as
    to judge how desirable various alternative
    futures will be.

The study of possible futures
  • trying to look at the present in new and
    different ways, often deliberately breaking out
    of the straitjacket (??) of conventional,
    orthodox (????????), or traditional thinking and
    taking unusual, even unpopular, perspectives.
  • It involves creative and lateral thinking in
    order to see realities to which others are blind.

The study of probable futures
  • It focuses on the question of what the most
    likely future of some specified phenomenon would
    be within some stated time period and under
    specified contingencies( ????????).

More on the 7th purposea sad example , QA
  • Where Armero, Colombia
  • When November 13, 1985
  • What the Nevado del Ruiz volcano erupted
  • Geologists successfully predict the probable
    coming eruption, and publish this prediction in
    many Colombian newspapers more than a month
    before the catastrophe.

More on the 7th purposea sad example , QA
  • Both Armeros mayor, Antonio Rodriquez, and the
    local Red Cross recommended that the town be
  • The result no evacuation and 21,000 people died
  • Why the social processes involved in putting
    that knowledge to effective use in designing and
    implementing remedial social action were

More on the 7th purpose, p90
  • In designing social action, futurist must do
  • Seeing, integrating, and synthesizing many
    diverse knowledge and values we have of our
    complex physical, environmental, governmental,
    and social systems
  • A very difficult job to do!
  • Creating images, whether good or bad, of the
  • These future images provide guidance mechanisms
    for social action.

More on the 7th purpose, p90
  • Inventing, evaluating, and selecting policy
    alternatives to achieve these future images
  • Details on consequences, values, and event
    probabilities must be carefully examined for each
    alternative. (Go back to p8.)