Currency, US 30 Year Treasury Bonds, Nasdaq, DAX, Karachi Index and Commodity - Technical Analysis - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Currency, US 30 Year Treasury Bonds, Nasdaq, DAX, Karachi Index and Commodity - Technical Analysis

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Adam Smith Associates Pvt Ltd conducts business of arranging Trade Finance and providing consultancy, advisory, structuring and management services relating to trade finance transactions. We have a strong focus on commodity trade finance. We work with corporations and banks in India and other countries to manage complex trade finance structures. In India, Adam Smith Associates Pvt. Ltd. corporate office is located in the capital city - New Delhi, while a branch is at Indore. Internationally, its affiliates are based in Singapore, Dubai, Hong Kong, Tokyo and Nigeria. – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: Currency, US 30 Year Treasury Bonds, Nasdaq, DAX, Karachi Index and Commodity - Technical Analysis


1
Adam Smith Associates Pvt. Ltd.
  • A Global Trade Finance Company

www.adamsmith.tv
http//adamsmithassociates.blogspot.in/
https//adamsmithassociates.tumblr.com/
2
Currency, US 30 Year Treasury Bonds, Nasdaq,
DAX, Karachi Index and Commodity - Technical
Analysis
Adam Smith Associates Blog July 9, 2017
3
US TREASURY BONDS
Adam Smith Associates Blog July 9, 2017
While the 10 year has already broken the rising
channel 2 days ago the 30 year bonds are now at
the rising trendline near 152. So a further
decline in the bond market will get this second
confirmation of a break down in the bond market.
We would be at the start of a 3rd wave down in US
bonds. We have discussed this scenario and its
impact in this months Long short report.
4
US TREASURY BONDS
Adam Smith Associates Blog July 9, 2017
5
USDCAD
Adam Smith Associates Blog July 9, 2017
The last post identified the Wave B high at
61.8. From there we have a 5 wave decline so
the down trend is established. We may get the
first retracement of the fall when the 5 wave
decline completes but the larger trend down will
resume again, till CA is achieved. The RSI is
getting oversold. 1.33 near the wave 4 high would
be a resistance level during a counter trend
move up. After that we may head to 1.25 in wave
3 of C.
6
USDCAD
Adam Smith Associates Blog July 9, 2017
7
EURO
Adam Smith Associates Blog July 9, 2017
The euro/dollar did not achieve 1.15 and it is
hard to say yet that prices have started wave 2
down. When they do we get a retracement of the
entire 5 wave rise back to the wave 4 low near
1.11. Till then it is open to interpretation.
But the overall picture is clear, that we are
ending a 5 wave rise and due for retracement
before a larger rally resumes.
8
EURO
Adam Smith Associates Blog July 9, 2017
9
NASDAQ
Adam Smith Associates Blog July 9, 2017
So while the Dow tested its highs again the
Nasdaq was again pulled down as all the FANG
stocks gave up. The Nasdaq 100 index broke the
29/06 swing low. The neckline of a hs broken
the pattern points to 5420.
10
NASDAQ
Adam Smith Associates Blog July 9, 2017
11
DAX
Adam Smith Associates Blog July 9, 2017
DAX the German index has not confirmed a trend
reversal on long term charts yet but it did form
a doji star on the quarterly chart. That it did
so after achieving the target of 51 shown by the
box makes it an important candle to watch as the
trend could be complete here.
12
DAX
Adam Smith Associates Blog July 9, 2017
13
KARACHI 100
Adam Smith Associates Blog July 9, 2017
A very steep fall in the Karachi 100, and it is
in wave 5/5, but the 5th wave did not achieve
the Fibonacci or channel target. So I leave it
open as to whether the final top is in or not.
While possible ideally it should extend some
more.
14
KARACHI 100
Adam Smith Associates Blog July 9, 2017
15
Copper
Adam Smith Associates Blog July 9, 2017
Copper Quarterly momentum crossed over to the buy
side as a positive indication. We still have to
get over the quarterly averages at 2.73 and 2.84
for a larger move to 3.80 to develop.
16
Copper
Adam Smith Associates Blog July 9, 2017
17
Gold
Adam Smith Associates Blog July 9, 2017
Gold broke the neckline of the last several
