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2016 Commodity Outlook: El Niño To Shake Things Up?

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With 2015 going into the history books soon, it’s the perfect time for a 2016 commodity outlook. The forecast may surprise you! – PowerPoint PPT presentation

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Title: 2016 Commodity Outlook: El Niño To Shake Things Up?


1
Commodity Trading Research
2016 Commodity Outlook El Niño To Shake Things
Up?
2
Welcome to Commodity Trading Research Your
premier site for fundamental and technical
analysis for profitable Commodity Trading. For
more info on Commodity Trading Research visit our
website www.CommodityTradingResearch.com
3
  • Get Your Free Report On The 3 BEST Commodity
    Stocks for 2016!
  • Well tell you about this
  • Special Offer
  • at the end of the video!

4
  • Hi, My name is Justin and Im with Commodity
    Trading Research, today were reviewing our
    recently published article

5
  • 2016 Commodity Outlook El Niño To Shake Things
    Up?

6
  • In recent weeks weve been discussing whats in
    store for commodities in 2016.After a disastrous
    2015, investors are searching for signs of a
    bottom in assets like crude oil, gold, corn, and
    coffee.

7
  • Lets pick up right where we left off In the
    first part of this 2016 commodity outlook series
    we discussed oil, natural gas, gold and silver.

8
  • While theres certainly an oversupply of energy
    commodities at the moment, I suspect well see a
    bullish shift in market structure in 2016.

9
  • As for precious metals, not only are fundamentals
    and sentiment still overwhelmingly bearish but
    the technical trend is still solidly to the
    downside.

10
  • Until inflation becomes an issue, or the Federal
    Reserve backtracks on their plan to raise
    interest rates, precious metals will likely stay
    under bearish pressure.

11
  • As you can see, its a mixed bag when it comes to
    the worlds most widely traded commodities.

12
  • What about lesser-known assets?

13
  • First of all, let me point out that very few
    commodities escaped the 2015 wipeout unscathed.
    Only cocoa, orange juice, and cotton are turning
    in positive performance since the start of the
    year.

14
  • That leaves a lot of commodities down in the
    dumps Take coffee, which is down 31
    year-to-date. With the luscious bean trading at
    multi-decade lows near 1.20 a pound investors
    are wondering if an uptrend will ever return to
    this market.

15
  • Their questions may soon be answered
  • Analysts at the International Coffee Organization
    foresee production cutbacks coming from several
    major producing countries.

16
  • As a result, even more emphasis will be placed on
    Brazil, the worlds largest coffee producer.

17
  • While its tough to say if Brazil will be able to
    pick up the slack in the next production cycle, I
    can tell you this
  • The price of coffee is quite oversold on a
    long-term basis.

18
  • That fact increases the odds of a2016 rally,
    should weather related worries actually come to
    fruition. The get an idea of what Im talking
    about, look tothe sugar market.

19
  • The commodity is seeing a substantial price
    upturn in recent weeks due to similar technical
    and fundamental market factors.

20
  • That leaves us with grains

21
  • All three of the major grain markets- corn,
    soybeans, and wheat- are trading at multi-year
    lows thanks to abundant global supplies. Its
    becoming quite clear farmers are getting darn
    good at what they do.

22
  • Thanks to modern technology, theyre producing
    remarkable quantities of grains in record time.
    As a result, global grain stocks are teeming with
    inventory.

23
  • Therefore, its not surprising to see corn and
    wheat trading at their lowest prices since the
    2009 financial crisis. Is there any hope for corn
    and soybean bulls in 2016?

24
  • As of right now, its not looking so good.
    Thanks to one of the strongest El Niños ever
    recorded developing in the Pacific Ocean, its
    likely these two commodities stay subdued in 2016.

25
  • After all, the disruptive weather pattern
    typically brings well-timed rainfall to the US
    plains. The situation will likely contribute to
    another abundant corn and soybean harvest next
    year.

26
  • What about wheat?

27
  • While El Niño provides the US with ample rain,
    the opposite happens in Australia. The
    continent suffers higher temperatures and lack of
    rainfall.

28
  • Since Australia is one of the worlds largest
    wheat producers, an output downturn couldprovide
    support for the commodity in 2016.

29
  • The same goes for cotton
  • El Niño induced drought in India, the worlds
    second largest producer of the commodity behind
    China, tends to support prices.

30
  • Given the multi-year flat line in cotton prices,
    cotton bulls will welcome any disruptive force
    sending prices higher.

31
  • To sum it all up

32
  • Theres still plenty of uncertainty in store for
    commodities in 2016. Shaky global economic growth
    mixed with a strong US Dollar will be a force to
    reckon with, just as it is in 2015.

33
  • But thats not to say there wont be bullish
    opportunities in hard assets.
  • This years El Niño is shaping up to be one of
    the largest on record.

34
  • As a result, many soft and grain commodities
    could see price gains as the weather pattern
    alters production. In case youre unaware, these
    are exactly the types of opportunities we focus
    on in the Commodity ETF Alert.

35
  • This bi-monthly service keys you in on the
    commodity-focused asset with the most profit
    potential. Each months recommendation is in a
    carefully selected commodity ETF or commodity
    producing company.

36
  • With a subscription costing a mere 8.25 a month
    (99/year), its one the least expensive ways to
    keep abreast of commodity trends and profit
    opportunities.

37
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38
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  • Commodity Trading Research.com

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39
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