months at 1230. The neckline measurement target
coincides with the 78.6 retracement near 1160.
However the rising trendline from the 2015 Dec
bottom is at 1173. 61.8 is at 1188. That gives
us two levels to watch for oversold readings and
a trend reversal to capture the bottom in gold.
1188 and 1172-1160. It is normal for wave E to
either be short or go below the lower line
causing a selling exhaustion before turning
around. Right now staying below 1232 is bearish
near term.
18
Gold
Adam Smith Associates Blog July 9, 2017
19
Soy Meal CBT
Adam Smith Associates Blog July 9, 2017
Soy Meal prices made a double bottom near 292,
and broke out of the falling trendine for wave
of 2. A bottom maybe now in place for a larger
3rd wave up to start. Initial hurdle is 330 at
61.8 of Y. Then the X at 354 after that we
should be heading to a new high above 432.Failure
to go above 330 and 354 can keep us in wave 2 by
some alternate patters.
20
Soy Meal CBT
Adam Smith Associates Blog July 9, 2017
21
Silver
Adam Smith Associates Blog July 9, 2017
Silver hit the 20dma resistance at 16.90 and sold
off. Staying below this level Silver would be in
wave iii down to 15.52.
22
Silver
Adam Smith Associates Blog July 9, 2017
23
Wheat CBT
Adam Smith Associates Blog July 9, 2017
After being bullish global wheat prices in my
last update I was negative as prices reacted
from the falling channel of the last few years.
But we now have a breakout so it is best to
stick to the original outlook. Wheat CBT should
be in wave 3/3 up now. Staying above 470 the
trend is up and the next two swing resistance
levels are 524 and 615. The monthly Bollinger
band is also near 500. So getting past the
500-524 range would expand volatility
meaningfully.
24
Wheat CBT
Adam Smith Associates Blog July 9, 2017
25
Sugar CSCE
Adam Smith Associates Blog July 9, 2017
The relentless fall in global sugar may have
ended. Wave v of C down was forming for a while
and extending. Now it counts as a completed 5
wave decline and yesterdays bounce gets the RSI
out of oversold territory. The recent low is near
the 2016 bottom seen in sugar so it is a good
level to hold near 12.5. This is also wave 2
down for the longer term. The next move up
should mark the start of a 3rd wave advance in
global sugar prices.
26
Sugar CSCE
Adam Smith Associates Blog July 9, 2017
27
Coffee CSCE
Adam Smith Associates Blog July 9, 2017
Coffee prices bounced back from the oversold
territory, meaning an RSI of below 30 on both
the daily and weekly charts. The near term a
falling trendline from the wave d high is at
131, so a move above 131 should be a final
confirmation of a trend reversal. The quarterly
chart below shows the big picture. The
development of a triangle from 2010 onwards
which is mostly wave B, and sets it up for wave C
up a major new bull move for Coffee prices. Lets
get a little imaginative here. If CA is
achieved over 5 years Coffee prices go to 700
from 125 now. That is quite crazy. The triangle
breakout will be above 168. Note it is also
possible that prices remain within the triangle
for now and only go to 168 to come back to 120
again. So unless we breakout the triangle is
still forming. For the year ahead however a move
to 168 can be seen.
28
Coffee CSCE
Adam Smith Associates Blog July 9, 2017
29
Disclaimer
Adam Smith Associates Blog July 9, 2017
We empower our clients by providing values added
services that benefits them with the right
knowledge and boosts their business decision on
Domestic and International Trade. To provide
the best, we tie up with leading technical
analysts in India to offer latest Relevant
updates on currencies, commodities, domestic and
internal stock and commodity indices and special
reports on internal treasury, crude and many
other related subject to enable your decision
making. While the intention of this blog is to
offer this wholistic view to our website visitors
and clients, the information contained on blog
is for general information purposes only. dam
Smith Associates assumes no responsibility for
errors or omissions in the blog contents.
http//adamsmithassociates.blogspot.in/
https//adamsmithassociates.tumblr.com/
30
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